I suggest an alternative scenario; far from being out-manouevred the Europeans and Scandinavians will have the last laugh. I'm not sure about global warming having stopped since my neck of the woods recorded the highest temperature ever just two weeks ago. Fossil fuels are running out with crude oil evidently peaking in 2008. Cheap coal will only be plentiful for another 20 years with China's domestic output expected to peak by 2015 or earlier. Australia cannot supply enough to make up the shortfall. So just how smart is it to prolong dependence on fossil fuels?

Moreover I think it is unlikely that even half of the population of China and India will ever make it to the middle class in the sense of owning cars and air conditioned homes. But a frugal middle class is already the norm in Europe. We won't have to wait long because I think it will all become clear in the next five years.

Yes Tasy, the europeans should look back, & have a good laugh, at themsleves.

Hopefully they will get a good laugh at how the good sense of the third world saved them from the stupid position they had got themselves into, with the global warming scam.

Pity that third world was not strong enough to save them from the last scam, the Y2K bug.

With even more luck they will see how their lefty governments were prepared to exploit the scam to rip them off, massively.

This luck could just lead to a change for the better in europe. Could, but probably won't. They have let the bureaucrats get too much control, all ready.

The Chinese are very clever. They are making massive changes and advances in alternative power whilst the West does nothing. So when climate change really begins to bite where will we be going for the technology we need? Where do the solar panels on the roof that supply my power come from? China of course
Also the insistence that there should be mandatory inspections was telling the Chinese we do not trust them. That was a mistake. Don't expect the Chinese to sign anything if we are going to call them liars.
We need to follow the lead of China and get on with it without insisting we will do nothing until everyone else does.

what if the "US$200- 400 billion - per annum" compensation to developing nations were actually used to set up and reinstate a manufacturing industry in these western nations that neglected them for cheaper and inferior imports thus getting us in this fix?

From my usual source.

".....The only means by which the West was able to pursue its goal of gross ego self-fulfillment through unregulated and boundless self-indulgence was that of subordinating and exploiting the human resources of all of the rest of humankind and all of the natural resources of the entire Earth-world.However, the rest of humankind (especially in the East and the underdeveloped nation-states) is, rightly, no longer willing to be subordinated to and exploited by the West---and the natural resources of the Earth-world are, now, at the breaking point of depletion and pollution.

Paradoxically (and tragically)---even though the situation is thus and so, and rather than understanding and renouncing the fundamental wrongness and futility of the Western effort to achieve unregulated and boundless self-indulgence and thorough exploitation of the "other" and all the natural resources of the Earth-world--ALL the "tribes" on Earth are now intent on EQUALLY exercising the failed self-indulgence effort Western "tribes" have long been doing.

The cultural political, economic and social basis of the current WORLD-CRISIS is that EVERYBODY in the world is trying to live like Westerners did when Westerners were able to exploit all other nation-states and all of the Earth-worlds natural resources. Everybody in the world is now competing, in a dreadful situation of confrontation, for what has become a very limited reserve of human and natural resources---like dogs competing for the same chunk of meat.

That having been said, yes the Chinese have been able to take a really long view of things and have been doing the necessary strategic planning re accessing resources all over the world.

Chinese Civilization has been around for a very long time, and hence by cultural inheritance, have a long term perspective whereas we Westerners are really very much the adolescent kid on the block, and like all adolescents pig-ignorant about the things that really matter.

Even so it seems to me that China is one vast inter-connected disaster zone waiting to happen. With massive environmental and social problems etc etc and so on.

And they just as exploitative as the West ever was.

From another perspective yes we Westerners are vastly outnumbered by the people of Chinese and Indian origin---the always fearful specter of the "oriental hordes". Two Wongs dont make a white--the white Australia policy

And why should they treat us kindly or with respect if they achieve enough power? We never ever treated them with respect.

From the ordinary tribalistic (even a tribe of one billion or more) point of view, revenge for very real, centuries long, abuses and humiliations would be an entirely justifiable course of action for them to pursue.

Whoopee according to the author and his 'stink', I mean think tank, AGW isn't happening. Stink tanks (Freud would make much of my slip) tend to make a conclusion then select evidence to support it. Science however, does that in reverse...silly scientists.

