Spot on. We're screwed -- I don't see anyway out of this unless there is some serious re organisation of the way we all live (and half has many people on the plant wouldn't go astray either). We are trapped in an end of our own making.

We can all reduce the demand for energy (drive a smaller car, walk more etc) but this will slow our economy and ultimately lower our living standards. This may not be a bad thing; it just depends on what we are prepared to give up.

If anyone's interested have a look at:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

or

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/index.php

charger, when did you notice things weren't going well?

Chris

You gristley old philosopher - good stuff!

A truly ugly scenario beautifully expressed Chris.

Thanks for pointing us towards some lovely light reading material Charger. http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

Hey now there’s an idea; let’s lease WA to China and all become rich little mongrels! http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/index.php

Oh... my poor head (:>0

Thanks Chris, analysis long overdue. I read the links to your other posts, I'm amazed, not surprised, that the media has not tried to grapple with the information you posted.
Have you any idea what the use is by the ADF?
Back to throwing stones perhaps?
I trust your partner is in better health for your care.
fluff

Once again, Chris links up two ideas we normally keep apart - economics and reality - and makes accepted wisdom look silly.

Well done you old scalliwag.

"Money measures the scope of dreams, but only energy can fulfil them."

Beautiful line Chris! The failure of economists to understand that things happen due to energy rather than money amazes and saddens me. Your piece shows the fallacy of the "we'll do something when the problem arises" syndrome. When the problems from oil depletion come, there will be little energy to do anything about them. All infrastructure project costs will skyrocket. We will indeed be chasing our shadows!

Important ideas, interestingly expressed. As someone with engineering and economics education, I am frustrated by the failure of economic policymakers to see the huge significance of the coming peak oil scenario and the inescapabability of physical laws of thermodynamics and entropy. Non-scientists expect science to produce miracles – to create something out of nothing. Science cannot do this.The supply of stored non-renewable energy on this earth is finite. As it runs down and gets more energy-expensive to access, everything in our physical world must change.

Of course, we should be using the precious time we still have, while non-renewable energy is still cheap, to use that energy to build the physical infrastructure we will soon need, if we are to live in a renewables-energy based world. When oil prices go through the roof, it will be immeasurably harder to find the spare resources to build arrays of solar reflector towers, wind-powered turbines, tidal power stations, etc. That’s why every year, every month, now counts.

I am not defeatist – we can still move to a renewable-energy based world which could maintain a decent shared living standard (though not the profligate living standard we “enjoy” now). But the longer we delay the physical engineering of that unavoidable transition, the harder it will be for our children to build or find the resources of concrete, steel, plastics etc to build those new infrastructures. The tragedy is that our children’s society may be too poor to build these things, when we could now so easily be doing it for them.

And Chris is right to say how we are criminally wasting much of the low-cost oil we still have, on competitive military consumption of energy and materials. We need a global approach based on the principle of common humanity – for we are all in this together. National sovereign-state competition to control diminishing resources of non-renewables will lead us inevitably in the end into a Mad Max world. of failed states and utter local anarchy. We don’t have a great deal of time to avoid descent into that kind of world

Yep, thanks for the commonsensical enlightenmemt, Chris, and thanks to his supporters so far.

Though going on 87, and losing one's thinking powers more than a bit, suddenly came up with an appropriate term for our present economy.

What came up was an old colonial one called the quarry economy, and could reckon it fits us Aussies now to a T.

Certainly without our fortunate pitstocks, after our wool and wheat and even meat has lost favour, the rocks and gravel that spoilt the look of our farm and station back paddocks, had may be given us too much indication of the wealth beneath.

As with most of the earlier goldmines with expensive infrastructure galore to handle the ore, etc, there was also talk in the pubs that when the gold ran out, all the structures would be pulled down and left to rot and rust.

Reckon we have been fortunate that our former low-grade pitstocks are now in such demand from China and India, and wonder if with China we are building up a political
economy for them, which as we dig, they modernise to such an extent we are left lacking in the very infastructural activity we helped them build.

So as regards the seemingly never-ending university study term The Changing Global Political Economy, such might place Australia on the economic downgrade, relying too much on very much expendable quarry economics.

Demos,

I started paying attention about 3 years ago and its been downhill ever since....

I can't see that our current crop of polies/business leaders have any notion of what's going on or much less what to do about it.

