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Georgia v South Ossetia: from conflict to war : Comments
By Ivan Simic, published 19/8/2008The genesis of the current situation was precipitated by the 1918-1920 Georgian-Ossetian conflict.
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1.For some time there has been an undeclared war being waged over access to the oil and gas reserves of Central Asia. Russia(Gazprom)has been largely successful in tying up deals with the various republics.
There are rival schemes for pipelines sponsered by Russia and the US eg South Stream and Nabucco.One pipeline designed to avoid Russian territory has been established through Georgia (Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan)
2.Post Cold War, rather than dismantling NATO, in a spirit of triumphalism ,the US has pushed NATO further and further into Eastern Europe.With Georgia going to extreme lengths to secure membership, Russia feels encircled.
3. At the same time , the US has abandoned the Cold War nuclear arms agreements(MAD-mutually assured destruction),and ,instead ,opted for the terrifying doctrine of "nuclear primacy". Implementing this involves establishing the missile bases in Eastern Europe, which Russia believes are designed to stimy its nuclear capacity.
4. There are also dangerous ideological impulses , locally ( like Ossetia) and globally. Europe feels threatened by a Russian monopoly of energy supplies.On the other side, Russia fears it is back to the bad old days of encirclement. But it is now off its knees,
inspired by alarming nationalism and not a little paranoia, which derives from the series of invasions it has suffered.
5. The global conflict over oil and gas also includes China and Iran.
6. WW1 started in not dissimilar circumstances.
Leslie