A thoughtful analysis. Thank you.

Under what conditions would you endorse a Labour Government? JWH is the problem for the Lib and the only solution is to vote them out. Then they might be able to reform their party. The Libs on the far right have worked hard to make sure that Peter couldn't take power. There is no way that Power would be handed over to Peter. I think he as finally understood this and that is why he problem wants the libs to lose the next election too. As for the rather silly line of tried and tested Libs verses the untested and risky Labour. If we extended that into the sporting field the only way to get a new player on your team is if someone died..

What a load of arrogant tosh.

The tories are born to rule. Only we know what is good for you.
At least 50% of the population are ignorant fools.

And this is from a man who at the last election was involved in a last minute dishonestly manipulative "personal" telephoning campaign to dissuade people from voting Labour.
And, that when challenged and criticised for it, said that he would do it again, and even more so if necessary.

Well done Graham, you have made a case and nailed your colours to the mast; keep calm, Howard is not going anywhere. Costello would, as you say, bring about annihilation.

It is not that he is not known he is positively disliked. As with Keating, Costello's tongue is his worst enemy. His next major failing is his lack of courage; he is the bright staff officer who avoids the front, much like Beazely.

Howard is putting on a brave face and we might admire him for that. He will go down with the ship and we might also admire him for that and history might judge him a little but only a little more kindly for that.

For the Liberal Party the sad fact is that Costello was never leadership material - Julie Bishop perhaps but not Costello,Turnbull or any of the others that have been mentioned from time to time as possible leaders and Howard knows this.

Significantly Howard doesn't have much time for any of them now, a bit like Whitlam, Keating and Hitler at the end of their regimes.
For better and very much for worse this has been the Howard dynasty, Lord and Lady Kirribilli, and as with all things it is coming to an end.

There never was and never could be a succession plan. The Liberal Family will split and remain that way until some distant family member comes along and revives their fortune.

Keating lost the 1996 election, Howard didn't win it. Beazely, Crean and Latham assisted Howard to stay in power.
Rudd's talent has been to hold a mirror up to Howard and the result is there for us all to see.

It will be Howard who loses this election as he progressively becomes a characterisation of himself with the worst rather than the best aspects on display.
Bruce Haigh

Graham is right.I said months ago the Coalition needed to address the unfair parts of IR reform and they were too slow to correct it.The alarm bells should have been ringing when the Iemma Govt was using IR reform against them in the lead up to the NSW Election.

You don't betray blue collar workers and expect to solve the problem with a few handouts.They are tribal and put a lot of stock allegiance.When they feel that their trust has been broken, retaliation is swift and vengeful.It would have been a quantum leap for many of these voters to switch from Labor after the Keating debacle.That just echoes the pain they went through under his power.

I think it is going to take a lot of pain to get them back.For a long time the Coalition had a lot of traditional Labor voters on their side and eventually this jewel in the crown of the Coalition was taken for granted.Much like many broken marriages.

The author puts forward a very un-Liberal, though perhaps rational strategy for losing. Winning is everything and if they have to draft the drover's dog the Libs shouldn't hesitate. Costello should be drafted, given carte blanche to let rip on the republic, Kyoto, saying sorry, gay marriage and anything else that can come out of his mouth without smirking. The author's Queensland record for the Libs makes him totally irrelevant to advise on a Federal strategy. Draft the cossie to shadowbox the conservative ruddster with a crash through or crash strategy.

"Well done Graham, you have made a case and nailed your colours to the mast..." (Quote:Bruce Haigh)

Indeed he has. And whilst everyone is entitled to a point of view, I think it unfortunate that the MODERATOR of this site should express a leaning to either Left OR Right on his own forum.

I agree though. Howard MUST stay.

That is the only way we are guaranteed of the defeat of this vile Neo-Conservative Government.

