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The Forum > Article Comments > Peak oil and retirement > Comments

Peak oil and retirement : Comments

By Michael Lardelli, published 6/10/2008

When planning for retirement in a post-peak oil world a new attitude is needed.

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Thank you Michael for your thoughts and perspective on the recently recognised yet long existing crisis. Insofar as information and data preservation is concerned I mightn't be so concerned if it weren't for the political inactivity on infrastructure redevelopment. The advent of wetware or biological computers (which as of now can only perform basic arithmetic) is promising as an alternative form of microprocessor manufacture, a sort of computer or hard drive farming if you will, however a mass changeover of infrastructure would bring about just as much chaos as a complete collapse of conventional energy supply. A gradual phasing in of new technology and or retrofitting of existing systems would serve us better.

As for your mention of our faith based money system, it is undoubtedly clear that our economic system is fundamentally flawed; suggesting that currency without a standard represents the finite nature of resources (human or otherwise) available to our species. While what seems a noble implementation of the first law of thermodynamics is actually completely ignoring the human discovery of new resources, both new deposits of conventional sources or the advent of entirely new technological breakthroughs. Such a mode of operation facilitates gain, only at another's (usually nation's) expense. A finite source distributed amongst an ever increasing populace, carrying an ever decreasing real value is doomed to dilute wealth or the ability to influence change.

As a third year genetics student under your tutorship and with an understanding of science, politics and philosophy I'm rather scared and resigned to a fate I've had little to no hand in creating. If you've a spare toaster and refrigerator to leave me please do so; maybe I can salvage the parts to concoct a device to provide me with some breathable air, lord knows there might not be a hell of a lot of that in times to come!

By the by, don’t be hard on yourself. Being a research and educator you’re working actively on both fronts to arm the future generations with the tools to pull this species out of the sorry mess we find ourselves in.
Posted by Detuned Radio, Monday, 6 October 2008 3:24:41 PM
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Bit of a suckup there DR. Let's hope your book learning will be of a kind that gets you out of growing spuds like the rest of us. As for comments that renewable energy can save us I'm not so sure. I think there will be an intractable core of economic activity for which no affordable amount of wind and solar will fill the gap when fossil fuels are gone. I guess we'll find out the hard way how big that gap is.
Posted by Taswegian, Monday, 6 October 2008 5:24:57 PM
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Utter Crap

Today oil is at US$94.00 a barrel. A month ago it was U$150.00 a barrel.
Today petrol was AUD$1.45 a litre. A month ago it was AU$1.54 a litre

So a month ago it was peak oil? Or peak petrol price?

What has happened in the interim.

Only one thing and it wasn't peak oil! The stock market and futures spectulation imploded. It was peak speculation.

And of course Kevin and Wayne are still watching but nobody is doing the math.

Oh and even after addng in a fall in the value of the AUD$ from .97c to .74c

Then work out what we should be paying for petol.

I reckon about, well let's see fall in dollar about 25%
Fall in Oil per barrel 35% petrol prices should translate to about $1.25 a litre.

Oih Kevvey where the f..k are you? In fact where are the media rabble?
Posted by keith, Monday, 6 October 2008 9:05:39 PM
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As I approach retirement I fell increasingly optimistic about our ability to negotiate difficult challenges. However we are culturally primed to believe in the end of all things. I remember arguing with my parents that there was a parallel between the time of Christ and the 1970’s – in both periods it was widely believed that we would see the end of the world in our lifetimes. The flaw in my argument was that it didn’t happen in the time of Christ, nor did it happen at all the other times the end was prophesised. The success rate in achieving the end of the world wasn’t all that good.

The despair about peak oil underlines to me the importance of liquid transport fuels. With that in mind, the research being done and the technologies that already exist are grounds for optimism. Coal to liquid is old and proven technology as shown by Sasol’s profitability. Gas to liquid is another one. If you don’t like the fossil fuels, there’s the biomass to liquid technology backed by Royal Dutch Shell and a cluster of progressive car and truck manufacturers.

These projects are large and expensive and with some forecasts of oil prices falling, there may be some reluctance to invest very heavily at present. OPEC might use their market position to crush people who start too big and too early – it’s the best way to kill off the competition. In the case of biomass to liquid, it is very close technically (plans for the first commercial plant are underway by Choren in Germany) and should easily compete with oil at over $100 a barrel. I think when oil is stable at over about $100 there could be some interesting and quite encouraging developments emerge from the shadows.

But none of this satisfies the ongoing search for the end of all things. So cheer up Michael, it might never happen, because there’s a lot riding on us finding solutions. Perhaps optimism is a form of confidence, not a state of stupidity
Posted by Rick, Monday, 6 October 2008 11:43:40 PM
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We can have cheap renewable energy generation, we can finance it, and we can replace fossil fuel energy within 10 to 20 years.

We can finance renewables by the Reserve Bank creating zero interest loans to be used just for renewable infrastructure. That is the money has to be spent on renewable energy generation (or energy savings). Zero interest loans makes renewables immediately economic. It will not be inflationary because the money will be spent creating a productive asset that will return more money than is expended. We do not need emissions trading to make renewables a good investment opportunity. We can make them investment attractive with zero interest loans.

We have several orders of magnitude greater than our current energy needs of renewable geothermal (hot rock) and solar thermal resources available for exploitation

The current cost of geothermal (and solar thermal) is about $5000 per continuous kw produced and will drop to at least half the cost of fossil burning plants by the time we have built the needed capacity. (Each time build more of a particular technology then the cost drops due to the learning curve and for this sort of technology it is about 15 to 20% per doubling of capacity)

We can replace all electricity generation capacity within ten years with electricity generated at half or less of the running costs of fossil fuel burning plants. This is a major engineering task but it is relatively simple technology and we can enlist the help of China India Japan Europeans the Arabs and the USA in exploiting these resources. Geothermal requires drilling holes in the ground. Solar thermal needs mirrors and pipes.
Posted by Fickle Pickle, Tuesday, 7 October 2008 5:01:26 AM
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Senior Victorian,
Oil will not run out but it is not just a matter of cost.
It is the energy used to produce the oil.
The ERoEI is what will limit the available energy.

Electrical energy is the only real path to the future.
Oil should be reserved for plastics and fertiliser.
That we will suffer an energy decent seems almost inevitable.
The infrastructure investment to switch everything to electrical based
energy use will be massive and may not be achievable.

So investment in energy orientated companies seems common sense.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 7 October 2008 7:45:15 AM
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