Funny thing about these visionaries AFAIK none of them rode there on a pushbike and stayed at a backpackers hostel.

You make the point that the summit did not address the crucial problems of our current society, citing peak oil, transport, presumably of goods as well as public transport, the dying river, population.
Though hinted at the lack of a flow of accurate information to the electorate was not considered.
This despite several recent examples in which public information did not match the reality. Iraq springs to mind but such deception as this is quite common, as John Quigly records in ‘The Ruses for War’. The techniques for wider misinformation in Australia was analysed by Alex Carey and brought up to date by Francis Wheen in “How Mumbo Jumbo Conquered the World’.
In a word information is now labelled ‘Spin‘.
But the use of information to control people goes further for we now have data bases for issues that concern each electorate and thus what should be targeted by local members for re election, such as Voter Vault.
Maybe this does not matter for accurate information would limit opportunity for scams such as the latest Sub Prime Mortgage whose origin lies in removing many of the financial controls designed to prevent a rerun of the 1929 crash.
But this goes even further for the market economy as a paradigm for stable economic growth, less government interference that is a free market much talked up in the media, is a scam. Not only has GDP growth been less than formerly but economic crashes and bail outs are more frequent, debt higher and indeed much that had been regarded as of sound value is worthless. Government spending as percentage of the GDP increases and funding of superannuation is based on a volatile and often worthless market.
Financial movement is unhindered promoting profit but less stability.
Does this matter when people in general seem content to live in an unreal world one which like the press offers short term satisfaction of needs, trivia and entertainment?
Perhaps not for humans seem to be prone to short term views a fact well played upon by market gurus, and voiced by the media.

Naturally ‘Spin’ as information is not the only item of sensitivity to the establishment missing from the Summit.
Also missing is the now apparent to all need for a new economic paradigm, presumably one in which the assumption of infinite resources and ability to find substitutes needs to be updated for reality.
A recent article has pointed out that the much critiqued ‘Limits to Growth’ is now proving to be correct on many issues, appearance of problems just taking longer than forecast. Daly, in Daly and Cobb “For the Common Good” suggested earths resources be priced and their misuse of this capital noted. Many disagreed and this and many similar achieved obscurity, dismissed as an attempt by the green lobby to dictate to business.
Granted if such is built into a new paradigm the capital value of resources will be higher so many having been squandered. Similarly infrastructure has been under funded with the swing to privatisation, to the point of interfering with profits.
More partnerships of private and government funding is necessary should business require a profit.
Equally any new paradigm must accord due notice of the elite’s needs for control and recognise their creative ability in inventing yet another, well, spin.

Great article Michael. It asks many questions and not just in the energy area.

I'd love to see a complete list of all participants, their area of expertise and their history of political party membership.

One area that intrigued me was industrial relations. I have not seen one comment on what our industrial relations system will be like in 2020 or even 2012 for that matter. Unionists were conspicious by their absense from the great ideas summit. Does that mean 'the best and brightest' are to be excluded in that particular area. I reckon that's been the case for years anyway. Not much changes ... does it eh?

I totally agree Michael. The Summit was dismal in the lack of discussion on our most urgent issue – peak oil, and apparently also on other issues of paramount importance; especially the basics of sustainability and the complete absurdity of the continuous growth paradigm.

‘How can we now get the public to take seriously peak oil concerns when these have not been rubber-stamped as 'valid' by Rudd’s Summit?’

With great difficulty.

I could never have believed that the Summit could be this bad.

This, combined with Rudd’s increase to immigration and pending increase to the baby bonus, is very ominous indeed. He is shaping up to be considerably worse than Howard.

Michael, I agree-I believe the summit process is one that is positive, but ignoring peak oil and assuming the economy built on cheap oil will be immune is crazy. The biggest issue we will face in the next ten years will be fossil fuels basically running out. I see an almost calous disregard for the effect fuel costs will have on the vast majority of Australians who live far from public transport and jobs. As an inner city dweller there is almost a gleeful anti -suburbs snear when talking about peak oil. Most summiters would not be from the far flung burbs but these are the people who will be most affected as their incomes are be chewed up trying to get to their jobs and schools 20-40 km away. As someone said our future is inner city eco enclaves surrounded by Mad Max suburbs.

Michael, you made Energy Bulletin - congratulations:

http://www.energybulletin.net/43115.html

Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of pretty good oil nears $120 - watch this space.