"Howard is going to lose this election. In which case the Coalition's most immediate job is to ensure it retains enough seats to make the incoming Labor government accountable. Howard needs to be leader to achieve this"

By the authors own admission the electorate has switched off to Howards message so I find it hard to believe he then has the standing within the party or the electorate to achieve what the author suggests - let alone cut it from "the stump" in a weak opposition as he later argues.

There are almost no "best interests" left for the coalition if the polls are anything to go by - they have a selection of worst case scenarios at best.

The country seems to think re-election is not in its best interests - and the coalition seems not to know where its own really lie.

There seems to be no willing challenger from within the party itself -and internally if Costello and his acolytes thought there really was half a chance of victory you would think they would run against JWH by now - maybe they did a month ago but then the polls sort of looked like they might turn - but now it is too late.

All the pronouncements from Abbot, Costello, Downer and Nelson et all together with their body language suggests they too have given up the ghost - Downer could in fact lose his seat as could Chrispoher Pyne - along with JWH.

Maybe it was hubris (much denied when they won both houses), selfishness, poor timing and judgement - probably a dash of each - but if the Coalition is decimated as the polls suggest - that particualr orpan will have only one father whose initials are JWH

As a gambling man, I see straight through all the hype and noise. I have never seen a team (or it's supporters), with the game safely in their keeping, giving advice to the other side on changing tactics; except that they fear they are about to be steamrolled and are trying to upset the possibility of the opponents refinding their form, by giving idiotic unhelpful advice. Am I wrong?

Calling for Howard to step aside is simply a desperate ploy from the ALP and it's fellow travellers. They fear the comeback kid, but not Costello. One tries to get the easiest draw possible, against the weakest opponent, when you want to win ANYTHING. And so it is in politics (look at the seats, for example, that High-Profile ALP recruits are placed in; well?). Howard is the lion...he's wounded, and appears cornered. Uh, oh. Danger, danger! Better we replace him with some unwounded pussycat or other, eh lads?

What's reinforced this impression of the ALP feeling vulnerable is that Mr Rudd himself has made numerous references to Howard going. Why would he do this since A) Mr Rudd's "sure" to win and B) Howard's going to lose his own seat as well, isn't he?. Just to help the Libs get over the trauma? Cause he wants Mr H to have a pleasant retirement?

Come on guys; get real. These machinations smell of anxiety. My advice; a nice pay-off by betting the outsider will soothe the shock of seeing the fav go under; bet now on the coalition.

Of course ! he must stay on as leader and go to the election.
I want to see the look on his face when he concedes defeat and receives his just deserts for exposing Australians to world terrorism through aligning us with the real terrorists....Bush,Cheney,Rumsfeld,Rove and the neocons.

I havent forgotten the children overboard and the tragedy of the 365 drowned Asylum seekers on the Siev X.

I haven't forgotten his Governments theft of poverty stricken East Timor's resources, nor his failure to stand up for principles when dealing with Indonesian lack of human rights in west Papua

I haven't forgotten his conspiracy with Chris Corrigan to create chaos on the waterfront or his draconian IR laws to cut workers working conditions or the racist invasion of Aboriginal communities under the pretext of saving the little children; His sell out to America in the one-sided Free Trade Agreement; nor his Government's poor memory on the Wheat deals with Saddam Hussein;

an ironic repeat of history when the West Australian Colebatch Government in 1916 continued to sell flour to the Germans in WW1..A memorial to Tom Edwards who died from injuries inflicted by police in an ensuing strike is erected in Fremantle.

Yes John Howard must stay..In another world he would be tried for crimes against humanity

jup

I think you should really take a fair dinkum look at Graham's record when he ran the elections in Queensland for the Liberals. It is not as you have painted. His tenure coincided with record levels of Federal liberal Parliamentarians and of course the election of the Borbidge National/Liberal government, which culminated with Tanti's election in Townsville among the highlights.

maracas

We will all be found guilty re crimes against humanity. Thankfully Jesus made a way for us to be pardoned if we so choose.

