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Death by water : Comments
By Graham Young, published 9/7/2007Incumbency is a problem for John Howard. After 10 years in power he has upset everyone at least once.
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A few responses come to mind here, all of them pretty obvious, so I’m surprised you didn’t think of them before posting this, Graham.
First, the reason our states are being run by a bunch of no-hopers is that the state oppositions are worse. So you could just as easily be asking, “Why would we reinstate in Canberra the party that can’t even organise a chook raffle in the states?”
Second, you don’t have to dig deeply to find federal contributions to state blunders. The difficulties of state health and education departments can at least in part be explained by federal decisions. In particular, Peter Costello’s interventionist approach to state finances means that the feds can’t avoid some of the blame for the situation in the states.
Third, Arjay’s response implies that Australians are consciously strategic in their voting, with the intention of creating a balance in government. Sure, it’s possible to identify a periods when state and federal governments were formed by opposing parties, but I’m sceptical about claims of purposefulness here. That we gave the conservatives power in both houses seems like the most obvious argument against the view that we vote strategically to maintain balance.
Fourth, state Liberal Party branches are disturbingly close to the religious right, especially in NSW. Given the census results that show us becoming less religious, I can’t see what’s happening in the states as providing impetus for returning the federal government.
In short, I reckon we’ll probably decide this one on its federal merits. Far from being strategic, I think we’re most likely to take a look at both sides, and make a decision based on their offerings in this one particular election.