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The Forum > Article Comments > Afghanistan: is there a plan? > Comments

Afghanistan: is there a plan? : Comments

By Bruce Haigh, published 2/10/2008

The new President of Pakistan will do little to address concerns at the flow of insurgents and weapons from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

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Very well said Bruce. The sooner the US alliance realises that they have no place in Afghanistan, the better. The Russians discovered what the Poms had found out a century before, but the dumb Yanks are still trying to re-invent the wheel. Our government is even dumber, falling for the line of BS dished out to them by George Bush and his minders. Unfortunately, McCain and Obama don't seem to have learned the lesson either.

David
Posted by VK3AUU, Thursday, 2 October 2008 12:20:05 PM
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Yet another good article Bruce.

The situation in Afghanistan is so much worse than Vietnam because:

- Opium corrupts most Afghani politicians and maintain a drug lord - warlord culture over the whole country. Even many pro-Coalition leaders and fighters are well known drug lords.

- Religion - strong Islamic feelings mean that no natural bonds of friendship have grown with the "infidels". A measure of this is that while a significant number of Australian troops in Vietnam eventually married Catholic Vietnamese brides no such marriage of locals has happened in Afghanistan as far as I know (if anybody can point to any positive stats that would be interesting).

- Pakistan's nuclear weapons have no parallel in the Vietnam War. Unlike Pak based insurgents there was no chance that the Vietnamese Communist insurgents could retaliate with nuclear devices including dirty bombs.

About the Pakistani Prez Asif Ali Zardari the Chicago Tribune, Sept 13, 2008 has a great comment about him:

"Derided as a crook and a liar, a weasel and a wastrel, Zardari, the widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, takes office even though most Pakistanis are deeply skeptical about him.

For much of his political life, Zardari was known as Bhutto's feckless, freeloading consort, often accused of extracting kickbacks from anyone wishing to do business with his wife's government—hence, "Mr. 10 Percent.""

It won't improve (for the West anyway) in Afghanistan unless the US can install a vicious Shah of Iran type - not likely - and not good for people.

Pete
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.co
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 2 October 2008 12:27:34 PM
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Pushing the envelope by addressing 3 comments tonight.
I have to say that Afghanistan has always accepted men of integrity.
Most Afghanis speak of Iskandar as if he was a Great Uncle.
I speak of Alexander the Great.

What is it about Afghanistan that we have to interfere anyway?
Is it because since Iskandar they abided no overlord for very long?
Is it because they produced good Hashish?
Is it because they fought off the might of the Soviet Union?

Or is it because they are all an incredibly proud people who want no more than to go their own way towards solving their own problems in their own time?

It really is such a bloody shame that if outside intervention is a no-choice situation for Afghanis - that our Australian and New Zealand troops do not have the resources to take the task on 100 percent.

Because if they could - they might supplant Alexander's legend, and by dint of similar values shared with such proud people, bring some respite and decency to a much oppressed land.
Posted by A NON FARMER, Thursday, 2 October 2008 7:51:16 PM
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Comments x 2
David has an historical point that cannot be denied. Flat out cannot be denied.

Plantagenet - Is it the drugs or the nukes that worry you?
Both are a fact of life - essentially condoned by the good ol' boys.
With regard to Afghani women marrying Aussies - they well might if the men come up to their standards.
I have no doubt that our people are fine people.
I would submit however they have no chance of cutting the mustard when placed in comparison with the average Afghani bloke.
Why would Afghani women have the slightest interest with the sort of doughballs we turn out these days?

To start with the average Afghani bloke is as wiry as all get out. Then he is inclined to have a great sense of family, then clan, then cares immensely about his heritage and land.. Besides which if he survives past his youth he tends to live to a ripe old age.
They are immensely valuable people.
Might there be some way we might cease interfering with their lives?
Posted by A NON FARMER, Friday, 3 October 2008 10:31:56 PM
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> Is it because since Iskandar they abided no overlord for very long?

Actually Alexander's rule was quite short. After his death, his satrap Selucius Nicator lost what is present day Afghanistan to the Indian emperor Chandragupta Maurya. His grandson Ashoka's edicts (laws) are still to be found in Kandahar. Later kings such as Kanishka ruled huge empires that included present day Afghanistan.