Don't worry - be happy. The american bible bashing right who (via George Bush, Tony Blair et al including our own Jahn) control just about everything in the world have it all worked out for us. Jesus is coming back and the energy crisis will be no more. Let the suicide bombers have their bevy of nubile virgins - we have Jesus!

One thing about quicksands is that your footprint is soon erased. Why do we get so upset? Our "civilisation" will decline and disappear, as so many have before. Why do we cling so desperately to the notion that somehow we have to survive? I have to admit that the appeal to the future of our grandchildren is a very powerful one. But relax everyone and get on with your lives - though watch out for the quicksand. Maybe man on this planet is not destined to prolong much longer (though in fact I have faith that our desperation and ingenuity in science will extend human supremacy for a long time), maybe other species will become dominant. Who cares? and if we do care, why?

Best piece of writing I have seen in a long time! Now, what are we all going to DO about it?

Crystal clear, concise, unarguable on nearly every point, great stuff Chris Shaw.
Do you think powerdown & relocalisation can 'make it all okay', assuming the electorate realised its real situation? I don't think the latter is impossible, theres lots to learn from the Rights success in pushing a few internally consistant messages and we shouldn't underestimate the importance of the volume and variety of bad information in the bad choices we continue to make.

fluff: haven't heard of any public examination of ADF fuel vulnerability, tho they would get priority, as would many larger businesses & of course government, under Liquid Fuels Emergency Act 1987.
Sohbet Karbuz has done some good work on US military, which of course is a much larger and busier beast.
http://energybulletin.net/29925.html
http://energybulletin.net/18056.html

Interesting comments, and the lack of controversy where in past would be flamed. Not sure what scope you meant K$vin by 'what to do', hope you've found online at least ROEOZ@yahoo.groups & www.aspo-australia.org.au, the latter (ASPO Aus.) have two events coming up and their submissions to Senate cmte. make interesting reading if interested.

Don't really think I belong here, but I'll have a go....
It's true we've been spoilt by cheap energy, meaning high yield energy returns for low production energy imputs. Can remember too well the repercussions in the 70's of quadrupled oil prices and the economic consequences. Not pretty.
We can say with certainty that we are into a period of uncertainty about future energy costs, and probably, definitely, a period of increasing energy costs. Whatever eventuates, we are confronted by demand for change. And change is happening. Solar, wind tidal,nuclear,hydro are all proven technological alternatives awaiting their chance to shine. Other technologies like 'hot rocks' and hydrogen beckon. The economics of these existing alternatives depend on improved processes and the escalating price of hydrocarbon energy. While its not economical now to go solar at home, the time is not too far off when it will be.
Managing the changes will be difficult but this has started already. We've been accustomed to governments feeding us energy from centralised grid systems, and any change to this will largely depend on us- the way we vote and the demand we create. I am forever amazed at how people disassociate themselves from their government and them turn around and squeal about how 'the guvments gotta do sumthink'.How many of us pay the premium for green electricity available to us already?
If in 5 years fuel prices have doubled and one way or another a carbon tax is levied, the economics of domestic solar, gas conversions and electric cars will be radically altered. Just as it will be for large scale wind and solar-thermal power generation. I don't know the current relative costs or costs in the future 5-10 years out, but the equation is, and will continue to move in favour of clean, green substitutes.
So keep up the clamour postees, it's working.

Continued
On another tack- money always was and always will be "a medium of exchange"; despite efforts by capitalists and lefties alike to abuse it, to varying levels of success over time. But it is still the tool by which we exchange the goods and services that we produce.
And the value we place on energy is pretty high judging by the noise. And its my guess that we will be willing to cough up quite a bit to stay on OLO; even if it means we'll be doing a lot of pedalling after the sun goes down.

I’ll defy local convention and resort to a level of optimism. Perhaps I am deluded and someone can set me straight.

When crude oil reaches US$45 a barrel or so, it becomes competitive to make diesel from coal. You can even use poor quality coal and capture some of the CO2 during the process, because the gasification of the coal produces CO2 gas in the mix. I have heard anecdotally that there are two Australian proposals in the pipeline. Sasol has been doing this for decades using technology developed in the early 20th century. There’s also natural gas to liquid processes, and we are not at the end of our gas reserves either.

If renewables are your focus, and I think this is the long term objective anyway, there is gasification of woody biomass, which is a mimic of the coal to liquid process, using wood instead of coal. More expensive than coal, but the Germans are building a large scale pilot plant now, or it might even be in production. I believe that this can produce diesel for about 0.5 euro per litre ex-refinery.

