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The Forum > Article Comments > The China house of cards - a 2009 scenario > Comments

The China house of cards - a 2009 scenario : Comments

By Arthur Thomas, published 12/1/2009

What is in store for China in 2009 and what will be the global implications?

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Gibo,

Not to worry old mate, I am niether a China lover nor hater. Just calling for a little more balance in commentary. Don't want to frighten the horses.
Posted by Romany, Tuesday, 13 January 2009 11:28:30 AM
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Very interesting article.
There have been a couple of BBC documentaries on current conditions
in China. In one the BBC reporter stated that in the province
thousands of small factories had closed.
The numbers boggle the mind.
It showed workers outside the factories demanding their pay.
Inside the management had disappeared and so had all the machinery
of the factory.
The recent documentary showed the problem of the factory workers
returning to the farms. It increases the poverty dramatically.
Not only is there another mouth to be fed, but no money is coming
from the city.

To me the article rings true, but it does not take into account,
if you will pardon me getting on my hobby horse, the increasing
difficulty China will have with energy. Already they are having
problems with electricity generation and diesel supply.
This will increase the difficulty of dealing with their problems.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 13 January 2009 3:05:19 PM
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If China is smart,it will develop it's own domestic economy.Only 400 million Chinese are involved in this present economic growth.They have another 900 million wanting prosperity.Do they really need the USA or Europe?So long as China has not fallen into the debt trap like the Western World,China has an enormous market at home.

China should also stay clear of the IMF and the World Bank.Their Reserve Bank should stay in the control of the Govt.You don't need worthless fiat paper money when the real wealth is in your people.
Posted by Arjay, Tuesday, 13 January 2009 7:24:22 PM
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The way Gibo argues his case is uncanningly similar to the article author's way of emotivism and spurious correlation... how a national military match can somehow, according to Gibo, lead to conclusions of a completely different thing. It is no way of convincing anyone..

and Gibo and co thinks that a secret arm's buildup/improvement is underway secretly, as if it is not something all nations do in the face of threats... is Gibo concerned about an upset of the current world status quo? or is being biased for the sack of it the name of the game?

He further mentioned the Opium war in his first post... Not to mention how many centries ago that occured and how many other significant intervening events occured since then, there is really little concept displayed towards development of a nation to being a good thing. China's strength is in everyone's interest. This article talks about the economy, im saying without Chinese buying loads of commodities and other goods the recession may just have already arrived. And sure Gibo disagrees with usual biasedness, which he is perfectly entitled to. and no one is ever going to be right or wrong about it. But I really would like to here stronger arguments that aim to hold back others' progress and strive to succeed... please enlighten..
Posted by Goku, Tuesday, 13 January 2009 9:41:19 PM
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I have been writing a BLOG in China for over a year and would confirm that the writer has been very accurate in describing the current situation in China. I think those who don't believe in it should learn Chinese and read over a thounsand articles in the blogs in China, just like me, to appreciate the current difficult situation in China.
Posted by scfchan, Tuesday, 13 January 2009 10:02:48 PM
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The real worry is the instability in the US.This only emboldens the likes of China and Russia.If the US becomes pre-occupied with domestic problems,would they bother coming to our aid?

An invader would only need to take our major airports with a sneek attack.Once the troops have landed,it would be too late.What would be the point of threatening China with nuclear war? 20 million people would not be worth it,and the US people would not have the stomach for this after being conned by the Bush admisistration.

I think we need to get our own nuclear weapons now.The world is becoming too unstable.An invasion by China will see most of our pop executed.Why?We would not be as submissive as Nepal and the language differences too great.Too much division and confusion.At Tiernamen Square one million possibly killed of their own educated people,was thought to be a small number.They have the power to re-write history.We never existed,nor did their attrocities.Hitler came very close to his objective.

This is not the time to have an equivocating,bureaucratic whimp for a Prime Misister.China needs energy and resources.With our small pop and large land mass,we are an easy and obivious target.
Posted by Arjay, Tuesday, 13 January 2009 11:11:05 PM
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