I expect the True Socialist Revolution will happen about the same time as the Second Coming of Christ.

Dream on, comrade.

Perhaps a social democratic revolution rather than a socialist one ? Once the fiction of a communist society has been once and for all overthrown and the capitalist elite who run the Communist Party across China have abandoned their pretence at being communists, who knows, maybe it may be a very slippery slope for them. Live in hope.

Rhys, I'm with you there, mate.

I also wonder exactly how much time the writer actually spends in China? Or is this just an academic opinion based on lists, facts, figures, percentages? I would be interested to learn how much time he spends drinking with workers, or talking to people in parks or inviting debate in the Universities? What is his first-hand knowledge of the Chinese mind-set?

If he lives and works and socialises there then perhaps this opinion could be considered a valid commentary. But otherwise he's just another Westerner trying to read an oriental palm.

there are a great many unhappy people in china, but it's difficult for them to organize, the army is well fed and supported by oz materials transmuted into oz dollars, and a great many other foreign currencies as well. as long as the money flows in, there'll be no revolution.

the 'communist' party remembers how to organize a revolution, if nothing else, and is in no immediate danger.

predictions of the imminent rising of the oppressed have passed optimism and moved on to humor. even the trots finally had to wrap a green watermelon rind around themselves to fend off laughter.

but there will be riots, as various groups find they cannot cope with socialism with chinese characteristics. real revolution may happen when things grow quiet, and the money doesn't get spread widely enough. but empires flourish and die with oppressed lower classes, and china at least understands the problem.

Don't be silly. All Chinese, whether poor or rich, are capitalists at heart. Second, only 45 million unemployed is nothing like what was happenning in China between 1840 and 1927, nor are the Japanese invading China, and Chinese women are far less repressed and therefore far more conservative than they were 70 years ago.

From the article

“Revolution in China may not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. And it will not be and cannot just be a demand for political freedom - that demand will slide into calls for economic freedom.”

I could agree with that,

However, what I disagree with is

“Socialism - the working class democratically running society - will be on the agenda. Then all the world will change.”

The first thing is the “working class” do not want to be “working-class”, not if they can get half a chance at becoming “middle-class”.

The only ones who aspire to being “working class” are the indolent, half-witted offspring of the upper-class, who are trying to throw off their personal guilt for inheriting the affluence of their predecessors.

“Socialism” will never ever be on then agenda, for the very reason Lenin gave

“Communism is the goal of socialism”

That the deluded continue to think that socialism will cure or resolve anything surprises me. However, the principles of libertarian democracies, freedom of speech, freedom of association, allow for the deluded to promote their half-witted and flawed ideals.

Libertarian government does not presume to protect the deluded from their delusions

Keep in mind the importance of comparison, in the emergence of societal thinking.
China, with decades of the rigidity of totalitarian control, is now exposed to a degree of alternative societies such as the West, and closer to home, the outstanding economic and capitalist successes of Taiwan.
Whilst in Taiwan last year, I was interested in exploring the mindsets of both the Minchintang, the then Democratic Progressive Party government, and the opposition Kuomintang followers.
Within both, I found strong political (policy in the truest sense of the word) differences, but also a bonding of fellowship with their mainland Chinese brothers.
China resents Taiwan's success from the time that Chiang Kai Shek's Kuomintang cast the nation off from the Communist mainland, and probably also resents that the 20 million population is thriving, progressing, and independent.
The comparison must surely be striking to the vast numbers of mainlanders who see an alternative society so close offshore.
China's present trade expansion with capitalist nations will underscore the sigificance of the differences between their own tightly regulated society, and those of their trading partners.
It could just be a trigger for action by those with a new found realisation of just what might be achieved.

I agree that the True Socialist Revolution as the leftists mean it, will happen about the same time as the Second Coming of Christ, probably few million years later.
About the Communist Party of Chine, few years before it asked the leaders of the Socialist International to become member of the SI and of cause the SI did not accept it as member of cause the lack of Democracy and no respect to Human Rights. The socialist International is an International Political Organization where belong the socialist Parties, mainly in South Europe, the Social Democratic Parties, in Central or North Europe, The Labor Parties in Anglo Saxon Countries and many other parties from Africa, Asian and South America. Current president of the Socialist International is the president of PASOK, Greek Socialist Party George Papandreou.
The True Socialist Revolution is a good excuse for the lazy , immature and irresponsible leftists to do nothing.
For real progressive people the fight for a better world is a permanent every day fight in different sides, levels and corners of our planet. The fight for Human Rights, for Migrants Rights, for Women Rights, for Democracy, for Peace, for Social Justice, for extent and deepen of Democracy, for better Health and Education System, The fight for understanding and Cooperation between people from different religious, cultures, nationalities, the fight for Strong International Bodies as the UN, Criminal Court, the fight for strong International Non Government Organizations, as Amnesty International, Greenpeace etc All these and much more are parts of the True Socialist Revolution.
Antonios Symeonakis
Adelaide

Col Rouge got it right when he said that nobody WANTS to be working class. Thats certainly true now that the whole of China is upwardly mobile. As someone else mentioned - its now a capitalist society. As long as there is nothing impeding personal acquisition people are quite happy with the status quo of leaving the governing of the country to someone else while they get on with the real, serious business of making money.

