True it is that this article is about Newspoll, but Graham Young, in the OLO blog Ambit Gambit of 23 March 2009, observed:

"Every pollster, including us, was saying that Labor was in trouble in the Queensland election. The predicted swing was in the realm of 7 percent. From what you can tell, internal ALP research also seems to have supported this."

Are we to take it then that ALL pollsters are using, consciously or unconsciously, the skewing techniques imputed to Newspoll? That seems a little rich.

The nasty little sleeper in the article, in my view, is this:

"We live in a world where numbers are manipulated (by Enron, by Lehman Brothers, by Bernard Madoff, by Robert Mugabe) so commonly, so routinely, that economic meltdowns result from their manipulation."

I get the impression that the damage to most pollsters' credibility arising from the getting of most of the forecasts wrong is not viewed by Bob Ellis as enough 'punishment'. They have to be collectively smeared by a manufactured association with the notorieties mentioned. Do I run on too far in suggesting that the next item on the agenda may be the touting of the banning of opinion polls because electoral meltdowns are seen as arising from their manipulation?

Alternatively, one could rework the nasty little sleeper like this:

'We live in a little world where elections are manipulated so commonly, so routinely, that almost all the opinion pollsters are getting it wrong almost all of the time.'

A standing contradiction like that would have to be somehow dealt with, lest at some point credulity amongst the public at large became just too strained. Nothing like raising the acknowledged boogeyman of Newspoll and its apparent lack of transparency to get the ball rolling. If it was recognised as a standing contradiction, that is.

As a matter of interest, is the apparent voter turn-out for the Queensland State elections able to be determined from any publicly accessible official report of the real poll figures, the aggregate number of vote claims made? I haven't found this on the ECQ site.

If you manipulate the information then rational people cannot make good decisions. This is a tactic of modern life and, alas, governments are increasingly using it.
I am more concerned about the manipulation of core economic statistics such as GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and company profits. These have all been modified in recent years to make thing s seem rosier than they are for certain economic classes. The last 10 years really haven't been as good as the prior government pretended they were.
So while real unemployment goes up, the "official" figure is at "record lows". Likewise with inflation: How can the cost of living go up so sharply without this being reflected in inflation? The "basket of goods" excludes petrol, rent and some foods. Where is the reason behind this? Minimum wages are linked to inflation, so by understating real cost of living rises the government can keep interest rates low and profits for mates high.
Like accountants manipulating figures to remove accountability, (as is the modern practice), governments are also fudging figures to justify their actions.
Can we accept these official lies from our leaders?

Bob Ellis,

If you were better looking I'd marry you.

I now know why bad news stories about education standards in state schools always come out when there's a budget to be cut or funds to be transferred to the privates.

Bob' this peice got hammered on Unleashed and rightly so. It is biased and leaves too many holes in your logic. As a rave against polls it's entertaining but that's all.

Oh come on examinator, you're only jealous. Don't be mean. Bob Ellis for President!

Who else writes such erotic prose?