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The Forum > Article Comments > There’s not much future in predictions > Comments

There’s not much future in predictions : Comments

By Tom Quirk, published 1/12/2006

The Stern report is all very well but we simply can't forecast the impact on our climate in 100 years with any accuracy.

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Climate change is a certainty and a reality, it always was and always will be. There is not enough computing power yet, or more importantly enough data loggers and sensors to collect and process the information. The closing of so many temperature recording points, and the siting of so many at airports close to large metropolitan heat islands and surrounded by masses of concrete runways, motor vehicles, and jet engines, makes one question the data that has been used in the "computer models" we are being told by the climate wonkers is our future in 100 years. I'd be leaving that sort of forecast to the Jules Vernes of this world.

Richard42
Posted by richard42, Friday, 1 December 2006 10:23:27 AM
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So what the author is saying is we shouldn't do anything, we shouldn't plan for the future with the available data because we might find something out that will change it. Get real.

As for the above post, displaying your ignorance for all the world to is always funny. Much of the data used by scientist comes from states using remote sensors measuring sea surface temps with all sources lining up well. Do you really believe that the thousand of climate scientist wouldn’t understand the primary school physic’s?
Posted by Kenny, Friday, 1 December 2006 1:02:42 PM
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This seems a decidedly short sighted article, the idea that because we can not know with certainty the outcome of economic predictions does not mean that we should not plan for the future. At the very least the Stern report presents a plausible scenario that can and should be avoided. Besides predictions themselves have enormous power in that right or wrong they play a role in shaping policy. Tom Quirk seems to have missed the point that the predictions in the Stern report are not made in order to be proved right, rather they are produced using all the available data and best practice of economics to change the policy now and into the future so that these predictions do not come about.
Posted by ChrisS, Friday, 1 December 2006 2:44:06 PM
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But interesting the Stern report gets some basics wrong. There are a few more examples here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001714.html .
Posted by Jennifer, Friday, 1 December 2006 4:22:51 PM
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Just because we haven't managed to destroy the world yet doesn't mean it can't happen and a head in the sand policy does not seem wise.

Sure some of the long term discussions feel like lemmings arguing over whether it will take 12 or 13 seconds to fall to the bottom but the end result is the same.

Even on the off chance that all the scientists have blundered and the lemmings fall on a small ledge switching to renewables will make our cities cleaner and our politics less dependent on the middle east, russia and other energy suppliers.
Posted by gusi, Friday, 1 December 2006 6:45:53 PM
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You climate wonkers should go and have a look at some recent articles in www.sciencedaily.com dated Dec 1 2006 "Excess water vapour near cirrus clouds puzzles scientists" I quote " A number of researchers in recent years have reported perplexing findings of water vapour at concentrations as much as twice what they should be in and around cirrus clouds high in the atmosphere, a finding that could alter some conclusions about climate change"... "based on our current knowledge it shouldn't exist" says Marcia Baker a UofWashington Professor of Earth and Space sciences. She is one of six climate scientists who are authors of a Perspectives article in the Nov30 2006 edition of the Journal "Science". She goes on to say that current assumptions in their models may need "significant adjustment" if the recent findings are accurate. What these scientists are talking about are SVCs- low temperature thin and subvisible cirrus clouds that have a powerful impact on climate.

It has only recently (July 2002) been possible to measure and map atmospheric water vapour. NASA pioneered the research with high flying aircraft using an aircraft infrared absorbtion spectrometer

As those of us who have been in the computer industry know full well,
GIGO,garbage in garbage out. If you put assumptions into a computer modelling program, they can very easily lead you seriously astray. NASA has reported that the number of weather stations providing regular and reliable temperature measurements has fallen from 5000 in the 1960s to 2000 today. There are also few measurements taken at sea which comprises 71% of the earth's surface, the one good thing little Johnny Howard has done recently is to provide funding for disposable sea temperature sensor buoys. This is particularly important as there is an expecial dearth of data almost everywhere in the Southern Hemisphere. Lets all calm down, avoid taking fixed positions, and demanding "action" which might be very expensive and unneccessary, until the scientists really understand what is going on.
Richard42
Posted by richard42, Saturday, 2 December 2006 4:52:13 PM
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