Instead of just talking about it there should be action and idea’s.

Firstly I have heard that there is more shale oil in the United States then there is “normal oil” in the middle east. Maybe we should be spending more money on converting shale oil in to a useable fuel.

We should also maybe consider taxes incentives for car producers who make cars for the Australian market with gas cylinders already installed as the fuel source instead of the usual petrol tank.

A far out option is to open the Great Barrier Reef to potential oil exploration. Sure I bet the greenies will be throwing themselves off the top of the Lucas Heights nuclear reactor in protest but tough times call for tough measures. Oil production is a lot safer now and there is a lot less chance of a spill.

I think peak oil is already starting to bite and I believe that oil price spike will only get sharper and sharper!

EasyTimes, yes the world has large shale oil deposits, but the problem here is thermodynamics rather than money. With any energy source you need to put energy into the extraction process before you get the energy out. In the case of shale oil you need to put more energy in (much of it from oil and gas anyway) than you get out at the other end of the process. I read a comment recently that mining cornflakes is a better proposition than shale oil.

We're better off conserving the viable energy sources that we already have and putting them to better use. Public transport is enormously more energy efficient (not only cost efficient) than private cars, that's why it is one of the key peak oil mitigation strategies.

Re: my previous suspicion about average fuel economy in Australia:

"The average fuel efficiency for unleaded petrol-driven passenger vehicles in 2006 was 11.4 litres/100km, which was an 18 per cent decrease from 2005."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613465-12377,00.html

18% in one year is obviously quite a lot. But it's unclear whether it means that in 2005 the fuel efficiency was (11.4 * 118%) /100km = 13.5 L/100km (i.e., it's getting better), or (11.4 / 118%) / 100km = 9.7L/100km (i.e., it's getting worse). Either way, it didn't help the fact that our overall petrol usage is *up* from 2001.

Stuart,

It's great that Queensland has released the report "Queensland's Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices".

The report says the "overwhelming evidence is that world production will peak within 10 years". Does the report define oil? Does production include only crude oil or does it include condensate and natural gas plant liquids?

The report also says "Demand will exceed supply, probably in the next 10 years." Demand is exceeding supply this year - that's why real oil prices have been rising. That's why OPEC countries of Indonesia and Iran are charging higher prices for petrol to their citizens.

I'm surprised that the report did not reference Robelius' thesis done March 2007 this year.
http://publications.uu.se/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625
http://www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFields.html

The thesis was supervised by Kjell Aleklett who launched ASPO Australia in 2005.
http://globalpublicmedia.com/kjell_aleklett_launches_aspo_australia_and_talks_about_peak_oil

The thesis defines oil and predicts peak in either 2008 or best case 2018 which is in agreement with the Queensland report statement. So far peak crude oil and lease condensate production occurred in May 2005 at 74.3 mbd and Jul 2007 was 73.28 mbd. Peak total liquids, including ethanol, was 86.13 mbd in Jul 2006 and Sep 2007 was 85.1 mbd.

When I mention peak oil to most people, awareness is very low. For more info please refer to http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064

Technically demand can only exceed supply as long as there are existing stocks to be exhausted, which is, to a certain extent, what is occurring. If the stocks run down to zero (excluding minimum operating level), demand will be completely contained by supply. What is pertinent is that *projected* demand, (on the assumption that supply is able to meet it, and prices stay reasonable) is set to increase at ~2% a year for at least the next 20 years, largely due to rapid economic development in China and India. In other words, that's a rough approximation of how much extra oil people will be *wanting* to use. At the moment, it is very hard to see how production can be ramped up by 2% a year sustainably over that sort of period, hence there almost certainly won't be enough oil for everyone that wants it, leading to some sort of bidding war. Australia can probably survive a bidding war with China and India for a few years, but it will be a shock to the system, and a lot of people will have difficulty adjusting to petrol prices that make 40+km daily commutes largely unaffordable.

The bidding war has already begun in the developing world with some African and poorer Asian consumers dropping out of the market - meaning that we get to use their oil and the price rises are suppressed below what they might have been if the poorer consumers could pay.

Of course, it is only when Australian consumers can no longer afford to pay that we will give a damn.