The Lead article on author's site was
"IPCC Ignored Warning That Glacier Forecast Was Wrong" was right to say was that the 35 years timetable was based on an educated opinion. Naughty, naughty, hyperbole... and the authors site is... At best it focuses on the sizzle (politics)...forget the steak(facts).

What it doesn't say was the unprecedented decrease in glaciers generally, the 80 or so that have gone in the USA this century, and the reductions in the glaciers in the Andes, Africa, PNG (4th tallest mountain.) and the results from satellite "GRACE" and Like.

So what if these glaciers took 10,000's of years to accumulate. Short of an ice age the consequences of their demise will be diabolical.

Did I mention the proven reductions (grace) in the depth of the arctic/Antarctic ice.
yep his site is independent...objective? well not so much.Still it's well.....er.....anyway.

If he is right that it's all gonna go away in the public' s eye I only hope that the environment, Global climate is equally swayed by his loaded prose.

The deniers may well win the battle but we'll lose the war.

As hasbeen, in his infinite scientific knowledge, has said we should say thanks the 3rd world (well actually...international politics but let's not quibble) .

The author is a social anthropologist with an interest in how people/societies react to situations such as AGW. He probably knows about as much as I do about glaciology, the troposphere etc. The thesis of his article seems to be: Copenhagen failed (as he predicted) due to international politics and therefore climate science is discredited. I find that line of argument ridiculous as should every reader. And by the way Hasbeen, if you read up on Y2K hopefully you will stop using it as an example of a hoax (I certainly didn't spend 1999 fixing a hoax!).

Whilst I suspect the Author is largely right that we are going to fail to take effective action on climate change, I think it won't be any kind of victory; it will be a serious mistake that will hurt future generations greatly.

For all the claims that climate science is on shaky ground, that perception flies in the face of actual science done by the world's leading scientific institutions. Accusations and insinuations are about the most of it. Hot spikes in warming trends are held up as proof of cooling, short lived cold spells across large areas (whilst deliberately ignoring above average temperatures across even larger areas) are held up as cooling; a decade with 8 of the 10 hottest years on record, the highest sea level rise, the greates retreat of glaciers and melting of ice-sheets is held up as "cooling"!

Warming hasn't stopped and only by dismissing actual science from the world's leading scientific institutions can any claims otherwise be sustained. It's not climate science that's promoting climate change delusion, it's people like Benny Peiser. Failure to deal with AGW is going to hurt us deeply.

Dr. Peiser, it’s hard to argue the reality presented in your article, unless its fingers in ears shouting La, La, La.

I question your issue of “loss of Western dominance”, I’ve never seen the climate change phenomena as a tool for conflict between the West and developing nations. More as an attempt by the EU to undermine US carbon intensive industrial dominance through energy costs/penalties.

It seems to have backfired badly since the EU is left with the only carbon trading system but with no means to draw more funds from outside the EU through carbon trading. Even less chance of imposing carbon compliance penalties or adverse trading terms on the rest of the developed world.

The EU’s carbon market has collapsed to $18.50, it’s riddled with fraud, “green revenues” are in decline and the EU is already geared to 46.7% (heading for 50.0%) of its GDP being spent on government. The US figure is 20.5%, the EU has no chance. I think the EU might have created the seeds of its own destruction. This is entirely predictable when you are run by committee.

In my view, the other alliances you mention are a consequence of the EU’s strategy rather than a cause. The EU Parliament was founded on protectionism as a trading block, it has basically and quite cynically, offered the rest of the world a trade off, tariff relief in exchange for “Carbon Club Membership”.

Given the vast sums of money already invested in AGW and Green energy (HSBC estimates $74 Billion over the last ten years), this phenomena will take years to untangle financially. Whilst some good might come out of this level of investment, it seems likely that green energy from the private sector will shrink (high costs/low returns) and the public sector will have to take the initiative. This will further compound the EU’s problems.

China, Russia and India seem set to only “tune” carbon intensity but with absolutely no external monitoring. The undeveloped world and green NGO’s will have to put their begging bowls away.

