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Money explosion to blame for inflation : Comments
By Henry Thornton, published 5/2/2008The Reserve Bank would be irresponsible not to raise interest rates when its board meets today.
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Our economy is a bit like the US in that we have off-shored most of our manufacturing and wealth has been concentrating in unproductive areas: housing, banking profits and "health" industry profits.
Investment in science, technology and infrustructure has stalled, private welfare is rampant (private health subsidies, private schools, PPPs, non-means tested "family" benefits, etc)
But all this is fairly minor compared to the biggies:
Will Nature do something unexpected?
-Decent meteor strike, volcano, methane-ice eruption, East Antartica floats away, etc...
-Or just a "tipping point" climate change effect.
Will the Bushies go to war with Iran to stop oil in Euros?
-Dammned if they do: War is not an economic panacea, it kills morality, transparency and ultimately a countries viability.
To do this they would have to engineer an (another?) Operation Northwoods style 9/11. Not easy when so much of the world is suspicious of motives. Won't stop the warmongers though.
-Damned if they don't: The last 50 years prosperity is largely based around the US currency being necessary to purchase significant amounts of oil. This has artificialy increased the value of the US dollar, and has protected them from the consequences of spending more then they earn.
This is changing because it is just too beneficial to the US to the detriment of every other country. This is not win-win, it is win-loose. The problem is that US believes it *deserves* an unfair advantage. Other countries are starting to disagree. (The world cannot and should not support a wasted war economy!)
Will China's growth stall spectacularly?
-Pollution, Olympics, corruption and/or civil unreast.
I just hope some transparency returns to politics so we can actually make some predictions. (Has Jonny Howard got his US based nuke job yet? Anyone?)