The Forum > Article Comments > Give Iran the bomb? Reading Iran's apologists > Comments
Give Iran the bomb? Reading Iran's apologists : Comments
By Jan De Pauw, published 27/9/2007Iran is a regime that is marked by a high degree of unpredictability. A responsible leader better think twice before giving the bomb away.
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"If an Iranian nuclear bomb was detonated in the US, Iran would simply be obliterated in .... minutes."
True. The same is true if an Iranian nuke were to explode in any nuclear armed nation including Israel. That MAY be enough to deter the Mad Mullahs who rule Iran.
However that does not address two problems with Iranian nukes.
-Can the Iranian state keep its nukes out of the hands of terrorists? I question its ability to do so. I doubt terrorists would be deterred by a threat to annihilate Iran especially since the country that suffered the attack MAY NOT KNOW THE ORIGIN OF THE NUKE.
-Would a nuclear Iran ignite a nuclear arms race in the M-E and what would be the consequences of such an arms race?
This last is quite a profound problem. Imagine Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan all with nukes, all eying each other with mutual suspicion.
Remember this Keith:
When faced with the prospect of nuclear attack, a preemptive strike is not an option. It's the ONLY option. All military strategists know and understand that. In the M-E it would result in great instability. How long before the M-E goes up in a fireball?
On a more positive note, my feeling is that Iran has passed a demographic tipping point. Total fertility rate (average lifetime number of babies per woman) is now well below replacement. Iran is a rapidly aging society. Older societies generally do not go to war. Provided Iran can be contained for a decade or so it will probably settle down.
Also, low birthrates are associated with declining religiosity tho' whether this is a cause or effect is a matter of debate. Either way it augurs well for Iran coming out of its current religious dictatorship.
I hope it does. I think the Iranians are better than their mad leaders.