During Buddhist times, the region was at peace, ruled by law. For hundreds of years.

The Pashtun areas of modern day Pakistan were later ruled by the Sikh king Ranjit Singh. He crushed a jihad launched against his rule. He enforced his laws. Those areas ended up inside British India because the British defeated the Sikh kingdom.

So the Pashtuns (and other Afghans) have a history of being ruled for long periods and obeying the law.

It is a useful myth to assert that the region is ungovernable, that no military, no ruler is able to impose their will. Useful for those that prefer a region in chaos, a buffer zone that protects their more secure centers of power. Quite useful for present day Pakistan to have borders that are porous, amorphous, ever expanding.
Posted by john frum, Saturday, 4 October 2008 12:12:20 PM
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Non Farmer

The Aussies sleep in fortresses to protect them from Afghans.

You ask whether it is the drugs or nukes that worry me? You're kidding right? Drugs and nukes worry the US and NATO, Australia and NZ intensely.

I think you are wilfully missing the point about the lack of digger-Afghan female intermarriage. This isn't due to relative quality of menfolk.

It is RELIGION that divides people sharply in that fervently Islamic country. Afghan woman are not allowed out. If a woman escapes and by some miracle is seen walking hand in hand with a Digger an Afghan woman would probably be killed outright on the street or later that night at her home.

This is not forgetting that Afghanistan is so hostile that a digger wouldn't be walking alone on the street in (say) Kandahar anyway.

Staged and filmed handshakes of friendship between Aussies and Afghan men barely veil uncertainty and often antipathy.

It is as if the Australians are part of a (short-term) occupying army. Begs the question doesn't it.

--

John Frum

As usual your knowledge and sound arguments embarrass the more ignorant or flippant commenters on OLO.

I'm pessimistic though that infidels (like us) could never rule Afghanistan for long. Afghanis may accept Muslim rule though - and I suggest Pakistan would be the most logical country to rule the Afghanis - maybe dirctly or maybe through an ISI assisted puppet. Maybe Saudi money would be needed to fund the setup as in the 1980s and 90s.

Unfortunately such a recipe may equal Taliban-like rule with equal opportunities for al Qaeda to setup its terrorist academies again.

So I'm pessimistic. I think the rising numbers of Diggers killed in Afganistan will persuade the Australian public that servicing the American alliance in Afghanistan is no longer worth it - 4 years max.

Pete
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com/
Posted by plantagenet, Saturday, 4 October 2008 1:26:07 PM
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Thanks for the information people.
My favourite Afghan story is about the Brits converting from biplanes to Hawker Hurricanes (policy, RAF, 'punish' the border tribes from the air).

The Westland Wapitis, etc., had an air gunner in a rearward facing gunmount with empty cartridge cases being ejected into a collection bag. These sturdy aircraft could circle on a wingtip a safe distance above 'those being punished' and deliver fire until out of ammunition. (And of course took all their empty cases home.)
A fair number of aircrew used these flight characteristics to ensure they were engaging legit targets, not shooting up women and kids.

Then along came war weary Hawker Hurricanes, eight 303 machine guns in the wings and a whopping great radiator under the wing for its liquid cooled engine.
Being able to engage point ground targets only by diving at a relatively low speed, the Hurricanes usually managed to receive more groundfire damage than the air cooled engined biplanes ever did.

What really made the tribesmen happy though was the eight streams of ejected cartridge brass left after each strafing.
303 British was the favourite chambering back then and many Afghanis being into reloading/remanufacturing ammo (as any target shooter would know is 'a satisfying and rewarding hobby').
The lesson is that a quantum technology leap does not necessarily result in increased capability or effectiveness, especially when force delivery results in providing the opposition themselves an capability asset.

So people, what I meant about Alexander's curtailed sojourn in the region wasn't so much about that worthy - rather that Afghanis appear to have extremely good memories and an incredible ability to leverage advantage from their circumstance.
Admirable attributes we should note carefully; since if the 'Great Game', that has caused those people so much grief for so long, continues - it could cause a destiny for the US similar to that of the USSR.

