Thanks for the link, Taz, especially the fire temp numbers. I knew there were 300's and 900's but left out the 1 in front.

Sir Vivor, you still don't get it. Most of the, as yet, only minimal global warming is in warmer minimums in the cooler parts of the year. That is, when bush fire danger is lowest.

A warmer annual mean temperature for any location is the average of all nightly minimums and all daily maximums. And that means a total of 730 records with only a small proportion of them in the bushfire season. Take away the fuel load with a mosaic of cool burns in winter and any wildfires in summer are restricted in area, restricted in heat intensity and restricted in impact to the severity of a lightning strike on a golf course.

Perseus, you say
"Most of the, as yet, only minimal global warming is in warmer minimums in the cooler parts of the year. That is, when bush fire danger is lowest."
although you offer no figures or sources to back your statement.

But it seems to me that the summary below supports my argument about the significance of increased minimum temperatures in Victoria. Note that an increased risk of bush fire is identified.

http://www.aius.org.au/indicators/sectiontype.cfm?ThemeID=4&SectionTypeID=2

“From 1910 to 2000 Australia’s average temperature increased by 0.76[degrees]C (0.08[degrees]C per decade) with the minimum temperature increasing by 0.96[degrees]C (0.11 [degrees]C per decade) and maximum by 0.56[degrees]C(0.06[degrees]C per decade).

“The rate of increase has been more rapid in the period since 1950 (0.13[degrees]C per decade for maximum temperature and 0.21[degrees]C for minimum temperature).”

“The frequency of extremely warm days and nights has increased since 1957, while that of extremely cool days and nights has decreased.”

(snip)

“Small changes in average temperature can have massive impacts on our weather pattern (the last iceage was the result of an average temperature 5[degrees]C lower than today’s temperature). In environmental terms the predicted changes in Victorian climate would:

increase bushfire frequency

decrease available water for an increasing population

increase impact on coastal communities and ecosystems (from a rise in sea level)”

(snip)

Small changes in average temperature can have "massive impacts" on weather because you are dealing with nonlinear systems. Nonlinear systems include electronic circuits, where controlled changes of a few microamperes can change and control much larger currents. Or economic systems: there you may find extreme feedbacks, like the stock market crash of October 1987, which started out as a set of sell orders, which then cascaded and multiplied through a global network dependent on “expert” software for some decisions.

Or bushfires, where one area can be burnt through to the soil and a nearby area can be left nearly untouched, by chance.

Please be clear that I am not arguing either-or. Climate change and forest management policies are both are important factors in bushfire risk. Do you believe otherwise?

Sir Vivor, your own quote pointed out that the number of extreme cold events has been reduced over time. You also mentioned the claim that total rise in mean temp over the century had been 0.73C so this analysis of a single decadal change of 0.53C in the UK will give a good indication of where the changes are when changes of that magnitude occur.

See the graph at; http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002119.html

Observe that the mid summer maximums have not changed while the winter minimums have risen significantly. Note also that the mild Spring and Autumn periods have extended. This is what makes up a major rise in an annual mean temperature record, movements that are almost entirely WITHIN the historical range of variation.

Your link has the usual bunch of plausible words but they are totally lacking in substance.

The BoM Climate Education site provides oodles of valuable information and insight into Australian Climate Extremes. Incidentally, with all this talk about resurrecting history in school curricula, a study of Australia's known climate history would dispel a lot of nonsense.

On 'Fire' the BoM explains the close relationship between fires and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events.

If you want to call this climate change, fine, but there is no reason to blame 'man', except those men and women who have implemented this daft 'wilderness' idea.

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/fire.htm

Persues, thank you for your comments and your link.

Looking at the link, I can't help but notice that the patterns you use to make your point are based on UK figures. The centrepiece of the link is a graph titled UK MET Decadal Change 1980 - 1989.

I based my comments on Victorian data posted by the Australian Institute of Urban Studies. I am convinced that Australian data is more pertinent to this discussion than UK data. Do have another look before you exclude the possibility that local climate change patterns can contribute to bushfire risk in Victoria.

Let’s knock up another argument for climate change and it’s impact on S E Australian forests. Bad bushfires behave like a furnace on the run.

Recall: big fired running over continuously weeks need two conditions besides ignition, 1) light dry fuel. 2) Strong winds to mix it with O2 in combustion. The fronts must roll over and on.

Note; I’m considering conversion rates in regard to temperatures that enable the event to become self sustaining. Note two; big trees are not part of the equation. I see them only as a pyramid of moisture in the flash through fire dynamics.

In the end any furnace is all about gas. The art of control is all about smoke watching. Bushfire is no exception.

I also recommend looking at Bass Strait SST anomalies during the summer months. Last season it showed us enough rise to account for the super cell storms and other unusual weather up right up the east coast. IMO any discussion on current forest practice must take account of these phenomena.

Turbulence makes wildfires more like man made furnaces. Baked clays and molten sands are hardly life supporting. Extremes not averages become the new issue for all in calculating response to hazardous situations.

Finally, at atmospheric pressures, fuel rich gases including organic dust storms will explode on the slightest compression in the presence of ignition sources.