The villagers (one doesn't refer to them, as in pre-PC days, as "peasants" anymore) are increasingly given more control over their own affairs and many have collaborated to jump on the bandwagon by turning their villages in tourist destinations, or to combineinto new ventures growing flowers, making paper, reviving what were once cottage industries.

The "pittance" that factory workers are paid is more than their parents or grandparents ever dreamed of and is paying for appliances and devices that most villages had never even heard of even 10 years ago.

Right now I don't think anyone has the time to donate to revolution: capitalism IS the revolution.

Some years ago, an anthropologist predicted that the one-child program and preference for male children would lead to an excess of males in the population, which he saw as leading to future civil unrest. The following cited, and dated 2002, appears to confirm this emerging problem. This may be a more immediate issue, which possibly could have longer term consequences for China.

China Population Information and Research Center (CPIRC)
“As expert and official concerned point out that the long-term high tendency in sex proportion of the newborn children will necessarily lead to the disproportion of male and female population in matrimonial age group, and further the eruption of sharp competition for marriage among masculine population, thereby entailing a series of such problems as swindling and selling women and unstable family relations, etc. And this will further endanger the healthy and stable development of society and economy, for which we must take great account and find out ways and means to solve the problem as soon as possible.”
http://www.cpirc.org.cn/en/enews20020514.htm

Tianamen Square, when workers and students challenged the rule of the dictators, was only 19 years ago (almost). That showed the great potential of the forces opposed to the dictatorship. Those forces can erupt again, this time drawing on the lessons from 1989 to move to success in not only getting rid of the butchers of Beijing and their heirs, but moving from the present economic slavery to econmic freedom in which production occurs to satisfy human need.

Danielle,

Yes, I agree that the problem of the inequality of gender distribution is more a cause for concern than some nebulous rising of the masses. I have thrown myself into the much-publicized policy to raise the status of women.

It is somewhat ironic however, to find that with the adoption of more and more Westernised views, it is becoming more difficult. Cheesy soap-operas, glamorous film stars and a whole "girly" culture is turning modern young women into Chinese Barbies. Their older, feistier mothers and grandmothers are now regarded as passe and ambition as un-feminine. Their value now is becoming the picture they make in a frothy white wedding dress! And they are now in a position to pick and choose.

BTW, I am sure you are aware that "one child" is not strictly adhered to? Villagers, who need more than one child in family businesses, and those who are only children themselves and marry someone else who is an only child, may have two babies. As the current crop of newly-weds start families most are citing a pigeon pair as the ideal.

Romany dismisses John's analysis as hankering for "some nebulous rising of the masses".

Tienanmen Square was not nebulous.

Romany,

Yes, I am aware that villagers do not adhere strictly to the one-child policy.

You mention that couples are now desiring a pigeon pair. Is the authority softening on the issue of the one-child policy. In the past, there were checks as to the strict implementation of this - but, again ... that was some time ago.

I saw the ratio of males per females listed, and at the time it seemed quite alarming.
A society which had such an unbalance was definitely in trouble. Unfortunately, when there is a "problem" looming at home, often the solution is to divert it to an "external" threat. I have no idea if this is occurring now.

I recall mature Chinese women being very strong and definitely wielding a lot of power - at least within the family unit. It is sad that young women are now gravitating towards "girlie-chicks" But that may change once they are established within the home - especially with an over-abundance of available males, and divorce recognised.

There may even become a "peticoat" rule in China :-)

Passy “That showed the great potential of the forces opposed to the dictatorship.”

They would not have dared under Mao’s “benevolent rule”.

“drawing on the lessons from 1989 to move to success in not only getting rid of the butchers of Beijing and their heirs,”

Actually I thought those fellows had been “purged” already.

“present economic slavery to economic freedom in which production occurs to satisfy human need”

Well that is happening, especially the “production occurs to satisfy human need” bit.

Just look at where most of your clothes are made and in return, the Chinese are allowed to own cars and make decisions outside the edicts of Mao’s little red book.

The point is

China has looked beyond itself to see how the real world operates.

China has seen the benefits of trade and has thus become exposed to alternative political processes which have turned Maoist Marxism on its head.

The centrally planned economy, which left people starving, has been replaced by a more liberal system of private capitalism where “hope” in the future is possible.

I think China is deliberately taking things slowly. It may have learned from the pace of change which drove Russia to the point of anarchy.

Removing overnight, a rigid authoritarian social system as happened in Russia, produces the violent reaction of unstructured irresponsibility associated with anarchy. China is wise in taking things slower. It will better serve all its people by allowing the steam of pent up expectations to vent progressively, over a longer time.