Thanks in part to the price of oil, the price of mechanically / chemically grown, processed and distributed food climbs ever higher. This magnifying effect is called "leverage" by the blue-eyed pundits on TV - those passive observers who would otherwise have nothing to contribute to society.

In the meantime, Wayne Swan comes out and says that the answer to the impending food crisis is to build more supermarkets. Is this a Cargo Cult or what?

It worries me that after so much hard work and passion, we may have only swapped one bunch of toolheads for another.......

The summit was a non-event, and it is naive to think that it could have been otherwise. Imagining that the summit might play a role in shaping the future is like thinking that the commemtators play a major role in the outcome of a game. In fact, they have a lessor role than the spectators.

What is needed to obviate the threat of peak oil is cheap and efficient energy storage. A major breakthrough may only be a matter of months away. If it happens it will be a landmark in human history, and remembered long after this flea circus is forgotten.

Fester, I don’t consider it naïve to have thought that the Summit could have been a very significant event. All that was necessary for it to be hugely significant was IMHO for the issues of peak oil, population stabilisation and genuine sustainability to be the most important things discussed…or even the only things.

That wasn’t too much to expect, given the awareness now present in the general community and government, as is evident by the number of articles and amount of discussion on OLO.

I rather think that to hold out any hope for a major breakthrough in energy supply that is at all comparable with oil and which has the potential to halt the impending huge economic and quality-of-life changes is naïve, especially while the business-as-usual paradigm remains entrenched.

The breakthrough that we desperately need is psychological. It is the realisation, from the top levels of government right through to the grass-roots community, that we really do need a paradigm shift away from the madness of continuous growth…and to put ourselves on the equivalent of a war footing in our efforts to address peak oil issues…or else we face the very real prospect of society breaking down.

Good article Michael. The public, prompted by the media fell for the fresh faced Mr Rudd who promised little and has delivered only "feelgood" statements. The man with "New Ideas" had to convene a summit including such noted "thinkers" as Kate Blanchett and Hugh Jackman and other media friendly visages to present some new ideas for him.

Oddly enough, one of the "Big Ideas", the bionic eye had already been invented!!

Rudd is all about appearances and has little or no substance.

Lets just pray he doesn't hold our fate in his hands one day. Maybe he already does.

Ludwig

I thought that the purpose of the summit was to find ideas to maintain continuous growth. The merit of continuous growth was never on the agenda, and why would it be? It isn't even a choice I can exercise at the ballot box.

I share your view that continuous growth is a flawed concept, but I do believe that technology has a lot to offer.

Yes, it seems that the purpose was indeed to maintain continuous growth and to uphold business as usual.

I reckon that it won’t be long – a couple of years – before the community comes to strongly condemn Rudd for that, rather than using the Summit as an attempt to initiate moves towards a steady state economy and population and a genuinely sustainable basis for our society.

Well, it is now patently clear that Rudd is completely hopeless when it comes to governance in relation to our really big and all-important issues.

The momentum will just have to build from the grass roots up.

In this regard, there is some optimism. There is clearly a lot of concern present in the general community, as is evident on OLO. Some local government authorities have in the past talked by the desire to cap their populations.

And now, the Mayor of the Sunshine Coast regional council, Bob Abbott, has announced a strong desire to cap population and keep economic growth down. He says that he is just reflecting the wishes of his constituency. He has the strong support of Ron Clark, Mayor of the Gold Coast.

Bob Abbott was well known as an advocate for a population cap when he was Mayor of Noosa shire. He won a hard-fought race for the mayoralty of the new super council, and no doubt won directly due to his stance on this issue.

Ludwig,

A comment on peak oil:

It is a big issue, but I'd suggest too big even for Governments to turn around without risk of introducing an air bubble into their economies. As the economy is an aggregate of the labours of many diverse activities over centuries, the one thing you can say with certainty is that it is an empirical process. Given this, what exactly are governments going to do about the issue - have a summit or knock up some white papers? Even if they create a "green market", at the end of the day, if it can't be made workable or profitable by the doers in society, it just won't go anywhere.

The solution is the same as it's always been: when there's a need for a change, someone will be there to make it happen. If the blueprints and past talkfests don't help, they'll be out the window and replaced by a paradigm of pragmatism. And the best thing to trigger the paradigm shift, will be the scarcity of the resource itself. I have confidence that people will quickly find ways to adapt when faced with that reality when it comes.

Regarding 'peak oil.'

There is another possible interpretation of this idea.

