There's no doubt Howard will wait as long as he can in the hope the polls will turn around.

In this regard we can expect to see ever increasingly erratic attempts to find the wedge issue Howard needs and seeks with every ounce of his being.

There's absolutely no way that Costelloe would challenge before this election as he knows it is gone and he will not be the one to lead the defeat. Howard would never let it go anyway and has so much fear amongst his lackeys that they wouldn't dare make a move. They are resigned to having Howard lead and can only hope for another Tampa but even that has failed with the terrorist scare via Dr Haneef. He has said he is out of rabbits and he actually is. He's flapping in the breeze and becoming detached from reality in pursuit of his own ego driven ambition. Being himself and Pig Iron's record.

Back to the erratic spending as evidenced by the hospital in Tassie and many similar dabbles in areas looking for a wedge. Howard has lost that edge where it was much more subtle than he is now. He can't see that selective favours actually lose more votes than they win and is resorting to try and win one or two marginals as if that were some sort of win.

He blasted into the NT as if the world were ending. No wedge as Rudd just nodded and said yes.

How much have you heard of the NT problem since? Not much as it isn't the issue Howard thought it was. He's already forgotten it as he hasn't mentioned it once in weeks.

His focus is one thing and one is starting to think his mental faculties are waning to the point of senility. Don't over react. Just watch and listen to him. He has no interest in Australia. It's all about him. Listen.

Zero that is the Chance of Peter leading before the impending defeat.
Howard will indeed try anything , my minds eye has him at the feet of Bush arms around his legs begging for a fleet of rust bucket ships to sail from Indonesia about now.
I truly think both Bush and Howard would do it if they though they could get away with it.
That is why the election is lost Australia agrees with me.

Of all the absurdities in Australian politics, the prospect of Costello being PM has surely got to be the greatest.

NO ONE could be less appropriate for the job.

I watched Costello being interviewed recently as he circumvented questions of the interviewer,I realised he was really out of touch.With the ill planned IR reform and general insensitivity to ordinary folk doing it tough in times of an economic boom,I think they've blown it.

They are good economic managers but have not addressed the crisis in the rate of tarrif reduction that has destroyed both our manufacturing/ primary industries.Per working couple our balance of payments deficit is now $120,000.00 and growing,even with record sales of our natural resources.We are living beyond our means.IR reform is about keeping industry here so we eventually will pay our way.If we are going to compete with China/India,we will have to live like them.

No way Costello will lead the coalition to the election (barring accident/illness/death etc). The tide is already turning, so why bother with leadership challenges etc.

As for "wedges", it's not really a question of persuading rusted on Labor voters to swing Howard's way (after all he won very easily last time without them) but only of holding the base, and collecting first-timers. And last-time unemployed who are now at work. The media has fallen silent on the NT Aboriginal intervention because it's "working", but this success is still noted.

The Tasmanian Hospital issue is just another "eye-opener". It gives the undecided voter a chance to ponder why the various state Labor govts have been so lousy up to now at funding schools/hospitals/water infrastructure and the like. At the same time we get to see Howard surrounded by a number of Indian/Middle Eastern "looking" medicos cheering and shaking his hand in Devonport (Dr Haneef anyone?). This question of state inaction vs federal decisiveness might also make some reflect on why Bracks was defiant one day and gone the next!!

As far as I can see, Rudd has gone out much too early and much too hard. He's been trying to conserve his energy with the "me too" approach, but will be found wanting in the shadows of the post. Cheers.

Tip; Bet the Coalition before the odds start coming in. Cheers

punter

John Howard has thrown everything he can at Kevin Rudd, budget bribes, union bosses, IR fairness test, broadband, climate change, water, aboriginal welfare. etc.

All he has achieved is a .5% rise in primary vote and possibly a 2-3% increase in TPP. He is still looking at anihilation.

Rudd has kept his "powder dry" over the six week "long winter break" with parliament next week he has two weeks to examine the legislation not the spin.

All that Howard has left is the "blame the states" strategy. Not very wise given that the same people who voted in Labor Govts in the States 21 times in a row are now supposed to believe he can single handedly do a better job.

I hope you have lots of shirts, you will lose yours soon.