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The Forum > Article Comments > The road to recovery: restoring prosperity after the crisis > Comments

The road to recovery: restoring prosperity after the crisis : Comments

By Lindsay Tanner, published 1/12/2009

Unlike Hawke and Keating, the Rudd Government reforms are micro more than macro.

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Your belief that carbon dioxide is a pollutant is, as far as I am concerned, your Achilles heel. While the world chases the ETS hare, the real cause of global warming continues on its quiet, insinuous way.
The problem with the ALP is that, once Caucus has made a decision it cannot be changed.
Rogues and unethical scientists are now exposed in the UK, the USA and NZ and their hypothesis that humans are causing dramatic climate change is not questionned by a very rigid Caucus?
You ought to be Prime Minister.
Posted by phoenix94, Tuesday, 1 December 2009 9:48:43 AM
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There is no recovery. We are only at the start of this crisis, as the shockwaves in Dubai have just illustrated. In addition, any attempt at recovery will be thwarted by peak oil, with the price heading towards $200 /barrel again. We could be at the start of a 20 or 30 year depression, as the end of cheap energy will prevent any meaningful economic growth. We know that growth is essential to prevent sustained mass unemployment, so that the outlook is very bleak. The real need at present is for a substantial reduction in the standard of living of the average person, so that we can begin to repay the enormous foreign debt that we have built up, so that we can avoid having the debt called in by our overseas creditors. No reliance can be placed on China, as a collapse in their exports will inevitably lead in a collapse in their imports from us. Let us hope that we can find a political leader who can explain these issues without the usual spin. An immediate first step would be to stop immigration, so that the numbers of unemployed can be minimised.
Posted by plerdsus, Tuesday, 1 December 2009 10:33:35 AM
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Tanner is on the right track. The Keating/Hawke Governments made the big macro changes and, to have any sustainable impact for the ordinary person, the reforms have to extend to the micro. Most pain that ordinary people suffer comes about as a result of hitting blockages or from being squeezed between a couple of hard objects.

The idea of microeconomic reform is to streamline processes and make people's industry more efficient whilst giving them greater opportunity to contribute. If that's what these reforms deliver, that is exactly what the Government should be doing.

Peak oil and other shocks are going to be unavoidable. But the important question is: should we just let it hit us unprepared, or should we reform ourselves so that the shocks are as evenly spread as possible? It's a no-brainer.

Lindsay's approach here is spot on.
Posted by RobP, Tuesday, 1 December 2009 10:52:12 AM
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Lindsay Tanner, like a typical politicians, seems confused, or doesn't care, whether Australia's problems are caused by too much regulation or not enough - but would like to claim the credit either way.

It's easy when you don't have to engage in productive activity, and can live off the efforts of productive people, isn't it Lindsay? It is precisely this kind of unprincipled governmental meddling that has caused the economic crisis in the first place.

plerdsus
I agree that we ain't seen nothin' yet.

The idea that we are at the start of a recovery must depend on the idea that Obama's stimulus packages, of some trillions of dollars, have ended the bust. But this is pure Keynesianism, and quite apart from the many theoretical disproofs of this jumble of fallacies, if the Keynesians were right, then there wouldn't have been a bust in the first place.

But what if the bust is caused, as the Austrian school says, by expansion of the money supply, which causes a temporary artificial boom based on unsustainable malinvestment, followed by a bust? Then Obama's stimulus packages will have made matters worse. They will have diverted even more capital into malinvestments which must eventually fail after the latest inflation has worked its magic by defrauding the people en masse yet again.

There are only three possibilities:
1. continue inflating until hyper-inflation and the crack-up boom a la Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe - the way Obama is going
2. stop inflating now and face the depression caused by inflating the money supply and the unemployment caused by blocking wages from falling, and
3. abandon fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, which is the only thing that could and would cure the planned chaos caused by government's chronic debauching of the money supply.
Posted by Peter Hume, Tuesday, 1 December 2009 10:57:35 AM
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We haven't avoided the GFC.
As plerdsus and PH says, we haven't started yet.
Borrowing more to fix a debt problem is not going to work.
The US will try and do to China what they did to Japan last decade: default on the loans via currency depreciation. China won't let us do that; they will own us instead. (this process has begun)
PH has it about right: Fiat money will lead to more boom-bust. Politics is playing "pass the ticking parcel" at the moment, trying to blame the "opposition". Both sides are not admitting to the real issue: Outsourcing wealth creation and in-sourcing parasitic business such as Banks, Insurance, and dodgy "investment" houses such as Macquarie...who are nothing more than profit skimmers.
Importing wealthy Chinese to keep the property market (hence banks) upright will not last so long.
BTW. We didn't have a skills crisis, we had a management crisis. There were plenty of IT skills around but they were mostly tied up in Telstra style projects: Big consultants, hundreds of bums on seats and management for vendor profit rather than results. This is typical of the modern business culture: Profit before productivity, Profit before idealism, Profit before staff satisfaction, Profit before long-term viability. When senior management makes a lifetime's wages in a year or two...this is sort of "management" is inevitable.
It is said "Pay peanuts, get monkeys". It should also be known: "Pay Gold, get Greed". I'd rather a culture of dedicated, educated monkeys than the greedy pigs running the show now!
Posted by Ozandy, Tuesday, 1 December 2009 11:49:24 AM
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I agree that this article is mostly spin, finger pointing etc., part and parcel of a dysfunctional party system.

Notwithstanding the author's name is Lindsay Tanner not the arch angel Gabriel nor is Kevin Rudd god despite what ever private delusions they may harbour.

the problem is we do get the Governments we deserve. Apathy, Myopia, prejudice ridden, Self serving are all terms that we, the public must bare. Ultimately we put them there.

However, this doesn't excuse the parliamentary disease of focus as highlighted by the student in a current article. By that I mean parliamentarians see their job is to first be elected, second get the party into power and then ensure they stay there. One is entitled to criticise the government in that they choose the most politically expedient course rather than the best.

This is evidenced by this mill stone of an ETS, and their slavish adherence to a financial system that is at best, on life support and opioids.

As for the New internet system, I am yet to be convinced that it will happen. Much like the other (non core)promises of the election.

True, Howard's IR agenda was well off with the gnomes of the business big end. However, as long as we have capitalist system that doesn't have responsible moral constructs like reasonable and enough, in its lexicon, how can we expect the less well off to be prepared to sacrifice so disproportionally.

It's obvious (to me) extension to this is that IR will like the proverbially angry puppy, always be chasing its tail, with attitude.
Posted by examinator, Tuesday, 1 December 2009 3:04:32 PM
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