Good article Michael;
The problem is that you are preaching to the
converted. I recently attended a forum on global warming put on
by the local council. Talking to some of the council officers in the
sustainability dept of the council, yes they do have one, it was
quickly obvious that they did not have a clue. They had no idea that
we could be facing shortages at the pump within two or three years.
Their eyes just betrayed their inability to even consider the possibility.

I suggested to them that larger bus terminals would be needed at the
railway station for those remote commuters who would stop using cars.
They just could not see it.
The better attitude on the Sunshine Coast is probably because they
have a Transition Town Group there.

Somehow we need an Al Gore of peak oil.

An earlier post indicated we should just wait until shortages show up
and then people will adjust and find solutions.
He needs to read the Hirsch report. It now looks like we will need
the 20 years to adapt as Hirsch suggested.

I should have said earlier that the scarcity of oil, OR high prices for it, would be the trigger to change our energy habits. To the ordinary consumer of course, he couldn't care less if there is a scarcity or not. All he's sees is the damage done to his wallet.

Haven't read the Hirsch report, but I don't doubt society might take 20 years to adapt. However, I'd suggest that the train wreck, if that is what it turns out to be, as a result of peak oil, will probably take the same sort of time to play out. So the fallout from peak oil won't all be instantaneous, but play itself out in waves over time. As each shock wave hits society, it will respond accordingly with its own countermeasures. This is not necessarily the best way to do things, but expecting anything else is probably unrealistic.

Really Bernie..... Tar Sands? It's NOT about the money Bernie, it's about the energy. Energy returned on energy invested. It doesn't matter how much or how little oil costs, tar sands can never make an energy profit.

Tar sands are the pits. Literally. Highly polluted water pits. Needing squillions of gigaJoules of gas energy to thaw out, just as Canada is fast running out of the stuff too. Then there's the ticklish issue of all those 200 tonne diesel trucks.... but let's not get a few facts get in the way of the truth.

In any case, there must be a darn good reason Shell's pulling out. Not making money either perhaps?

RobP; The Hirsch report is well worth the read.
It was commissioned by the US Dept of Energy.

There have been suggestions that watching the decline rate is the wrong parameter.
We should watch the export rate which will produce a significantly steeper decline.
The decline also increases much faster.
The idea is that higher prices produce greater expenditure internally
in the exporting countries and as their standard of living increases
then their oil use increases and leaves less for export.
This causes higher prices which increases the income for exporters
so around and around we go.

RobP

No doubt society will adapt. A “paradigm of pragmatism” will develop as the scarcity or cost of our basic energy source escalates.

But it won’t happen in an even or fair manner. In fact, the powerful and ruthless will rule the day, in the absence of strong governance.

I certainly do not hold the view that we should maintain business as usual and only change in a reactionary manner as oil prices rise. I very strongly support the notion of a strong visionary government that can optimise a smooth transition into the post fossil-fuel era.

All sorts of things can be done without inducing an embolism in the economy…. starting off with a winding back of immigration and a stated desire from the Rudd government to steer this country onto a genuinely sustainable base with a stable population and a stead-state dynamic economy.

This is the very least that can be done to initiate the necessary new paradigm.

Ludwig,

Fair enough. With leaders like John Brumby and Kevin Rudd, you've got the best chance of your wish coming true.

From what I heard of the Victorian budget this morning, Brumby has definitely got the smarts as he realises that maintaining society is a multi-dimensional balancing act - eg there is a need for some tax relief across the board as well as a need to fix up political pressure points such as the relative decline in wages of important public sector workers. If this attitude was extended to bigger examples of imbalances in our world such as "peak oil" and immigration, you are right we would all be living in a smoother and more comfortable world.

We'll see how things work out.