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The Forum > Article Comments > The defining issue for transport planning is peak oil, not traffic congestion > Comments

The defining issue for transport planning is peak oil, not traffic congestion : Comments

By Stuart McCarthy, published 19/10/2007

The peak and subsequent decline in world oil production will soon become the defining issue for transport planning.

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We will still be using cars after oil runs out.
The only difference is that they will be electric. This is not a future possibility. It is possible to convert any car to electric today if you wanted to.

In California, electric car freaks even drag race them, so they need not be considered to be some feeble alternative to petrol cars, only that they are limited to about 300 KM per recharge.
Posted by roama, Saturday, 20 October 2007 8:24:48 PM
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Pericles, except you're assuming that the economy stays afloat well enough to support high employment. Were oil start to become genuinely scarce, it's somewhat unlikely this will be the case. Businesses will shed staff, and even fold. Those that aren't dependent on travelling long distances by car will at least have opportunities to look for jobs elsewhere.

OTOH, if petrol prices were to, say, double or even triple, and employment rates held up, then many of those lower-income car-dependent families will have little choice but to cut back on any non-essentials just to afford the commute. Surely that's quite enough of a "negative consequence".
Posted by dnicholson, Saturday, 20 October 2007 9:21:00 PM
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Toyne, the approach taken by the Queensland taskforce regarding the timing of peak oil was to review 'creditable' existing estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Reserves and peak forecasts. Their conclusion, based on a statistical analysis of these existing forecasts, was that the peak will occur in 2013 +/- 7 years, i.e. sometime between 2006 and 2020.

Robelius' study (which is an excellent piece of work) was published only one month before the McNamara report was completed, so I'm not surprised that it wasn't included.

I have written a seperate commentary on the McNamara Report and its release - http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2081
Posted by Stuart of Brisbane, Saturday, 20 October 2007 9:53:14 PM
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Roama, electric cars are fine, but we don't make any in Australia, it would take 15-20 years to replace the existing petrol-driven car fleet even if the economy doesn't tank first, and there is not yet any infrastructure to support an electric car fleet. If you can see an opportunity here - get cracking!
Posted by Stuart of Brisbane, Saturday, 20 October 2007 9:58:53 PM
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Pericles we could all get used to walking around naked living in grass huts again if we were pushed but do we want to?

I must admit that in the not to distant future there will be less of a rush hour due to more people working from home. Why travel 1 hour each way a day to go from 1 computer screen to another?

I think LNG is a good alternative for Australia since we have such large reserves of it.

Some of you might find this link interesting
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/submissions/sub97.pdf
Posted by EasyTimes, Sunday, 21 October 2007 12:15:26 PM
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I am in agreement with the bulk of this article. Totally agree on the assessment of “peak oil”; support the view that a feasible public transport network could (should) be implemented throughout SE Qld and concede that the North-South Bypass Tunnel is ill-conceived.

Where I disagree is the premise of the article: “The defining issue for transport planning is peak oil, not traffic congestion”. Peak oil should be taken into account when planning transport infrastructure for the next 10-20 years, but it is far from the defining issue. As many have pointed out, market forces will influence the spending habits of the populous. Some will seek a public transport option; others will downsize. New technologies will develop, as will different fuel sources.

The overwhelming percentage of commutes will continue to be by private transport for two reasons. The first is convenience and the second is there is no other practical option.

The biggest hurdle to transport policy in south-east Queensland is psychological. There needs to be an acknowledgement by politicians & planners that the Brisbane CBD is not the centre of the universe. For most commuters in the Brisbane region, neither the origin nor the destination is the CBD. Most Brisbanites are employed in the suburbs; Brendale, Wacol, Eagle Farm, Coopers Plains….

Of the people who do work/study in the CBD, an increasing number also reside there. Take out state & local government and their related agencies and there are relatively few commutes where the centre of Brisbane is the origin/destination.

Why is this an important point to highlight? Well, an enormous amount of capital has and continues to be invested on transport infrastructure with the Brisbane CBD at the “hub”. All major roads with exception of the Gateway toll road are funneled into the city, together with the train and bus network. This is absurd. It is a recipe in how to create gridlock. The NSBT will simply extend the gridlock into the suburbs. With or without “peak oil”, this is an issue that needs addressing.
Posted by Concupiscence, Sunday, 21 October 2007 1:07:40 PM
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