Efforts to get rid of John Howard are getting desperate...and it is not all coming from his colleagues by any means...in fact very little is coming from his colleagues. It is being done by the Opposition, the media, the unions...everyone who is still scared that there might be an outside chance of the Coalition winning the election. The efforts to destroy Howard's leadership in front of world leaders at APEC was unforgiveablely rude and lacking in diplomacy.
Rudd's appalling lack of diplomacy (which would have caused considerable embarrassment to the Chinese) by using Chinese publicly rather than privately is an example of how lacking in experience this man is in the international arena. He has an enormous amount to learn before he can even begin to believe he can run the country - however much a few regulars on this forum may hate Howard he is still by far the best thing for Australia.

On the 28/4/06 Nicholas Gruen wrote an article on OLO entitled "Bad Economics and Bad Leadership" Now he's no left wing limp wristed bleeding heart,however was this a forboding quote from his article?

"Howard's proposed IR changes illustrate my point.They are an impromptu mess."

Was no one listening to articles like these in Canberra?Personally I think Labor will be an absolute disaster for all of us.They have less talent than the the eras of Gough,Hawke or Keating.There is no inspirational rethoric or new policies,just reptilian patience waiting for their quarry to tire or get bored.

I can just hear the excuses for for Labor's destruction of our economy.Well Global warming forced us to increase taxes on energy,food,shelter and clothing.All the while their PS bloats like NSW as poor management and waste brings us all to our knees.Will we ever learn?

Born to rule, say the Liberals in imperialist colonialist metaphors.

Yet nowadays with economic rationalism and the corporate culture there is not one true liberal among them.

Work choices for the workers, they say, when any old cockie knows, who had to work with his old man's workers when he was a kid, that all work choices means when the boss holds the whip hand or the big end of the stick, that the choice belongs to the employer.

One might suggest that nowadays one never hears any commentaries on arbitration, or has Howard just used work choices to take its place, and to satisfy a public, so dumbly satisfied when Howard says how they've never had it so good, never suggesting how much we owe to China, not only for cheap personal commodities, but also China's purchasing of our pitstock resources, to which we should be building a massive memorial spiritually thanking Eternity or Mother Nature rather than Johnny Howard.

Ginx said "whilst everyone is entitled to a point of view, I think it unfortunate that the MODERATOR of this site should express a leaning to either Left OR Right on his own forum." I'm not sure I entirely agree Ginx. Graham's been honest about his political affiliations (unlike many others in public life) and therefore I am able to evaluate his contributions with an awareness of his ideological leanings. We all have a political stance and Graham should be allowed to have his own.

However, I am disturbed at the way a Liberal brawl is being fought out in the press. Albrechtson and Bolt may be using their columns to further the interests of allies within the Liberal Party. Is this appropriate? Or is it a misuse of the power they have been given? Should journalists (sorry, I mean opinion-puffers) take sides in a factional brawl? Should they recommend who we should vote for? Should political parties reward their press cheerleaders with sinecures and seats on the board?

Forgive my cynicism, but could Graham's piece be another shot in the factional battle? That I think is the real question. Your thoughts, Graham?

I am reminded of Paul Keating's fond description of John Howard:

"What we have got is a dead carcass, swinging in the breeze, but nobody will cut it down to replace him."

Replace Bonsai? Who with?

The tap on Howard's shoulder yesterday became an insistent bashing, only the fact this is and has been a Howard government alone stopped him saying ok.
Yet a change could have worked may well have turned the polls more than some think.
Look away from Costello, he has past his use by date Liberals could do worse than some one like Minchin.
While he is not my leader in waiting he could at least call for a chance while targeting the Howard policy's that he knows hurt them, it was not me!
For some time in posts here I have predicted Howard will back down on workchoices.
It should not surprise those who both know he is a Menzies follower and it once was Bobs way of staying in power.
Howard will follow his mentor steal ALP policy's, finally admit workchoices went too far.
redraft it and much more, his overwhelming problem is few believe him anymore.
Can I invite the threads author to debate the last term of John Howard after the election?
I look forward to conservative Australia defending it lack of moral fiber.

the pro-Costello, anti-Howard campaign being run by some opinion columnist is extraordinary. It just goes to show what an insulated bubble both the government and the media live in if they think those columnists have that much clout.