I can’t wait for Copenhagen MKIII in Mexico.

Taswegian - if fossil fuel production peaks in the very near future, anthropogenic CO2 emissions will decline without the help of taxes or financial engineering. I see so many AGW believers defending the IPCC story by arguing that in any case we need to deal with the imminent depletion of fossil fuels, when in fact this is a direct contradition.

Benny Peiser draws attention to the loss of credibility of the IPCC.
If I might enumerate;

1. The hockey stick.
2. The email publicising. Not a hack, but an inside job I believe.
3. The New Zealand temperature problem.
4. The Himalayan glaciers melt by 2035 blunder.
5. The acceptance of donations to study the melt while knowing it was wrong.
6. The Stern report error & cover up of the amount of damage expected
from hurricanes, cyclones etc etc.
7. The ripping off of the Europeans by the Russian Oligarchs of CO2 credits.
Have I missed any ?

This it would seem is only the beginning.

I think the demands of the developing countries for money was a
transparent bit of blackmail and together with China's demand that
"Trust me" was the way to go when we all see blatant Chinese ripoffs
of intellectual property rights, was a trust too far.

I just wonder how many countries were aware of the seven points I made
above and basically had had enough.
Copenhagen was doomed by the IPCC's bad management and developing
countries greed and western distrust.

Examinator, you can trivialize and excuse the IPCC’s performance as minor errors if you wish however, these are not trivial because $billions of public money has and is being spent as a direct consequence of their “assessments”.

(IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch10, p. 493) "Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.”

The original report by glaciologist V. M. Kotlyakov has been held by the IEP. His assessment is, given that if the IPCC’s “predicted” warming continues, there will be 80% glacial loss by “2350” not 2035, note that even this is based upon the IPCC’s warming “prediction”.

The IPCC makes yet another blunder in the AR4 report, the Table 10.9 to which they refer shows a retreat rate of 134 m/yr but the actual rate was 23 m/yr, this is because of a small error. The IPCC divided the timeframe quoted by 21 years instead of 121 years!

There are now dozens of indictments leveled at the IPCC and their key personnel because almost every aspect of their “people and processes” has been compromised. If the people and processes are compromised, all their output is compromised.

For the IPCC and its lead authors it is only the accuracy of their output and their probity that matters. If it is determined that their assessments are so wrong that financial or other damage has been done, it is fraud by either malicious intent or incompetence and they will face the music.

You keep hissing at those you label deniers. I would rather reject the IPCC’s nonsense and be accused of denial, than to face the world as a true believer of AGW supported by the IPCC’s fraudulent rubbish. Don’t you realize the by making excuses for them you are accepting their culpability?

Like I said before, you lack the embarrassment gene.

Errrr, I have not heard anyone say;

"The science is settled !"

recently, have you ?

Amended post.
Now for Amazongate !
http://wattsupwiththat.com/

Benny Peiser draws attention to the loss of credibility of the IPCC.
If I might enumerate;

1. The hockey stick.
2. The email publicising. Not a hack, but an inside job I believe.
3. The New Zealand temperature problem.
4. The Himalayan glaciers melt by 2035 blunder.
5. The acceptance of donations to study the melt while knowing it was wrong.
6. The Stern report error & cover up of the amount of damage expected
from hurricanes, cyclones etc etc.
7. The ripping off of the Europeans by the Russian Oligarchs of CO2 credits.
Have I missed any ?
Yes
8. Amazon forest effects same source as Glaciagate

This it would seem is only the beginning.

I think the demands of the developing countries for money was a
transparent bit of blackmail and together with China's demand that
"Trust me" was the way to go when we all see blatant Chinese ripoffs
of intellectual property rights, was a trust too far.

I just wonder how many countries were aware of the seven points I made
above and basically had had enough.
Copenhagen was doomed by the IPCC's bad management and developing
countries greed and western distrust.

It now seems to be getting ridiculous, now a daily event.
I suppose once people find one case they go looking and find others.
I started on this being agnostic and not knowing which way was up.
I am now very sceptical and will take a lot of convincing that AGW is true.