So I’m unconvinced that economics is unrelated to reality. These old technologies have just been waiting for the price of crude oil to increase and now they are starting to come into use

fyi's..
-
Extract from Hansard South Australian Parliament Tuesday 5 June 2007

Ms FOX (Bright)[Labor]: I rise today to speak on a matter which concerns me deeply and I did not know anything about it until very recently when I had a street corner meeting. A constitu­ent came to see me and he said, with great faith in his eyes, `I'm sure you know all about peak oil theory.' I beamed happily and said, `No, I have never heard of it.'

The Hon. M.J. Atkinson: What's that?

Ms FOX: Peak oil theory, and before anybody says, `Oh, this is not really important' or accuses me in a way that Mr Howard has accused Mr Garrett of being a fanatic, I point out that in February the Senate, via the Standing Committee on Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport, published a 218-page report on Australia's future oil supply and alterna­tive transport fuels. [PDF] That is because they are worried that we will run out of oil, and they should be worried because we are going to run out of oil. .."

http://www.energybulletin.net/30903.html

Thanks for that Liam. Just when I thought I couldn't be any more shocked by the sheer ignorance of our politicians. Its really sad that the people who represent us are so hopelessly out of touch, Lib or Lab.

energy depletion is a problem.

pollution is a problem.

over-population is a problem.

and there's those old standbys, war, famine, disease.

actually, not quite true. all of the above are merely symptoms of a single problem. this problem is human character. it may be an insoluble problem. human character was formed over thousands of years in response to a world which was effectively inexhaustible, wherein the only challenges were other animals, and neighboring clans of humans.

we saw off the animals with the invention of stone-tipped spears, the neighbors have remained a challenge. the challenge was managed by encouraging a high birth rate, and forming command oriented social structures. the baboons use much the same methods, for the same reasons.

unfortunately, baboon style social structures are becoming less survival oriented, as we fill the earth, and it no longer seems inexhaustible. so i urge people to change from submission to the alpha male of prime minister, or president, or general secretary, to responsible and self respecting members of democracy.

only democracy can filter out selfish special interests by involving the entire electorate in management of society. only democracy can prevent the welfare of the majority being sacrificed to the interests of the rich and/or well connected. the coming society of scarcity,of austerity (for most), may present the possibility of mass death. if human society is ruled by a few, those few may well feel that a population crash is a convenient solution to importunate cries for equitable sharing of resources.

life could get much more 'interesting' than ozzies have hitherto experienced. depending on the skill and character of politicians to guide the nation in the coming crises is probably the only way to guarantee disaster.

Once again, a brilliant and succinct article on the present state of affairs. Thank you Chris.

OLO is loaded with erudite, well read, intelligent people with a good handle on what is happening to our wonderful country and rapidly reducing quality of life. Where are the decision makers? Does no one in a position of power or decision making read this?

From the last post, thank you Liam, we can see the parlous state our governing body is in. What happened to the people with a breadth of knowledge, education, holistic view and a care for our country and their children. We are in deep doo doo and they haven't a clue. The blame for all this can be laid squarely at the feet of the ten or so families who run this country. Who else has the ear of the government or the persuasive ability to make the necessary changes outlined by tonykevin 1.

Surely there is someone out there who knows who to talk to and make them wake up!

Not sure if others are criticising Ms Fox (SA Member for Bright) for being only newly aquainted with the peak oil problem, anyway I don't myself. Its very easy to avoid thinking about real world nontrivial problems, theres whole industries dedicated to helping us serfs do so (sport, cinema, tv..) and enduring and merciless processes in political parties that make it unpopular and incompatible with being 'a team player'. Good on Ms Fox following her get-the-(new to her)-info-out instincts, i look forward to her future contributions.
Reminds me of Qld Member for Hervey Bay Andrew McNamara, a fellow traveller who got the Qld Oil Vulnerability Taskforce off the ground in 05(?).. has it released its report yet? (first promised i think for Oct 06).

Nice succinct article, Chris.

Here's a summary of some of the huge government grants handed out recently for solar research and development to major players in that field in the US:

http://www.nanosolar.com/cache/dawn.htm

I wonder how much money the Australian Government is putting into solar?

Within the next 10 years it will be commonplace to have buildings with their entire roofs covered with solar panels, and by the looks of it, sun-facing walls producing electricity too.

Imagine how much power the skyscrapers in Sydney could produce with translucent thin-film solar panels covering their windows. Couple this with LED lighting and you're laughing.