If that happens and we want to survive it might pay us to teach the next generation of Aussie kids frugality and to be good at finding cartridge brass amongst the weeds.
Posted by A NON FARMER, Saturday, 4 October 2008 2:58:26 PM
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Only blind people could not see the GREAT plan for Afghanistan:
1. We will lose the war in Afghanistan
2. We will convert the Pakistan to a new Afghanistan and we will invade to Pakistan.
There are so many patriots and so good taxpayers who could give their life for the oil and military companies!
Posted by ASymeonakis, Saturday, 4 October 2008 8:35:17 PM
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> embarrass the more ignorant or flippant commenters on OLO.

OLO just reflects what is written in the mainstream media and spoken by politicians and even military officers on TV.

The ignorance is far too common. From Alexander to Lord Curzon in one sentence. As if almost 2000 years of history did not occur. No mention about the Mauryans, the Kushans, the Guptas, the Shahis, the Moghals, the Marathas, the Sikhs.

None of this. After Alexander, nothing. Perhaps they should read Plutarch to find out who ruled Afghanistan after Alexander's satrap Selucius Nicator:

"But this last combat with Porus took off the edge of the Macedonians' courage, and stayed their further progress into India. For having found it hard enough to defeat an enemy who brought but twenty thousand foot and two thousand horse into the field, they thought they had reason to oppose Alexander's design of leading them on to pass the Ganges, too, which they were told was thirty-two furlongs broad and a fathoms deep, and the banks on the further side covered with multitudes of enemies. For they were told the kings of the Gandaritans and Praesians expected them there with eighty thousand horse, two hundred thousand foot, eight thousand armed chariots, and six thousand fighting elephants. Nor was this a mere vain report, spread to discourage them. For Androcottus, who not long after reigned in those parts, made a present of five hundred elephants at once to Seleucus, and with an army of six hundred thousand men subdued all India. "
Posted by john frum, Sunday, 5 October 2008 4:26:19 AM
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Britain should not expect a "decisive military victory" in Afghanistan
"The UK's commander in Helmand has said Britain should not expect a "decisive military victory" in Afghanistan"
He said: "If the Taleban were prepared to sit on the other side of the table and talk about a political settlement, then that's precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this.
"That shouldn't make people uncomfortable."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7653116.stm

I know, I know... ask the Russians or the British to tell their experiences from former wars!

Antonios Symeonakis
Adelaide
Posted by ASymeonakis, Sunday, 5 October 2008 5:17:50 PM
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Some interesting comments. I would like to attempt to broaden the "view" a little, by adding something of my experiences from spending some time amongst people who profess to be followers of the book in the hope that those more knowledgeable about the specifics of the situation in Afghanistan may enrich our knowledge still further.

Ashadu anlla ilaha ill ALLOH
Wa as hadu anna muhamadar rosulullosh

An opening prayer, common to Muslims all over the world
AND
I would suggest to look at this issue as one not pertaining to Muslims everywhere would be to "miss the point," so to speak.

The people here in Jawa speak a mix of the national & a lokal dialect and also are taught Arabic from pre-school.

I have not spoken to a one who does not consider themselves part of the greater family of Islam. What is done to any one member, is considered by the collective.

Islam here is generally a calmative, a pacifier for the poor, 40+ million of which leave on less than $5 per day. Of course, wages are centrally controlled as are all the costs of the basics of life, from rice to you name it. When they fall below the poverty line, it is to the mosque that they go. A Cleric may be dispatched to a land owner, for example, and will issue directives for Billy Blogs to be provided with a coconut, that he may make a curry etc.

And herein lies part of the core of the loyalty of the "common" folk
Posted by DreamOn, Sunday, 5 October 2008 7:06:36 PM
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2 times recently the police where called over corruption allegations and the head of the village, 2 times they refused to act. The 3rd time, following an edict from the cleric, the police took the head of the village away and locked him up. He is currently been prosecuted and his assets liquidated. Have no illusions about it, the village head would have been strung up had he not been taken away. So, there appears to be an interesting nexus in the locus of control within Indonesia between the civilian authority and the religious authority. In more than 2 yrs, it is the only time I have personally witnessed the religious authority exercise their authority and countermand the local police and government officials.

Now to warp to a current issue with a view from the past .. the dutch are alleged to have committed great attrocities here and for right or for wrong, better or worse, they still teach this. Part of the mechanism of oppression as the antique people call it, was and still is to a certain extent, racial profiling and discriminatory laws. They say, we Australians also have one rule for those within Australia and another rule for others who are not.

