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The Forum > General Discussion > Moore's Law is never kept

Moore's Law is never kept

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What Moore Actually said was:

"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer."
Posted by ruawake, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 7:52:03 PM
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StG: if I had cut and pasted it from anywhere
you could find it on the net
and you cant

Q&A: my point is that unrealistic expectations
lead to impractical decisions
and impractical decisions are best avoided

Foxy: the fact that the tech will inevitably plateau
doesn’t imply that I think we should give up on development
just not expect it to go on forever

Easy Times: I didn’t say technology was going to stop
but that any particular branch including ‘chip speed’
eventually runs out of puff
although you raise a good point
- eventually somewhere in the far distant future
all technologies will plateau
if we dont destroy ourselves in the interim
Posted by Rob513264, Wednesday, 18 June 2008 7:21:02 PM
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Rob: "my point is that unrealistic expectations lead to impractical decisions and impractical decisions are best avoided."

Thanks for that, it is the crux of your argument after all.

However, who decides what is unrealistic or not? Do you not agree that many advances in science and technology were conceived in the possible but were born in the probable?

Corollary: That which may be impractical today may very well be practical tomorrow.
Posted by Q&A, Wednesday, 18 June 2008 8:17:03 PM
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