Bezza,

You make a valid point there about the costs of replacing wind and solar installations. As I've said before, though, the costs of renewable technologies, including disposal and recycling, have been dropping significantly and are expected to continue doing so.

Renewable energy also has the advantage of being modular, allowing for gradual upgrades and replacements rather than the huge upfront costs and long construction times associated with nuclear power.

Advancements in energy storage, which are making systems like grid-scale batteries more efficient and affordable, should also be considered. These technologies help address the intermittency of renewables and reduce the need for extensive backup systems.

Finally, don't forget the environmental and safety costs of managing nuclear waste and decommissioning old plants, which add to the overall expense of nuclear energy.

I think the whole argument, while disregarding cost, comes down to
can we afford the backup batteries needed for W/S ?
The first question that has to be answered is are there records of
a wind drought in Australia's history.
In the case of Europe a couple of years back it lasted all of the
winter from memory.
Germany relied on France & Norway or Sweden for power.
Until we know the facts about the wind then we cannot make a
commitment to wind.
There is no way we can afford enough battery storage for a season like that.
I have never heard the matter of wind drought brought up in Australia.
It would be an absolute disaster if it occurred after all w/s were completed.
If the risk is also present in Australia then it totally rules out w/s.

Yes John, there are systems that can scan all the cells in a solar
system and pinpoint the failing cells. Not cheap but wiring needs to
be done at installation time. Very costly afterwards.
Considering the millions of panels could any team keep up with the
failing rate from about the 15th year ?
These are the questions muggins like me are aware of but politicians
just say err what ?
If we get this wrong there will be room for firewood collectors in the job queues.
There was an article on here by Geoff Carmody on battery costs.
https://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=23000

It has to be accepted that the whole solar and wind project falls
over if the wind fails. We cannot afford the $Trillions for batteries.

Bezza,

Solar panels degrade over time, yes, but technological advancements are making them increasingly durable and efficient. Modern panels often come with 25-year warranties, and regular maintenance can be scheduled rather than just reacting to failures. The maintenance costs are generally offset by the savings from lower energy costs.

On wind reliability, Australia has more consistent wind patterns than Europe, where long wind droughts can happen. Still, it’s important to manage the risk of intermittent wind. This doesn't mean we should abandon wind and solar; instead, it highlights the importance of having a diverse energy mix. Combining solar, wind, hydro, and other renewable sources can provide a balanced and reliable energy supply. Australia, with its abundant sunshine, stands to gain a lot from using a combination of solar and wind.

Battery technology is improving rapidly, and costs are dropping every year. While current battery solutions might not yet be ideal for storing energy for months, they are increasingly viable for daily and weekly storage. Additionally, other storage solutions like pumped hydro, which has been successfully used in Australia, can complement battery storage.

Relying solely on one type of energy - whether it’s wind, solar, or nuclear - is not practical. A diverse mix is crucial for stability and reliability. For Australia, this means integrating solar, wind, hydro, and potentially even hydrogen or other emerging technologies.

Investing in renewable energy and storage technologies is an investment in the future. It creates jobs, reduces greenhouse gas emissions, and can lead to energy independence. While the upfront costs may be high, the long-term benefits in terms of environmental impact, energy security, and economic savings are substantial.

Renewable energy does present challenges, but dismissing it entirely in favour of other sources overlooks the benefits and rapid advancements in this field. A balanced, well-thought-out energy policy that includes multiple sources and technologies is important for securing sustainable and reliable energy into the future.

I read Geoff Carmody's article, but thanks for the link anyway. I also responded to it with some additional points that appeared to have been overlooked by him.

I think the whole argument, while disregarding cost, comes down to
can we afford the backup batteries needed for W/S ?
The first question that has to be answered is are there records of
a wind drought in Australia's history.
In the case of Europe a couple of years back it lasted all of the
winter from memory.
Germany relied on France & Norway or Sweden for power.
Until we know the facts about the wind then we cannot make a
commitment to wind.
There is no way we can afford enough battery storage for a season like that.
I have never heard the matter of wind drought brought up in Australia.
It would be an absolute disaster if it occurred after all w/s were completed.
If the risk is also present in Australia then it totally rules out w/s.
I looked at the BOM and they have a page of Australia average wind
speed by the month.
The winter months are worse with June being very low wind speeds
over almost all of Australia including Queensland.
The East coast shows virtually zero wind speed.
The areas west of the divide showed about 2 knots and all of southern Australia about 2 knots average.
As turbines do not produce any output till about 5 to 10 knots I just
do not see how we could get a big enough battery to cover several months. A completely separate set of solar cells to charge the
batteries would be needed for the short days and cold weather.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/averages/wind-velocity/?period=jun&maptype=10m

https://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=23000

The 2nd link is Carmodie's article on batteries.

On the face of it there seems to be no possibility of wind and solar
being sucessful over the winter months.
Zilch, nothing to argue about, it is all over, no wind no electricity.

OK John, I wonder what the cell guarantees cover, 66% output ?
I find at this time of year my cells produce almost nothing till
about 10am and then 50% o/p till 2pm when they start dropping off.
So any solar farm dedicated to charging the batteries has a very small
window to charge the batteries to cover 4pm till 9am of a still cold night.
Sun trackers would help but cost more and the day is short at this time of year.
I have not seen anyone discuss this particular problem of low wind
speed short days and long cold still nights. Brrr