The Forum > General Discussion > Australian wholesale electricity prices are falling.
Australian wholesale electricity prices are falling.
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Let's unpack this IPA "analysis" for what it is: a partisan think tank spinning worst-case modelling into a headline.
The IPA has opposed every climate policy since the Howard era, even ones their own side introduced. Their numbers are based on assumptions that deliberately maximise cost and minimise innovation.
//$290 billion tax burden over a decade//
That's not a real tax. It's an estimated marginal abatement cost - i.e. the economic cost of reducing emissions under various policy levers, including private investment, not just tax-and-spend.
Even the Treasury notes that most of these costs would be borne by businesses transitioning tech and processes, not direct household taxation. And as always, the IPA leaves out the cost of inaction, which Deloitte has modelled at $3.4 trillion by 2070 for Australia if we delay the transition.
//Five times greater than Gillard's carbon tax…//
Yes, because it's 2025, not 2012.
The economy is larger, the targets are tighter, and the scope has expanded. Also, that "carbon tax" under Gillard didn't crash the economy. Power emissions fell. Compensation was provided. And after it was repealed, emissions rose and prices rebounded - so much for that disaster narrative.
//International literature suggests carbon prices must be higher…//
That same literature also says net-zero is achievable with smart policy mixes, including electrification, renewables, efficiency, and targeted incentives - not just carbon pricing. Countries like the UK and Germany are decarbonising with combinations of pricing, investment, and regulatory tools.
Cherry-picking a partisan model, quoting it as gospel, and pretending it's the only economic reality is about as information illiterate as you can get.