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The Forum > Article Comments > Climate change is already costing lives and dollars > Comments

Climate change is already costing lives and dollars : Comments

By Barrie Pittock and Andrew Glikson, published 22/12/2009

Climate change impacts and costs are not merely something for future generations to bear, they are being experienced now.

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>> any science, from whatever source that is not submitted and accepted by the IPCC
>> it is just more research and opinion, unofficial.

nonsense.

>> Q1, please provide any evidence whatsoever, of global warming and
>> Q2, if there is evidence, please explain any links to atmospheric carbon.

then should we summarise proust?
Posted by bushbasher, Wednesday, 23 December 2009 3:13:08 PM
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Andy1 Will you please stop cutting and pasting bits of propaganda from your favourite websites disguised as you own posts. They are inane pseudo scientific ramblings.

Sea Level is NOT rising. The main expert on this topic has studied the Maldives sea levels rigorously for 20 years.

Here is a Scientific Paper outlining his clear conclusion:

http://www.junkscience.com/jan04/nils-morner_1.pdf
Posted by Atman, Wednesday, 23 December 2009 8:24:08 PM
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>> Sea Level is NOT rising.

you're sure of that?

>> The main expert on this topic

according to whom?

>> has studied the Maldives sea levels rigorously for 20 years.

and what fraction of the globe is the maldives?

>> Here is a Scientific Paper outlining his clear conclusion:

proving what? if i find another paper in the same journal, with an opposing conclusion, what then?

>> They are inane pseudo scientific ramblings.

it's not clear that you yourself have any idea how science works.
Posted by bushbasher, Wednesday, 23 December 2009 11:23:59 PM
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Bushbasher and Andy1, let’s set the record straight on sea levels. During the 20th century, the rate of mean global sea-level rise was 1.8mm per year or 180mm (approximately 7") over the century. The 20th century sea level rise of approximately 1.8mm per year has been calculated, in part, by analysis of 84 tide-gauges. Tide gauges measure sea levels relative to coastal benchmarks.

The tide gauge data correlates closely with coral development data showing a similar rise in sea levels, along with sediment cores that date back to the 1300s and, since the mid-1990s, satellite altimetry. The altimetry shows a slight increase in the global mean sea level (GMSL) of up to 3.2±0.4mm over a 10 year period (1994-04) though this is too short a time period to assume either a long-term trend or an anthropogenic signal; furthermore, a 60-day average smoothing curve indicates sea levels peaking around 2006 and declining by 2008 – again, this is too short a time period to determine long-term trends.

Sea level does not rise or fall uniformly over the oceans, as it is somewhat dependent on ocean heat storage and reflects the inter-annual climate variability connected with ENSO cycles. For instance, during El Nińo events the eastern Pacific Ocean sea level rises while the western Pacific falls, and vice versa during La Nińa events. Furthermore, there is an annual hemispheric seasonal variation in sea levels such that there is oceanic expansion during the spring and summer warming and oceanic contraction during the autumn and winter cooling. Just this seasonal and inter-annual variability results in sea level changes of up to ±400mm around the GMSL. This variability alone is sufficient to impact atolls (those island nations located on submerging seamounts – a fact once known by any Year 9 geography student), especially in combination with storm surges and spring tides.

The data to date indicates that there has been no measurable sea level rise due to anthropogenic warming (or at least no apparent signal) during the latter part of the 20th century; rather, the steady increase and very slight acceleration (continued)
Posted by Raredog, Thursday, 24 December 2009 9:58:44 AM
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(continued) is most likely due to oceanic thermal expansion as the Earth moves out of the Little Ice Age, a centuries-long period of global cooling centred around the 1700s.

Some climate models have suggested that a 0.6ºC to 1ºC rise in global average mean surface air temperature would result in oceanic thermal expansion equating to a sea level rise from about 40 to 80mm over the time of that temperature increase. In addition, a further 0.5mm per year (50mm per century) increase in sea levels could be expected from Antarctic and Greenland ice caps’ meltwater though this would be expected to decline as the marginally warmer temperature increases oceanic evaporation and resultant snowfalls adding more ice to the system. A further 0.5 to 1mm per year (50 to 100mm per century) is estimated to have been added to sea level rise over the past 150 years from melting glaciers, many of which reached their greatest extent during the Little Ice Age – this rate could also be expected to fall if glacially shrinkage continues. Recent satellite altimetry would indicate that even this slow rise is now decelerating.

Therefore, assumed sea level rises over the coming century are likely to be of a similar order, that is, around 180mm or approximately 7", assuming a similar rate of increase. Of course, if the Earth enters another cooling period, as it appears to be currently doing, due to reduced sunspot activity (apparent during 2008-09) and the Pacific Ocean decadal oscillation’s (PDO) reversion back to its cool phase, which occurred around the turn of the 21st century, then one can assume that the oceans will undergo thermal contraction and there will be a steadying or slight fall in global sea levels.

What gets up my nose is that not only is alarmism degrading the noble pursuit of factually-based science it is also an abuse of trust, and the improper use of public funding. Time for a royal commission methinks, and let any publicly-funded scientist who has deliberately obfuscated through omission beware – fraud is a serious crime.
Posted by Raredog, Thursday, 24 December 2009 9:59:18 AM
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According to the latest reports regarding sea level rise by the CSIRO (Dominique et al., 2008, Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multidecadal sea level rise; Nature vol 453, 19 June 2008, Figure 3) The breakdown of sources of sea level rise between 1961-2003 is as follows:

Thermal expansion in the upper 700 m: about 16 mm
Thermal expansion in the deep ocean: about 9 mm
Melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets: about 14 mm
Melting of glaciers and ice caps: about 20 mm
Overall sea level rise 1961 - 2004 of about 60 mm, which renders an average rate of about 1.4 mm/year.

However, as shown by Rahmstorf 2007 (Science, 19 JANUARY 2007 VOL 315 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org) the ratio steepened since about 1980, reaching about 3.5 mm/year by about 2000.

The overall sea level rise between 1880 - 2000 being about 200 mm (Rahmstorf, 2007, Figure 3).

Further updates presented in the 2009 Oxford "Beyond 4 degrees C" conference indicate further steep rise from about 2000 (Rahmstorf, 2009). Estimates of 21st century sea level rise given by Vellinga et al/Katsman et al (for the Netherlands Delta Committee (2008):

An estimate of contributions to global average sea level rise by 2100
in case of 4 degrees global average temprature rise:
• Global mean thermal expansion....0.1 to 0.5 m;
• Small glaciers...................0.1 to 0.2 m;
• Antarctic ice sheet..............0.0 to 0.4 m;
• Greenland ice sheet..............0.1 to 0.2 m;
Posted by Andy1, Thursday, 24 December 2009 11:57:07 AM
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