That the steep rise in the oil price (and all other commodities and 'hard' assets) is driven by monetary inflation, which has been in runaway territory for at least a decade now. The 'perpetual growth' model is more or less now spent and relies on money flow to keep the facade up.

The supply/demand fundamentals are debatable and it is not absolutely incontrivertable that they are in dis-equilibrium.

Its possible that global warming, geo-political tensions and supply/demand speculations are all being either contrived and/or exagerated to JUSTIFY a rising oil price, without the oil-oligarchy price-fixing shennanigans being challenged.

This sort of inflation is both a hidden form of taxation (fiat currency debasement) and a hidden transfer of wealth/labour/resources. Thankfully, its not that hard to get off this slippery slope and not get sucked into a life of supporting the shennanigans. Moderate spending and consumption and find purpose in something beyond stuff, status and mindlessly satiating one's desires.

It doesnt help that the USA is dumping staggering amounts of credit/money into the system and consequently, anyone who is trading anything for those increasingly over-supplied (and progressively worth less) dollars, want more of the depreciating 'promises to pay.' Countries with pegged currencies compound the problem. The worlds 'reserve currency' literally has no bottom, as it backed by nothing. This is what happens when a currency is backed by wanton aspiration, consumerism, materialism (in the physicalist sense), self immolating desire and unconscious subservience to emotion and blind reaction.

Just a thought.

Kevin Rudd had his photo taken looking thoughtful, smiling with the Stars, sitting on the floor looking thoughtful,smiling with Cate Blanchett, smiling looking thoughtful.
For him it was a total triumph.
Was a photo taken of Peter Garrett looking thoughtful with a plastic bag?

Australia's prime Minister Rudd just had a 2020 intellectual summit. He has placed himself and Labor in an intellectual bolt hole thinking he is safe from the realities of a peakoil, overpopulated global civilisation that by the second-law-of-thermodynamics will drive human beings to incredible barbarism to maintain living standards.

There won't be police to solve crimes. Fuel will be reserved for elites. It will be akin to living in a jail without guards.

The 2020 summit's task was to forge future energy-guzzling concepts for a never ending economic and population growth Australia. The trend was to glamorise & effectively censor realistic doom-and-gloom insights.

Hence, the summit predictably concluded that by immigrating millions more people and charging them 10% GST tax on everything they spend, Australia could have the income to become a world military, economic and cultural power to rival the US.

The problem is, when all the doom-and-gloom views were censored so too were the realities: peakoil transport costs will prohibit economic & development growth. Law-and-order will be too expensive to service. Millions of extra 'skilled' immigrants all across the nation will no longer be be GST tax fodder but motivated groups ready to take advantage by force or be employed by corporations in private armies.

Only facing Doom-&-Gloom can we hope to outmatch it:

1.Immigration must cease immediately. Its link to GST revenues is stupidity and greed. It alienates government from electors. It serves little purpose to immigrate skills when corporations have become too lazy and corrupt to pay for training employees.

2.The search for GEOTHERMAL energy locations must be top priority ahead of clean-coal. One Geothermal well should be drilled for every oil well. The reasons are clearly expounded at WWW.DIEOFF.ORG.

Its not a lot to ask. Two edicts. The time for economic growth based on population numbers is OVER. Its time to use our collective intellects to create economic growth in absentia of population growth. We CAN do it! Further, it can be shown that the second law of thermodynamics guarantees such economic growth if 1 & 2 above are implemented sooner rather than later.

The shallowness of Lardelli's arguments is highlighted in his final paragraph where he says that 160 UK residents have died from eating beef over the past 18 years. Compare this with the 9 million who died of other causes over the same time period and you get an idea of his lack of perspective on this so-called peak oil issue.
The reality is that, if and when we reach peak oil, scarcity will send the price of remaining oil resources sky high, making it economic to extract oil from tar sands or to obtain energy from a wide range of sources that are currently uneconomic. The world will have to adapt to the financial consequences of reduced oil availability because we simply won't have any choice. In the meantime, we should stop bleating about the end of the world as we know it and get on with living life in a more expensive, oil depleted world.

Bernie, I suggest you do a little research on the Canadian tar sands before making a comment like "....making it economic to extract oil from tar sands..."

To be viable to extract oil from tar sands requires the price of a barrel of oil to be above $60. It's currently $117 a barrel and has been over the magic figure of $60 for some time, but you won't see tar sands being any kind of saviour for our energy woes. Why? Energy of course!

