the assertion of Moore’s Law that
“computer capability doubles every 15 years”
Ignores History

All Lines of Technological Development
Go through the same phases
Invention, Development
Diversification, Development
Convergence, Development
Plateau & Stasis
this happens with cars, planes, washing machines – everything

We still seem to be in Early Diversification phase
with computer tech but it will eventually Plateau

Furthermore not long after something Plateau’s
there comes a time when Development is so hard won,
and benefits come in such small increments
that further development is no longer economical
because the costs of the Development Process
exceeds the benefits of the Developments gained
and you have reached Stasis

if improving ‘capability’ is pushed beyond that point
it can become so expensive that it may even have to be reverse-teched
to remain economically viable

this has already happened in Formula 1 racing
where they have had to ban a host of ‘improvements’
including engines that rev to 20,000rpm and dynamic aerofoils
because ‘the postage costs more than the package is worth’

Take for example a Mercedes limousine from 40 years ago
the 600SEL 6.3litre Saloon
there would actually be very little difference
in the driving from modern Mercs
quiet, comfortable, powerful & safe

while some sub-disciplines have developed a lot
like air bags within the car
the actual car part hasn’t changed that much
but go back another 40 years before that to 1928
and there would be a big difference in the driving

go back another 40 years to 1888
and you have the very first motorized vehicle
not much like riding in a modern limousine at all

eventually every technology hits some barrier
the overcoming of which is simply more expensive than it is worth
we dont know when or what will cause computer development to plateau
but it will plateau

Where did ya cut and paste that from?.

In another age we used to call it the "Law of Diminishing Returns". I guess I have plateaued or yikes, am I in stasis?!

Actually, what is your point anyway?

eventually every technology hits some barrier
the overcoming of which is simply more expensive than it is worth
we dont know when or what will cause computer development to plateau
but it will plateau

Rob,
I have met many everyday people who are naturally & instinctively aware of that. But I suppose amongst the educated this kind of assertion requires intensive study & fancy rhetoric. Ah, & of course public funding !

Dear Rob,

I'm not sure that it will plateau. Funding for Research and Development is being increased by our current Government. It's trying to forge a link with business corporations to invest more in future developments. Finding solutions to our problems has become a global issue - and this will continue to grow, not decrease. It must.
With all the problems confronting us - we really can't afford to let our hands lie idle - and not do anything about it. Solutions have to be discovered - which includes new discoveries, new technologies, new ways of doing things. It would be wonderful if we could find solutions to the medical problems that plague us (cancer, aids, etc), if we could solve the problems associated with climate change, and so on...

Anyway, that's just my opinion, for what it's worth.

Firstly Moore’s law states that computer chips double in speed every 18 months and so far this has been fairly acute and there are no signs of this changing for the foreseeable future.

F1 racing has had some limits put on it. It either has an RPM limit or a weight limit thus champ cars are about 25kmh faster then F1’s.

Rob513264 – What improvements to cars do you think can be made? Go faster? Or what? The reason cars have not changed much is there is not much point in changing them! Cars can only be controlled at certains speeds by humans and this point was reached decades ago. The technology is not broke it’s just that there is no market to improve it further

Rob I have to say I totally disagree with you I think technology is only going to increase in its rate of advancement not slow down!

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/singularity

What Moore Actually said was:

"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer."

StG: if I had cut and pasted it from anywhere
you could find it on the net
and you cant

Q&A: my point is that unrealistic expectations
lead to impractical decisions
and impractical decisions are best avoided

Foxy: the fact that the tech will inevitably plateau
doesn’t imply that I think we should give up on development
just not expect it to go on forever

Easy Times: I didn’t say technology was going to stop
but that any particular branch including ‘chip speed’
eventually runs out of puff
although you raise a good point
- eventually somewhere in the far distant future
all technologies will plateau
if we dont destroy ourselves in the interim

Rob: "my point is that unrealistic expectations lead to impractical decisions and impractical decisions are best avoided."

Thanks for that, it is the crux of your argument after all.

However, who decides what is unrealistic or not? Do you not agree that many advances in science and technology were conceived in the possible but were born in the probable?

Corollary: That which may be impractical today may very well be practical tomorrow.