Does anybody know anybody who makes their decisions based on what Andrew Bolt says? I don't.

I can't wait to see the back of Howard, but the situation we're seeing now is shameful. It's one thing for journalists to ask questions about the leadership, it's another altogether for them to be so directly involved.

Howard should never have given his favourite hacks all those cushy spots on boards. It didn't work as strategy in his culture wars, just gave them more opportunities to meddle in affairs where they have no business meddling.

Whether Howard stays at the realm or another fills his shoes will make no difference at the ballot box. I agree that it would be foolish to swap leaders at this stage given there is no real heir-apparent who is popular or acceptable to the electorate.

First and foremost it will be Coalition far right wing policies and deference to big business which will be their undoing - you can only fool some of the people some of the time. Now that there is the perception of a real alternative in the ALP, Liberals cannot hope to get away with it second time around.

Australia faces the impending disaster of wholesale abandonment of the Constitution.

With apparently relatively recently elected Labor governments in all States and Territories, and in the circumstances of a Federal Labor win at the upcoming elections, what will be to prevent a re-run of the like of the failed 1942 Commonwealth Powers legislative program of referral of State powers to the Commonwealth? See this link for a reference: http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=950#16904, and http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=950#16889

Election of a Rudd government would be a disaster.

This continual falling away from the Constitution is illustrated right at the moment with the Howard government's Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Democratic Plebiscites) Bill 2007, which flies in the face of the referendum result of 1988 in respect to the giving of recognition to local government in the Constitution. See current OLO discussion: http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=6343

Significantly, this latest intended departure will have the effect of enhancing the role of the Australian Electoral Commission, and its Central Office in particular, in the "democratic" life of the nation. One hell of a record it has! It was one of the parties that brought the court action that resulted in the gaoling of Pauline Hanson and David Etteridge, effectively for the "crime" of diverting public election funding away from the major political parties. It may be that it is responsible for much worse with respect to the electoral rolls. Make no mistake, it wants to run the whole show!

Return of the Howard government would be a disaster.

So it seems ordinary voting Australia is to be left with nothing but a choice between two evils at the upcoming elections. Could this dreadful Hobson's Choice have been deliberately engineered? More importantly, could there exist a realistic, achievable third option that is not so evil?

If there is, it seems there is but one man who could give us that choice in the time available. His name is Michael Jeffery, Governor-General of the Commonwealth of Australia.

Don't forget the Senate. The only way either major party won't believe in the idea of a mandate is to ensure there is a mix of Greens, Democrats and good independents in the Senate. At least then we will have some semblance of participatory democracy and some oversight, consultation and scrutiny of proposed legislation.

We don't ever want another party to assume a mandate to pass an inherently unfair set of laws like the misnamed WorkChoices ever again.

"Ginx said "whilst everyone is entitled to a point of view, I think it unfortunate that the MODERATOR of this site should express a leaning to either Left OR Right on his own forum." I'm not sure I entirely agree Ginx. Graham's been honest about his political affiliations (unlike many others in public life) and therefore I am able to evaluate his contributions with an awareness of his ideological leanings. We all have a political stance and Graham should be allowed to have his own." (Quote:JohnJ)

I understand you comment JJ; particularly your last line above.

However, I am not taking issue with political leanings, that's par for the course. I take issue with the expression of those leanings on a forum on which one as moderator has to be seen to be totally without bias.

I know that political leaning and bias ARE two different things, BUT I remain of the belief that to be an affective moderator ones own views should be entirely separate from their own forum. It remains the only way to avoid any conflict of interest....;in my view!

I have said elsewhere that OLO is a breath of fresh air for its capacity to treat members as adults;- unless they prove otherwise!!
Modding here is negligible thanks be.
It has been a discovery to find a site that does NOT have bias in moderating.

