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The Forum > Article Comments > Give Iran the bomb? Reading Iran's apologists > Comments

Give Iran the bomb? Reading Iran's apologists : Comments

By Jan De Pauw, published 27/9/2007

Iran is a regime that is marked by a high degree of unpredictability. A responsible leader better think twice before giving the bomb away.

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Keith wrote:

"If an Iranian nuclear bomb was detonated in the US, Iran would simply be obliterated in .... minutes."

True. The same is true if an Iranian nuke were to explode in any nuclear armed nation including Israel. That MAY be enough to deter the Mad Mullahs who rule Iran.

However that does not address two problems with Iranian nukes.

-Can the Iranian state keep its nukes out of the hands of terrorists? I question its ability to do so. I doubt terrorists would be deterred by a threat to annihilate Iran especially since the country that suffered the attack MAY NOT KNOW THE ORIGIN OF THE NUKE.

-Would a nuclear Iran ignite a nuclear arms race in the M-E and what would be the consequences of such an arms race?

This last is quite a profound problem. Imagine Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan all with nukes, all eying each other with mutual suspicion.

Remember this Keith:

When faced with the prospect of nuclear attack, a preemptive strike is not an option. It's the ONLY option. All military strategists know and understand that. In the M-E it would result in great instability. How long before the M-E goes up in a fireball?

On a more positive note, my feeling is that Iran has passed a demographic tipping point. Total fertility rate (average lifetime number of babies per woman) is now well below replacement. Iran is a rapidly aging society. Older societies generally do not go to war. Provided Iran can be contained for a decade or so it will probably settle down.

Also, low birthrates are associated with declining religiosity tho' whether this is a cause or effect is a matter of debate. Either way it augurs well for Iran coming out of its current religious dictatorship.

I hope it does. I think the Iranians are better than their mad leaders.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Wednesday, 10 October 2007 10:52:02 AM
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Interesting you blokes assume me and my mates all sit around one computer. Haven't you heard of e-mail, chatrooms or sms?

Paul

But I don't mind your personal abuse it only re-inforces the fact your arguments are lacking substance. I love robust debate but abhor your type of denigration of my personalty in dismissing my opinions.

Don't you think your logic in relation to point 1 a little silly?

In your senario Mehdi will have no where to return.

Danielle

Keep protecting that messenger ... won't you.

Stevenmeyer. Yep your points are valid... the old MAD proposition. Mutually assured destruction. Just what's lacking at present and a senario Israel doesn't want.

Just as a point of interest and not for the first time let's look at Iran's rivals in the region. Have you any idea of their birthrates? And will the same senario apply to the conflict between Israel and say ... ahhhh Palestine.
Sorry couldn't help but think the population of Palestine (Natural increase) is growing at a greater rate than Israels.

I'd always thought lower birthrates were associated with greater prosperity? It's not an area I've spent a lot of time looking at.

I agree the Iranians ... from many reports... and personal contact... do appear to be a lot better than the Mullahs.
And on a personal note thanks for your decency and respect... it is refereshing.
Posted by keith, Wednesday, 10 October 2007 7:11:21 PM
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Steven,

Certainly, the Iranian regime seems a loose cannon and no-one can be sure of what it is capable.

However, Russia as an active partner of CTR, it is unlikely to assist, in any serious capacity, Iran becoming a nuclear power in the Middle East.

Whilst, Ahmadinejad continues to trumpet an intent to dominate the region, Arab states would never accept an Iranian nuclear power unless they were convinced Iran’s nuclear technology was for domestic use only.

As to a nuclear arms race, Arab nuclear know-how would be restricted to international conditions and terms of suppliers. Jordan’s intention to build a nuclear reactor for civilian purposes has long been on the agenda. It is in this context that leaks by Arab governments about gaining nuclear technology need to be assessed.

You question:

Can the Iranian state keep its nukes out of the hands of terrorists? I question its ability to do so. I doubt terrorists would be deterred by a threat to annihilate Iran especially since the country that suffered the attack MAY NOT KNOW THE ORIGIN OF THE NUKE.

Amitai Etzioni and Ted Galen Carpenter, however, believe that if nuclear material/weapons are supplied to terrorists, it is likely to be through the Russian Mafia, rather than by any identifiable state, which would attract (as you state) an immediate and devastating response.

Etzioni observed:

“ In Russia, the central government has been unable to prevent local commanders, criminals, or others who seek a quick profit—from wheeling and dealing in nuclear materials.”

As yet, terrorists have not resorted to nuclear weapons, although apparently available for sometime.

Reports suggest that it is unlikely that Ahmadinejad will be re-elected president if he runs in 2009; he is becoming increasingly unpopular with the ruling elite.

In an understatement, William Samii, an Iran expert with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, said of Ahmadinejad:

"He's sort of a bull in a china shop and neophyte in foreign affairs," ... "He does not have great input on [Iranian] foreign policy. But he hasn't been president six months and he's managed to alienate most of the international community."
Posted by Danielle, Thursday, 11 October 2007 2:10:55 PM
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