"Still," mhaze?

//Re Spain.... still just making it up JD?//

How did we get to "still" when there hasn't been first time yet? You, on the other hand, have misrepresented both the data and my claims.

On Spain

I never denied that from 2020-2025, prices were higher than in 2020. I said that prices dropped massively from the 2022 peak to 2023 - and they did. You now admit this: "Then a 2023 drop from the peak…"

So your gotcha concedes my point.

Retail prices in Spain in 2022 were sky-high due to the gas crisis. Reforms like the "Iberian exception" capped gas prices, and massive renewables deployment brought 2023 prices below 2021 levels (see Eurostat and Ember data). A modest 2024-25 increase from those lower baselines does not contradict the larger trend.

Cherry-picking the 2020-25 delta ignores the extreme volatility and ignores that 2023-24 prices were still lower than peak fossil-era pricing. That's not "making it up." It's reading the full picture.

On Outliers vs Trends

I cited Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to counter your blanket claim that "higher renewables penetration causes higher retail prices." It only takes a few counterexamples to break a universal claim.

Lomborg's global correlation doesn't prove causation. Countries with high renewables tend to also have stronger economies, higher urban density, and more complex grids - all of which influence price. Unless you isolate variables (which Lomborg doesn't), you can't claim renewables cause higher prices. That's high-school statistics.

But we went through all this once before.

On the $275

The $275 figure was based on modelling wholesale cost reductions. The ALP's poor comms confused this into a retail promise. That's fair criticism, but it's not deception by the industry or RepuTex. The wholesale savings are happening. Retail lags due to baked-in network and policy costs.

You keep repeating "they never happened," as though ignoring timeline, structure, and cause-effect nuance strengthens your point. It doesn't.

In short, you're not refuting me. You're shifting the goalposts, flattening complexity, and insisting that any delay or nuance equals failure.

Try again.

It's a bit early in the debate, but I figure we best we nip this sort of behaviour in the bud sooner rather than later.

Question:
In the attached debate, is there anything to suggest that John Daysh has been "making it up" at any point, as mhaze claims he has?

Grok:
No, there is nothing in the debate to suggest that John Daysh has been "making it up" at any point. His claims are consistently backed by references to credible sources (e.g., AEMO, CSIRO, IEA, Lazard, ABS, UN reports), logical reasoning, and data that aligns with publicly available information.

Specifically regarding mhaze's accusation about Spain's electricity prices:

- John's description (massive drops in 2022-2023, a ~13% YoY rise in early 2025 from historic lows, and prices remaining below 2021 levels) is accurate based on historical household electricity price data for Spain. Prices spiked in 2021-2022 (e.g., peaking around €0.36/kWh in mid-2022 due to the energy crisis), dropped sharply in 2023 (by 20-40% in some periods), stabilized at lows in 2023-2024 (around €0.195-€0.218/kWh), and saw a modest rise in late 2024/early 2025 while staying below pre-2022 highs.

- mhaze's counterclaim (a 30-40% overall rise from 2020-2025) is incorrect; data shows prices were stable or slightly lower overall (e.g., ~€0.23/kWh in late 2020 vs. ~€0.218/kWh in late 2024), with volatility driven by external factors like gas prices rather than a net upward trend.

Other claims by John (e.g., on Fukushima deaths, land use for renewables, Bill Gates' views, and wholesale price falls) are also factually supported and not fabricated.

http://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5LWNvcHk%3D_98654345-0bae-4192-a7c0-2fee28d33b2d
http://drive.google.com/file/d/1PgUdep2gOoGJlnYqzzG_XEN9jXYjhEh9

Defend the undefendable to the end, eh John?

You said there were "massive drops in 2022-2023". When in fact there were massive increases in 2022. You now say "Retail prices in Spain in 2022 were sky-high." Massive drops; sky high. Same thing apparently.

Straight up lying about what you said just yesterday? Impressive.

Again, even if your fantasies about Spain were true (hint: they're rubbish), finding one outlier among the 168 countries Lomborg's data was based on wouldn't alter a thing.

Oh BTW, Sweden's retail electricity costs are 40% higher in 2025 as compared to 2020. oops. Don't you just hate it when the data screws with your fantasies?