I hope I'm right about that; that's all

Ginx, if I wasn't a classical liberal, then you'd probably have much more interventionist moderation. I think it's my philosophical point of view, which is allied to my political views, that makes OLO possible.

In any event, moderation on this site is generally about flaming, or occassionally potential breaches of the law. Not much there of a political nature.

Back on Topic:-

It was interesting to hear Howard tonight answer a curly one from Kerry O'Brien on the 7.30 Report.

The gist of KO's question was that 'So PM, Australians will be voting for 2 Prime Ministers. (in reference to Rodents earlier statement about not lasting the full term and Costello taking over)

Some observations:

1. I can't see Howard sitting in the backbenches should he step down.
2. People in Bennelong will not want to vote again in a bi-election.
3. Costello will not wait for Howard to step down should they win - he will be very eager to take on the leadership ASAP.

How Labor campaigns directly to these and other frailties in Howard's integrity will be crucial.

Issues of policy will have an impact on the swinging vote, but never before has Howard had to face the electorate where his own personal virtues will be tested.

No amount of future speaking and promises of fixing - will curtail an electorate hell bent on change for the sake of it.

Howard cannot promise future prosperity on the basis of the past. Crystal ball politics are out. The real test will be how Howard speaks to the present and quite frankly he has very little room to move here at all.

Rainer,when you use logic and well phrased sentences as above,it enhances your persona and argument.Why not dispense with this angry bile and do this more often?

There you go Graham. Howard's survived the "coup" though it's hard to make a comeback when you haven't been anywhere.

Who was it who said?: "In war you can only be killed once, but in politics, you can be killed many times"

Now the voters will move in to efficiently assassinate Howard, come polling day. Had Costello replaced him, it would have taken the concentration off Mr McGoo. Bad move by the neo-cons!

The public will do doubt relish getting even with John for his hegemon and zero tolerance of dissenters, his zest for cultivating positions for his powerful friends and not least, his pathetic and destructive ecological engineering.

Perhaps it's the fifties revisited when the brilliant orator, Robert Menzies PM sold our uranium to the British and then happily allowed its return by surrendering our lands to radioactive desolation from the imperialists, detonating their atomic bombs on Australian soil where one seismic event recorded 1200 kilometres away in Southern Cross, WA and no discussion with cabinet or even parliament.

But we've all come of age since then haven't we, with the exception of the rock apes rattling their cages of course!

Howard and his shop-soiled team are more ready for evil than good, but perhaps voters will ensure that the Howard Inc. are about to run out of places to bury their dung.

The ALP truly understands John Howard is a very good politician, believe me he is.
He can at the drop of a hat straighten his small wee shoulders and look statesman like.
Some people fall for that.
But he is indeed past his use by date, I understand if elected the ALP will in time be replaced.
About ten years is my view before another conservative cabinet sits in Canberra.
However it may take 20! Costello can not swap his sneer for a smile, not in ten years.
Those tainted by AWB and so very much more are not leaders for the next election.
It is time for a new leader now, yes a pass the ball that has him/her washing the mud out of the eyes for weeks but much needed.
See as Howard plans to redraft, [is it a core promise] workchoices the next leader must say sorry we got it wrong.
Much the same will have to be said about the climate change denials, Iraq, so very much more.
The states and now the federal government is it not true this country, for a time is rejecting conservatives?

Howard should not be deposed he should face the people to be judged on his performance. It is he and his government you have been responsible for the hidden poverty, a loss of real income of 30% under Workchoices, he should stand to be responsible for what he has done. The voters will use a sinister weapon [to Howard] with which to pass his sentence.....
democracy.

The recent Labor Party inspired and Media led campaign to undermine Howard's leadership position within the Liberal Party and the electorate has backfired horribly. It effectively ended last night when O'Brian was reduced to self-ridicule and laughter when he tried to compare a Howard/Costello leadership tussle to the backstabbing vitrol of the Hawke/Keating fiasco.