Such strategies will avoid the wanton death and destruction associated with “revolution”.

Of course, for your politics we know why socialists like revolution, it is the perfect excuse to blame and hide the inherent failings of the socialist philosophy.

Whereas, instead of fomenting revolution, Libertarian capitalists financed the Marshall plan which rebuilt western Europe after the destruction of WWII.

Danielle “Petticoat rule”

Jiang Qing (Mao’s wife) and the gang of four overthrew Deng and instituted one of the most debased and violent versions of socialism the ever, petticoated at that!

Call it another example of socialist depravity.

Passey,

Did you read my previous post outlining how things have changed in China? If you add that to the succinct post of Col Rouge you have the reason why I used the word "nebulous".

The uprising you refer to happened with the parents of to-days students. Things change - even in China.

Romany

Of course things change. Industrialisation in China has created a working class even more massive than in 1989. Most of the so-called middle class are in fact workers since they sell their labour power.

I doubt even the middle class is bought off.

Objectively China is ripe for revolution. Class divisions are even greater now than in 1989. Subjectively I don't know.

I don't know the state of illegal political and trade union organisations but suspect when the first cracks in the dictatorship appear they will win mass popular support because of their steady day to day work now.

For those who doubt the social contradictions that exist in Chna, and pour scorn on a non-Chinese person for daring to write about big picture ideas there is a Hong Kong Labour Activist speaking at Socialist Alternatives Marxism 2008 at the Uni of Melbourne over Easter.

Special Event: Au Loong-Yu, Hong Kong activist for worker's rights in China speaks at Socialist Alternative's Marxism 2008: Standing Up to Capitalism and War

Au Loong-Yu is a long term campaigner for workers' rights in China. He was a founding member of the Globalization Monitor, a Hong Kong based organisation that played an important role in the massive anti-WTO protests in Hong Kong in 2005. They have highlighted the conditions of Chinese workers and provided a forum for the struggle for democracy and workers rights both in Hong Kong and mainland China.
For a background in the Hong Kong workers and anti-globalisation movement see Au Loong-Yu's interview with New Left Review.

Au Loong-Yu will be speaking in a personal capacity at 2pm Friday March 21 on working class resistance in China as a special feature of Socialist Alternative's Marxism 2008 conference.

The conference runs over the easter weekend from Thursday March 21 to Saturday March 22 at Union House, Melbourne University, Parkville, Victoria.
Tickets are available at waged and concession prices. For tickets or more information please contact:

http://www.sa.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1451&Itemid=137


Other conference highlights include:

- A US speaker from Iraq Veterans Against War

- South African activists – Trevor Ngwane and Zodwa Madiba on anti-privatisation and other struggles taking place in South Africa today.

- Italian Marxist and activist Yurii Colombo

Live music: a Radical History of the Blues

Victory to the Tibetans.

If Chinese workers begin to move against the regime and for freedom, Tibetans can win their country back.

That is a big if, but the Tibetan struggle for self determination could be a spark for Chinese workers to rebel, especially if the Tibetan struggle really does challenge the rule of the Communist party dictatorship and lasts for some time.

My previous post may have given a Tibetan chauvinist tinge to the struggle. Chinese and Tibetan people in the area have a common interest against the dictatorship. So a better way of saying it might be along the following lines.

Victory to Tibet.

If workers begin to move against the regime, Tibetans and Chinese people in Tibet can win their freedom.

That is a big if, but the struggle for self determination in Tibet could be a spark for workers across the country to rebel, especially if the struggle in Tibet really does begin to challenge the rule of the Communist Party dictatorship there and lasts for some time.

It is difficult to tell what is happening in Tibet right now.

One thing is clear. The regime will crack down brutally if need be. The Tibetans need to appeal to Chinese people who also have an interest in freedom and overthrowing the dictatorship.

Their immediate allies must be Han in Tibet. Their other allies should be workers in the major cities of China itself.

But since I do not know the balance of class forces on the ground, and the readiness of the underground trade union movement to take on the dictatorship, my comments may end up as mere dreams. We shall see.

Hey passy, maintaining a monologue with yourself is a bit sad, positively “passe”.

At least you will not have to bother with being challenged by yourself.

At the end of the day, what you promote never has and never will deliver the quality, expectations or aspirations of life possible and achieved under the libertarian capitalist system.

Enjoy, keep up the good work. I will pop back from time to time, when I am in need a belly laugh.

Thanks ColRouge. Actually I was writing for people like you.

The uprising in Tibet makes John's point even stronger. If the moveemtn for self determination does not link up with the most powerful section of Chinese society - Chinese workers - then it is in all probability doomed and the Tibetan people will suffer catastrophically.

Unlike you, ColRouge, I do not find the impending murder of thousands of Tibetans a belly laugh. Then again I guess that is where your so called "libertarian capitalism" (an Orwellian oxymoron) leads you.