meeting targets set by scientists is going to take painful effort. it is useless to say to developing countries that they must bear the pain ahead of those countries whose profligate cultures created the problem. australia is one of those countries. australia must lead by example. after plans are in train to achieve national goals, advice and admonishment from australia will have some weight. until substantive action is taken, australian pollies will have no influence.

Australia can hardly create problems on the scale of, say, India and China.

The Australian figures are per capita, and a mere puff compared with high population countries.

Whilst we continue our increasing importation of goods from developing countries, we very much contribute to the climate change problem.

I think Australia should be debited with emissions from LNG and the 80% of black coal that is exported; after all we could simply not renew contracts. In that light Australia is a major international carbon pusher not just a domestic energy glutton. If we were taking meaningful steps to cut emissions at home we would have the moral authority to exercise several forms of leverage. First I would extend the long awaited carbon cap to exports so customers have to go on the same carbon diet. Cap and trade is supposed to arrive in 2010 but I suspect it will be full of loopholes. Second we could stipulate that supply of yellowcake and ores are conditional on coal cutbacks in the importing countries. Third we could slap a punitive carbon tariff on their finished goods...this seems to be the latest EU thinking.

Put it another way; Australia needs something from China, namely export dollars but also carbon cuts. China needs something from Australia, namely raw material imports and a buyer for finished goods. Surely there must be a trade-off somewhere.

Arthur Tomas' paper seems to be written on the assumption of business
as usual. It assumes that coal imports will rise to match the demands
of all those new coal fired power stations.

It also assumes that the increase in car ownership will continue on
in an unrelenting surge. Already China is having problems keeping fuel
up to their present fleet of cars and trucks.

If PM Rudd think China will reduce its production of CO2 I feel he is in
for a disappointment. China seems determined to bring its population
up to western standards of living no matter what.
They will find it is not possible, but they will destroy everyone's
economy trying.

The next Kyoto agreement has already failed simply because China can
not accept CO2 levels that will mean other countries reductions have
any purpose and will be abandoned.

The only possibility is that the peak of oil, coal & gas will mean
that China's economy will be brought to a halt.

Leigh? hello?