It takes massive amounts of steam created by either electricity or gas to melt the tar (not oil) from the sands. It then takes another massive dose of energy to refine this sticky black ooze into some form of usable oil. The problem is that Canada doesn't have gas to waste, nor copious amounts of spare electricity. In fact the electricity grids of both the US and Canada are beginning to strain at the seams. The same is happening in other countries too.

You also state.... "The world will have to adapt to the financial consequences of reduced oil availability because we simply won't have any choice."
Taking into account the riots over food in parts of the World at present and considering that all modern agriculture relies on the availability of cheap and abundant oil, how long do you think it will be before Australia experiences civil unrest due to escalation food prices?

Bernie, forgive me if I'm wrong, but you sound to me like someone who lives well above the current poverty line and one who believes money will continue to be freely available to you, but you won't escape once the tsunami of PO arrives on your door step.

Good article Michael;
The problem is that you are preaching to the
converted. I recently attended a forum on global warming put on
by the local council. Talking to some of the council officers in the
sustainability dept of the council, yes they do have one, it was
quickly obvious that they did not have a clue. They had no idea that
we could be facing shortages at the pump within two or three years.
Their eyes just betrayed their inability to even consider the possibility.

I suggested to them that larger bus terminals would be needed at the
railway station for those remote commuters who would stop using cars.
They just could not see it.
The better attitude on the Sunshine Coast is probably because they
have a Transition Town Group there.

Somehow we need an Al Gore of peak oil.

An earlier post indicated we should just wait until shortages show up
and then people will adjust and find solutions.
He needs to read the Hirsch report. It now looks like we will need
the 20 years to adapt as Hirsch suggested.

I should have said earlier that the scarcity of oil, OR high prices for it, would be the trigger to change our energy habits. To the ordinary consumer of course, he couldn't care less if there is a scarcity or not. All he's sees is the damage done to his wallet.

Haven't read the Hirsch report, but I don't doubt society might take 20 years to adapt. However, I'd suggest that the train wreck, if that is what it turns out to be, as a result of peak oil, will probably take the same sort of time to play out. So the fallout from peak oil won't all be instantaneous, but play itself out in waves over time. As each shock wave hits society, it will respond accordingly with its own countermeasures. This is not necessarily the best way to do things, but expecting anything else is probably unrealistic.

Really Bernie..... Tar Sands? It's NOT about the money Bernie, it's about the energy. Energy returned on energy invested. It doesn't matter how much or how little oil costs, tar sands can never make an energy profit.

Tar sands are the pits. Literally. Highly polluted water pits. Needing squillions of gigaJoules of gas energy to thaw out, just as Canada is fast running out of the stuff too. Then there's the ticklish issue of all those 200 tonne diesel trucks.... but let's not get a few facts get in the way of the truth.

In any case, there must be a darn good reason Shell's pulling out. Not making money either perhaps?

RobP; The Hirsch report is well worth the read.
It was commissioned by the US Dept of Energy.

There have been suggestions that watching the decline rate is the wrong parameter.
We should watch the export rate which will produce a significantly steeper decline.
The decline also increases much faster.
The idea is that higher prices produce greater expenditure internally
in the exporting countries and as their standard of living increases
then their oil use increases and leaves less for export.
This causes higher prices which increases the income for exporters
so around and around we go.

RobP

No doubt society will adapt. A “paradigm of pragmatism” will develop as the scarcity or cost of our basic energy source escalates.

But it won’t happen in an even or fair manner. In fact, the powerful and ruthless will rule the day, in the absence of strong governance.

I certainly do not hold the view that we should maintain business as usual and only change in a reactionary manner as oil prices rise. I very strongly support the notion of a strong visionary government that can optimise a smooth transition into the post fossil-fuel era.

All sorts of things can be done without inducing an embolism in the economy…. starting off with a winding back of immigration and a stated desire from the Rudd government to steer this country onto a genuinely sustainable base with a stable population and a stead-state dynamic economy.

This is the very least that can be done to initiate the necessary new paradigm.

Ludwig,

Fair enough. With leaders like John Brumby and Kevin Rudd, you've got the best chance of your wish coming true.

From what I heard of the Victorian budget this morning, Brumby has definitely got the smarts as he realises that maintaining society is a multi-dimensional balancing act - eg there is a need for some tax relief across the board as well as a need to fix up political pressure points such as the relative decline in wages of important public sector workers. If this attitude was extended to bigger examples of imbalances in our world such as "peak oil" and immigration, you are right we would all be living in a smoother and more comfortable world.

We'll see how things work out.