All Rudd and his minnows have succeeded in doing with this strategy is to highlight the lack of depth in the opposition.

The Opposition wanted and tried to engineer a fight between Howard, Costello, Downer, Hockey, Abbott, Vaille, Turnbull, Nelson, Minchin, Brough et al. All they've succeded in doing is ensuring the electoral battle is to be Rudd vs Howard, Costello, Downer, Hockey, Abbott, Vaille, Turnbull, Nelson, Minchin, Brough et al. And that's a battle Rudd and the Labor Party will lose ... regardless of the overwhelming fawning and uncritical media support for Rudd.

Roll on November...and the poll that counts. And for the record I don't think Howard expressing his intention to retire will make one iota of difference to most people's vote and I think the Labor Party might need to pray (not in Lap dacing clubs) that the effect of Howard's expression of intention doesn't have too great a negative impact their on their 'vote'.

So Keith

How do you think the electorate will view Howard's sycophantic trade deals with Russia and China?

Russia, yesterday, detonated the "father of all bombs" and China's allegedly been hacking into the Australian government's computers to access military data and not yet a peep out of the Australian government.

Ordinary folk could well object to this nation doing deals with the devils who are bent on making this planet more uninhabitable.

Therefore, will Rudd the dud win government by default!

"And for the record I don't think Howard expressing his intention to retire will make one iota of difference to most people's vote....." (Quote:Keith)

Well you got that part right at least....

I saw Howard on the '7:30 Report' last night, and I now think he's committed political suicide - albeit in a strange and drawn out way.

His admission that he intends to resign as PM 'some time in the next 3 years' in the increasingly remote possibility that the Coalition wins the election, can only increase any ambivalence that swinging voters may have already held towards him. In effect, he's saying to the electorate that in the off-chance that he can win the election rather than Costello, they'll get Costello anyway a bit down the track. Given that the only reason Cabinet got behind him yesterday is that Costello's so on the nose with the electorate, I think this tactic will backfire bigtime.

It also edges the door a bit further open for Maxine McKew, who will now undoubtedly campaign on the likelihood that the Rodent will not only resign as PM if he and his government are re-elected, but he will retire from politics as well. Who'd vote for someone who's as good as said that he's going to quit if his electorate is silly enough to return him one last time?

That most excellent of possibilities - that not only will Howard's goverment lose at the election but also the Rodent will lose his seat - is looking more likely every day.

CJ,

Yes indeed, Maxine has been handed a valuable campaign weapon.
Using it with intelligence and cunning will be key. I hope the amature Labor party campaign strategists don't stuff it up.

Kieth, wash your mouth out with soap, the Labor party and especially its leader would never been seen alive in strip joints! Just ask em!

And this from our Arjay:

"Maxine McClueless is way out of her depth and was only put there to distract John Howard from the main game".

Posted by Arjay, Sunday, 4 March 2007 4:40:10 PM

Polls are showing she's a bloody big distraction Arjay. LOL

Graham, you are right. Therefore you are wrong.

You are right to say there is no one else as capable.

But you are wrong in saying therefore don't change.

Because this is Howard's fault, traceable way back to when he demanded of his colleagues, shape up as dyed-in-the-wool Yes-men, or ship out. All the people with integrity and ability shipped out leaving cowards and sycophants.

The sooner they get rid of him and start re-building, the sooner they will recover.

Be prepared Rainer,Beaver John will not relent.Maxine Mclueless will be relegated to the dust bin of obscurity while Beaver John will prevail.Guess what RAINER?;a beaver is a rodent.

ARJAY
according to the latest poll from Roy Morgan Research,Labor’s primary vote has reached its highest level since Kevin Rudd took over the leadership last year – 54%, a rise of 4.5 points – Support for Coalition has dropped 3.5 points to 36%. The two party preferred vote splits Labor’s way, 60.5% to 39.5%, a four point turnaround for both parties.

Your Rodent is trapped in the Rat Trap which has snapped down hard on his back. What was the bait? Hubris of course.