This article raises some important practical considerations regarding how to effectively warn people of impending natural disasters, preferably with time for them to protect themselves. However, like the great bulk of discussions about promoting disaster preparedness and effective responses it takes no account of the psychological factors that inhibit most people at risk from taking even minimal precautions with the inevitable result that, when a disaster does occur, its impact is greatly magnified. The traditional approaches to fostering preparation have been to provide education usually backed by threats of the terrible consequences that will follow a lack of preparation. The failure of this scare-based approach has been repeatedly demonstrated over decades of disasters, just as it has been shown to be largely ineffective when used to encourage people to be more healthy. The problem is that, when you try to change a person's behaviour in pro-safety (or pro-health) directions by scaring them with the consequences of not changing, they have two choices. They could change their behaviour as suggested, as authorities hope they will, but what humans are naturally more inclined to do is to discount the risk, "Bad things do happen, but to someone else." To take precautions is to admit I'm at risk, that makes me anxious, so the easy way to ease my anxiety is to take no precautions. Attempts to encourage widespread, effective behavioural change to promote increased safety from potential disasters will not really work unless the education is accompanied by practical advice on how to manage the anxiety prompted by taking the precautions. Steps for doing this, and for managing the heightened anxiety arising on days of high risk, are set out in a brochure freely available for download from the website of the Australian Psychological Society at www.psychology.org.au, by clicking on the Bushfires link under Psychology Topics. We hope many people will access it, share it with their neighbours, and emergency services will incorporate it into their public education activities.
Prof Bob Montgomery, President, Australian Psychological Society.

I grew up in the country. I learned to light fires, just as prior to white settlement, the Aboriginal community regularly burned the grassland. I am now too old to be lighting fires or fighting fires. As of yesterday I made a donation to my local Rural Fire Brigade (money they will use for fuel) to come in and burn off the dry grass land prior to the hot weather arriving.
It is my belief that too many urban dwellers are now living on the edge of rural areas, who have no understanding that fire can be a good friend or a dangerous enemy.
My home now has an established firebreak around it.
We must accept responsibility for our own home and protect it from fire.

The facts in Aus are that the southern half of Aus can be subject to big fires. Even in the north there are fire at times. However the further south one goes, generally, one can expect hot dry summers with some extreme days each year.

Like the author, I am loath to be critical of those that lost so much last summer in Vic, but the fact remains that many were neglegent in allowing fuel so close to their homes. Nearly every year there is a disastorous fire somewhere and, as Country Gal says, one has to take steps to reduce the hazards in our enviroment.

Would one build a home in NQ without making it cyclone proof?

In recent times we have had Ash Wednesday and the Canberra fires, so how much warning do people require?

I see some further problems with a fire warning system. A rush to go causing conjestion on roads and possible disaster caused by a vehicle accident or fallen tree, trapping many in cars.

I also see a vast increase in burnt homes simply because they are vacant. This will lead to increased insurance costs generally

I live in a high fire risk area and we have elected to stay and fight. However we have done about all we can to reduce the risk and increase our chance of saving the home.

Gravity fed water system with sprinklers on house and verandah. Green surounds with only a few trees and sprinklers on yard fence. Our pony, kept in designated area west of yard by electric tape, ensures low fuel levels. Our own small truck with tank and pump. These are the main aspects of plan.

A home can be made a refuge with a little thought and work. Appreciate and understand the enviroment in which we live.

You do not need any more bushfire warnings. What you need is to open your eyes. It's your responsability to make your property as fire proof as possable. All the fire warnings won't fix that.

We already have the tech for mapping and prediction it's owned by the Dept; of Defense why are they not used.

The RAAF should be able to provide maps showing hot spots , Temperature and direction of fires by producing new maps at 30 min intervals ; THIS WOULD ESTABLISH WIND DIRECTION AND FIRE SPEED AND ANY WIND SHIFTS .