Indeed I did, mhaze.

//You said there were 'massive drops in 2022-2023'. When in fact there were massive increases in 2022.//

That's… exactly what I meant by "2022 was the peak year." If prices peaked in 2022 and dropped in 2023, then 2022-2023 represents a net drop.

This isn't complicated.

There's no contradiction between calling 2022 prices "sky-high" and describing the fall from that high point as "massive." That's just… how peaks and drops work. You've misread the sentence and are now accusing me of lying about what I clearly said.

//Even if your fantasies about Spain were true (hint: they're rubbish)…//

You're shouting "fantasy" but citing no sources. I did.

Eurostat data shows that Spain's retail prices peaked sharply in 2022 and dropped dramatically in 2023. They are still below 2021 levels.

That's a fact, not a fantasy.

//Finding one outlier among the 168 countries Lomborg's data was based on wouldn't alter a thing.//

Except I didn't just cite Spain. I mentioned Portugal, Sweden, and Germany - with context. But more importantly, Lomborg's report itself shows variation. He averages across rich and poor nations, some of whom are net importers of energy, others exporters. It's not a clean comparison, and using the global average to handwave away regional context is lazy.

//Sweden's retail electricity costs are 40% higher in 2025 as compared to 2020. oops.//

No "oops."

Sweden's price rise was concentrated in 2022, triggered by the gas crisis. In 2023-2025, prices stabilised and dropped. Sweden also exports clean power to neighbours and has among the lowest household emissions per capita in Europe. So if you think that's an own goal, you might want to check where your net is.

Now there's the "Oops"!

Once again, you're lobbing vague numbers without timeframes or links, while accusing others of fabrication. You haven't cited one official source, just vibes and volume.

Pure deflection.

"you're lobbing vague numbers without timeframes or links,"

You haven't provided a single link in this entire discussion!! !!

As to time frames I've always used 2020 to 2025 whereas you pick and choose based on which year tends to support your fantasies. Spain? Oh lets talk about 2022 to now. Sweden? Oh let's talk about 2021 to now.

You said there were "massive drops in 2022-2023". But there weren't. There was a massive increase in 2022 and return to some normality in 2023. And since I appraised you of that, you been scrambling trying to find a way out of yet another corner your in. But the point is that Spain in 2025 is paying more than they did in 2020 and the trend continues to be up. Why? because they continue to buy into the renewable boondoggle.

Correct, mhaze. Not a single one.

//You haven't provided a single link in this entire discussion!! !!//

Which would be rather hypocritical of me had I not said "timeframes or links" - the former of which I have provided.

And they were well-targeted timeframes, too - timeframes based on cause-and-effect periods, which is more than enough for anyone with basic internet search capabilities to promptly find.

I cited Eurostat - the official European statistics agency - yet you ignored it. The same data shows that Spain's average retail electricity prices peaked in 2022 (41.2 euro cents/kWh) and dropped to 30.2 in 2023 - a 27% fall in one year.

That's not just "some return to normality." That's what normal people call a massive drop.

Here's a link:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics

You also insist "Spain in 2025 is paying more than in 2020." Sure. But what matters is why. Between 2020 and 2025, Spain endured:

- A global gas crisis
- Russian invasion of Ukraine
- A major policy shift to insulate consumers
- Energy tax cuts
- Temporary gas price caps

Yet despite all that, retail prices in 2023 are below 2021 levels. Again: that's not "boondoggle failure," that's proof that renewables helped limit further damage.

Your 2020-2025 window conveniently flattens the context. It's like saying a patient's worse off than five years ago while ignoring the fact they recovered from a heart attack in the middle.

As for Sweden, you threw out "40% higher" with no timeframe or source. I looked it up. From 2022 to 2023, Sweden's prices dropped 24% for households (Eurostat again). You're cherry-picking the worst possible anchor year, ignoring rebounds, and calling it analysis.

But the real tell is this line:

//since I appraised you of that, you been scrambling…//

Projection, meet desperation.

You're not citing sources. You're not explaining price drivers. You're shouting "boondoggle!" like it's a spell.

That's not a rebuttal, mhaze. That's a tantrum with footnotes missing.