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The Forum > Article Comments > Sceptics will have their day > Comments

Sceptics will have their day : Comments

By Mark S. Lawson, published 17/4/2008

The argument is if human activity has added to the current, natural warming cycle: and if it hasn't then why spend up big on carbon trading?

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Thanks for the article Mark. Probably the least inflammatory and most balanced anti AGW article I've read. Well done.

However I must take you to task about your interpretation of the science.
Since a boomer year in 1998 solar forcing has been dropping. As a major player in global temperatures you would expect the trend of global temperatures to fall as well. However this is not the case, although warming has slowed somewhat as a result. (Unless you're the type of chap who might claim the globe has cooled because you have fudged the averages to produce the result you want http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-warming-stopped-in-1981.html).

Rhamstorf concludes "Overall, these observational data underscore the concerns about global climate change. Previous projections, as summarized by IPCC, have not exaggerated but may in some respects even have underestimated the change, in particular for sea level" http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Rahmstorf_etal.pdf
This is consistent with his observations "Carbon dioxide concentration follows the projections almost exactly..."
And
"The global mean surface temperature increase (land and ocean combined) in both the NASA GISS data set and the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit data set is 0.33°C for the 16 years since 1990, which is in the upper part of the range projected by the IPCC. Given the relatively short 16-year time period considered."
The "embedding period of 11 years" I believe is a statistical reference beyond my ken as well.

The next time you ask some "Australian scientists", try to include Dr Barrie Pittock. http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/4992.htm

Again thanks for the article. Nice to see some non-inflammatory discussion from the other side of the fence for a change. Keep it up.
Posted by T.Sett, Thursday, 17 April 2008 11:10:26 AM
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<i>Posted by Mr. Right, Thursday, 17 April 2008 9:54:00 AM</i>

Wow. With such clear facts and a compelling argument as that I'm sure you convince people in the thousands by the minute.

Try this, stop doing what you're accusing others of doing. Go research some stuff for yourself. Have a look at what others have written, try to debunk them using science. It's far more effective than name calling (alarmist, sheep etc.)
Posted by T.Sett, Thursday, 17 April 2008 11:26:48 AM
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True repentance from lust, greed, desire for power.. will fix us.

Faith in Christ.. will not only fix us, but save us.

"Human activity" is just a euphemism for the power struggles of man against man. In order to be the top dog, you have to cripple the others with some well placed bites to the hammy's.

Once ur top.. you then 'rule benevolently' for the good order of the pack.. (so you tell us anyway)

"he who is first will be last, and the last shall be first" said Jesus.

"He who would be great among you must become servant of all"

Now.. that doesn't sound like much fun to the carnal mind, that's why it takes 'Salvation' for it to become meaningful to the human heart.
Posted by BOAZ_David, Thursday, 17 April 2008 11:31:07 AM
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I have spoken to Barrie Pittock - mind you decades ago when the first started talking about climate change, but nothing much has changed. The problem is not, and here I must repeat, that climate is changing. Obviously it is. The problem is trying to work out whether humans have had any affect on climate. Take another look at the graph (now in the article I hope). How do we know that human activity has had any affect at any time on the changes we see?
For there is no real way to tell the difference between human induced and natural warming. The argument that industrial gases have caused warming rests on comparisons of computer models - a point has been made time and time again.
The point about the solar cycle is an excellent one. Although temperatures may generally follow the cycle down and probably will, there will be a lot of variation. Any forecasting on our current state of knowledge is largely a waste of time, particularly in the short term. Because the system is so complex, it will probably still be a waste of time when we know more.
Posted by Curmudgeon, Thursday, 17 April 2008 11:36:02 AM
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Reducing pollution, developing sustainable technologies, recycling instead of filling rubbish tips are hardly actions which will destory the much vaunted Economy.

Yet these "business-as-usual" people would have us focus on more argument and no action.

Now, Boaz, you proselytised:

"True repentance from lust, greed, desire for power.. will fix us.

Faith in Christ.. will not only fix us, but save us."

As a religion, Christianity has had 2000+ years where faith in Christ produced the Crusades, the Inquisition, Ku Klux Klan (just a few notables).

None of which would indicate that a belief in Jesus will have any effect on pollution, depleting resources, over-population, water shortage nor provide us with any practicable solutions.

You have just been bragging about your "green" efforts on my discussion thread on sustainable action, but here you can't offer anything of any worth.
Posted by Fractelle, Thursday, 17 April 2008 11:50:52 AM
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In a universe full of pushers the biggest pusher in our part of the world is good old sunnyboy. Whilst we can study sun spot numbers I find that it is the aa index of geomagnetic activity that gives the best indication of what has happened since 1884. Does it occur to anyone that poor old sunnyboy is, to use the current parlance, guilty and the sinner but hasn’t been put on trial yet? Plus how is it unreasonable to understand that all we are experiencing is within normal natural cycles?

Our production of CO2 is puny in the scheme of things with a minuscule effect on temperature but this means little to try-hards or a particularly nasty media priest class who believe they are the weather maker or opportunist bankers or spivs wanting to make big money out of thin air. My alarm is best seen in the popular media and with our national broadcaster just about every day where all news ends up dealing with anthropogenic global warming. These are clearly misleading reports which should be preceded by a disclaimer that it is propaganda.

I feel all Australians have an important fiduciary responsibility to manage our economy on sound economic principles without regard for risky superstitious climate schemes that will make the subprime bubble look tame by comparison. i.e There is no due diligence when it comes to climateering spivs.

I particularly don’t want a colder world because of the hardship it will bring to humanity and nature but I must confess my growing desire to flush these charlatans down the dunny.
Posted by Keiran, Thursday, 17 April 2008 11:54:27 AM
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