Only problems might be Fire Personnel reading Military Grid Maps ; this can be remedied with an Education Program .

Convincing people to move would be simplified if they can see it all happening 'Birds Eye View'in their own lounge room .

It is all about backburning and decentralisation of popualtions along with more railways throughout the State of Victoria and in other states also. Expanded rail networks act as antural fire breaks.
Appeals to architects and underground shelters throughout towns is part of the denial that is going on. The Royal Commission basically had it answers provided due to the terms of reference. Most of the submissions spoke of back burning yet were glossed over as part of the political establishment's subservience to the Greens and associated pantheistic philosophy grousp that pose as secular and arional outfits.
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Roger Underwood is right on the money but others commenting have also pointed out the sheer indifference of people to doing the obvious and protecting themselves as far as they can.

I too have no wish to offend anyone in Victoria and respect the fact that the restoration is still going on. However, some of my own experiences as a bush firefighter leave me cold seeing the indifference and the attitude that someone else will be there to fix things.

Imagine this. Long steep dirt road, hills east of Perth, houses to the left, forest on the right, fire at bottom of hill, wind pushing the fire up the hill toward the houses, they might be at risk.

Given the order to back burn to protect the houses. People complained about the smoke whilst they were sitting in their gardens clearly oblivious and uncaring. It was their attitude that annoyed me the most. "The fire brigade will take care of it".

I learned a lot about fire behaviour when I was training and the sinister aspect of crown fires creating their own fire storms was covered of course. Seems that many people living in the Hills east of Perth have very limited or no knowledge of bush fire behaviour. Some elementary education would go a long way.

Roger Underwood makes some very valid points. And so does Bob Montgomery. I'd like to add another observation about these conditions.
On Black Saturday most people were shut up with fans / air conditioners and (probabnly the TV) on - I was on the computer. Ignorance of what was happening outside from minute to minute was probably (and reportedly) very high.
Many of the actual events / breakouts could only have been usefully detected by local patrols of good vantage points - the sky was so full of smoke that the usual fire spotting towers would have had limited visibility beyond the smoke edge closest to them.
Perhaps infra-red sensing that can penetrate to the ground through very high temperature smoke from high-flying aircraft can be made effective.
Alternatively, deploying local patrols with good (local) communications and alerting capabilities is, I think the ONLY other way of improving things reliably - But this will take a lot of careful planning and organising - a great many issues would need to be dealt with - safety especially.
Such volatile disasters can erupt pretty well anywhere - making forward evacuation of large numbers of people highly fraught - from where and to where will be impossible to guess in advance - and Roger mentioned the perils of congested roads once real action is under way.
It seems to me that days like Black Saturday are predictable, but the actual outcomes are not - requiring a new approach to local cooperation and survival that can operate independent of remote, centralised intelligence systems which can be rendered blind by the very conditions they are attempting to assess and communicate.
I hope this thread attracts a few more experienced players to comment.

I doubt the safety of a mobile phone based messaging system, because it relies on phone towers not being burnt down, assumes good mobile phone coverage - mountainous areas in north east Victoria have no coverage, and doesn't work if the phone battery is depleted or phone turned off. Telstra experimented with phone messaging in January and I received the South Australia extreme heat messgae but not a Victoria message, I was in Victoria on both days.

Its difficult for people who weren't in the bushfire area to understand the ferocity of the fires and the speed at which they moved.

After successfully defending property in 2006 bushfires and preparing the property by removing all gum trees, keeping the garden green - a luxury not afforded to Victorians on stage 3 water restrictions, we decided to pay our insurance and evacuate next high fire danger day because this fire was so ferocious that all sensible fire precautions were ineffective. The house that was built on a cleared block to withstand 1982 level fires would have burned in 2009 if it had been in the fire path. People who house was at the top of a slight gully died without knowing what hit them.

If you were in the fire path and the topography was against you your property burned regardless of vegetation