I would suggest that if as a collective here you do not want the death penalty, then do not ask for it to be imposed upon others. Whilst there were approx 15,000 troops guarding the coast during the gw conference, nothing like that exists for the benefit of the substantial ex pat community.

They are a collective and everyone knows everybodies businness. They assume generally, that we are the same and of course we are not any more. If our military makes war on one part of their family, they assume it is with the full knowledge and consent of the australian collective, which of course is also not true.
Posted by DreamOn, Sunday, 5 October 2008 7:20:12 PM
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Jason Burke writing in The Guardian Weekly, 3.10.08, says," The Taliban have been engaged in secret talks about ending the conflict in Afghanistan in a 'peace process' sponsored by Saudia Arabia... Britain has provided logistic and diplomatic support for the talks...The West's backing for these talks is a measure of how badly things have gone wrong in Afghanistan, and how far Western governments are prepared to go to stabilise a deteriorating situation, which is costing more in men, money and political than they ever imagined. The situation in Pakistan...has given the initiative a new urgency."
No mention of Australian involvement in this initiative. The ABC, World Today, 6.10.08, had a story that the departing British Ambassador from Kabul called for a negotiated settlement, this view was said to backed by a number of NATO members engaged in Afghanistan.
The US is said to oppose this view and Fitzgibbon was unavailable for comment, but was quoted in the AFR(6.10.08) as wondering whether the financial melt down might not preclude the US from sending significant numbers of new troops to Afghanistan.
What should be made of the ADF allowing ABC reporter, Mark Willesee, to be inserted into Australian forces in Afghanistan? The reports have so far supported a continued Australian military involvement. Could there be a split within Defence on this issue? Might that split be between the Ministers office and that of the Secretary of Defence, Nick Warner - a member of the old guard and a Howard appointee?
Bruce Haig
Posted by Bruce Haigh, Monday, 6 October 2008 11:34:31 AM
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Hi Bruce

I think Australia Afghan policy is fairly ad hoc, reactive and fragmented. Basic line - support the US but attempt to minimise Australian deaths.

The negotiations look like a temporary, hopeful and convenient fix.

If the Taliban are now telling the world
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/06/afghan.saudi.talks/index.html that it is now separate from AQ this defies geography and the reality that many of the internationally inclined Taliban are AQ by orientation.

As many in Saudi Arabia are also sympathetic politically and religiously to AQ, the Saudi role may simply be at the behest of the US and NATO.

It all sounds like a convenient fix to allow the West to withdraw from Afghanistan (a la "Peace With Honor"). Then the Taliban and AQ with ISI assistance can continue on their merry extremist way.

Families of troops killed in Afghanistan will wonder why anyone bothered occupying the country since 2001.

All a hard act of political reconciliation to sell.

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 7 October 2008 5:03:17 PM
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Completely agree with some of the assessments in here.

We are wasting billions on something that will not work. Lets put it this way: would you like 200,000 Indonesian soldiers invading Australia because they think our government is cruel?

The contect for the Afghanistan invasion was to aprehend terrorists, namely Osama Bin Laden. Now it has shifted to installing a pro-US government. This will never work, the Afghan people are proud and why would they want a western government telling them how to live?

The Taliban have more support than you realise. I suspect there is growing concern in Pakistan and Iran of what the true US intentions are. If Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts were to be peacefully solved this would send a message to other governments in the area who's next? I have a suspicion they are receiving funds from Pakistan, Syria, Iran and even possibly Russia.

The only way to honorably solve this is to get the hell out of the country because lets face it, the reason for being there in the first place is a lie.

I'm still confused as to the exact purpose of us being there in the first place. If its to get rid of a cruel government, why hasnt other countries like N Korea, Zimbabwe and Iran been invaded. Why does the West get away with deciding what government is cruel or not? Could it be due to political pressure and a nuclear confrontation?

This military intervention has meant the US and it's allies have bitten of more than they can chew and its now the tax payers who will suffer in the decades to come. My advice is to get active and educate the wider public into the illegality of this supposed "war".
Posted by Randomsurfer, Thursday, 16 October 2008 10:48:37 AM
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