All good stuff, but for the assumption that shipping will be disadvantaged in an energy constrained world. Shipping will increase as the cost of fuel goes up because the the underlying physics, and the cost, volume, profit relationships are superior to that of rail. The ocean "sea roads" are all in place and need no maintenance.

yes, per, sea travel always cheaper than rail. plus, there is a good case for sail powered sea transport, supplemented by solar cell auxiliary power. that's very cheap, and green as well.

but pipelines from china to kazahkstan and iraq will transport gas and oil even cheaper, and are more reliable. for awhile, the industrial and commercial center of the world will be asia.

but fossil fuels will be gone soon enough and renewables are everywhere. national education standards are the only constantly reliable asset.

Water borne transport is the most energy efficient of all.
In addition in the last resort the modern sailing clippers now
being designed can can take over from all fossil fuels driven ships.

But nobody says anything about the tech advanced nuke powered ships?
Who will be the first?{cargo ships}
Can Aussie deny port access? What will NZ do?
May be not coal trains accross asia but nuke ones.
fluff4

Hmmm, yes fluff4, I certainly did not think about nuclear powered ships.
Long term peak uranium is only about 40 years away and shipping may not
be able to compete for fuel against electricity generation.
Also shipping may not get a ration as they can use the wind.

While recognising the advantages of wind power BAZ, ie new tech, I could if pressed remind you of lots of disadvantage in wind power.
It's slower for one, the modern economy of last minute ordering and holding little stock is established, it can of course be moderated.
Forty years for nuke? have you ref? I need to read more.
thanks fluff4