Nobody has mentioned the media's role in all this. While the media allows and indeed encourages Kevin Rudd to spout nonsense about "if we withdraw from Iraq we will no longer be a terrorist target" and "we must focus on Asia which is where we belong" - then we are headed for disaster in the form of a Labor government that does not even begin to understand the true nature of international relations.
We were a terrorist target long before we went into Iraq - simply because we are viewed as a geographically isolated Western nation - and for that reason we do not belong in Asia either.
I am sure that Asia is happy to do business with us but we are not, and never will be, part of the Asian "family". Once we acknowledge that our relationship with Asia will improve a thousand fold but they see us as guests, not relations.

There is a consistency to John Howard that underpins his career. His attitudes to things economic have not changed in any fundamental way in 25 years. Ditto with social issues, the man remains a conservative. Likewise foreign policy. For all his 'lies' and policy two-stepping, nobody can claim he is inconsistent in his core ideas. He convinced the authors "working class conservatives" that he shared their "aspirations", and their fears. Graeme then says that these same people now feel that he has "reneged on the deal".
"relaxed and comfortable" is one thing that no government can deliver in an open economy, with a floating dollar and rampant capitalism ala "private equity" firms.

Graeme states that Labor is more credible on climate change and the environment. I guess so, but am not too convinced. Kyoto? worthless symbolism. Carbon trading? More BS. The mother of all fear campaigns? You betcha!

I am dubious of all sides of oz politics on this, and am waiting for someone to embrace alternative energy ideas not from a position of fear but as a bold initiative for the future: for clean air, for economic advantage, and for an exciting future. There is a sense of drift right now that cries out for a new 'Snowy Mts scheme', namely a thumping great CSP project. Howard has failed us on this issue. Can only hope Rudd will come up with something concrete.

On the subject of lies, does nobody else remember the earnest discussions and thoughtful beard stroking of the Hawke/Keating years as bewildered supporters sought to understand the (then) latest backflip or about-face from their govt? Pages were devoted to this question and the consensus seemed to be that the backflip was in fact a sign of strength and character. These things are relative I guess.

With all due respect for Graham and his research, it is not we politically interested opinionators who will make the difference on polling day. The uninterested, uninformed and non-participating people in marginal seats will decide who governs here, and the circumstances in which they govern.

Most commenters here were araldited to one side or the other long before the polls went sour for Howard. As much as we all have our pet theories about what motivates voters and who should be running the place, and our pet issues, it's people who would rather have major surgery without anaesthetic than think about politics or governance who ultimately decide.

That's my pet theory. For today anyway.

The very fact that Howard refuses to take lessons from history - in fact, lately it seems he wants to print his own version of history - similar to GW Bush and his neo-Cons - makes one count him out for a start.

The most serious of course, his ability to not only disclose the state of our foreign debt, replaced by having Costello mesemerise us with the fortunate state of the Future Fund still much less than the foreign debt, but in all the ability to be not untruthful by holding back the truth.

Well, I guess just a typical politician, but though I've never voted for him, thought early in the piece he might be one politician that had a bit of Grace. My God with his spin and his evasions, how wrong I was.

Graham, thanks for the kick start.
WA has chronic problems with water and drought but it is nothing new and they are used to addressing the issue and adjusting to it(at least those who have lived there for awhile). The local newspaper is a great Howard supporter and makes The Australian look left wing.
Beazley made Howard look like a leader, so did Crean and eventually so did Latham.
Kev has a bit more going for him but they are both pretty ordinary in the face of what needs to be done.
The unions are no more an issue than big business which is percieved in the Howard mold of whatever it takes. Telstra, Qantas,Coles,James Hardie etc. are seen as Howards mates and they are not liked.Get over unions Graham.
In my opinion this election is about Howard. He has made it so because he micro manages everything and sticks himself into everything and wants to be on every screen 24/7. Also deep down I think his old ego wants this election to be about himself.
But of course Howard is his own worst enemy and he is now seen to want power for himself and not for the public good, despite his grating appeals to mateship and a fair go.
Bruce Haigh

I think the next Federal election will be very close.The electortate will be loathe to give our country wall to wall Labor both State and Federally.

I can't believe how naive the electorate are about green house gases.It will not make one iota of difference if we all become cave dwellers,live in poverty and have zero carbon emitions since China has decided that it will continue to pollute on a per capita basis until their living standards equal ours.No mention of restraint in terms of population control is even mentioned.It is just Peter Garrett rock populism with no intellectual rigor or substance.

Perhaps John Howard has been tricky once too often,however discipline and substance always outshines good intentions and chaos that our Labor Govts both Federally and State constantly dish up as rational policy.

If Labor wins with their present band of no talent wonders,I'll give them two terms at the most,before they self destruct.Malcolm Turnbull will then become our next prime Minister.

Next prediction? Hillary Clinton will be the first female US president.