Iraq is much "fable". Mussolini spoke for political leaders: “The extent of credulity which can be found in any man of whatever class or intelligence is quite extraordinary”; “lies always win against the truth”. Napoleon/Hitler went on to prove the point that denying there is a problem is often the same as lying; they may have been talking about Iraq.

Bob Johnston (ex-Governor of the RBA), Prof Ross Garnaut, Prof Ken Parry, Prof Richard Badham and Warren Reed on my book, which contains the following quotes: http://www.jeffschubert.com/

Heading to Paris in the winter of 1812, Napoleon denied he had a problem. He admitted that the Russian “venture failed”; he added that he “shall have the means to retrieve it”. In the presence of General Caulaincourt, Napoleon had a conversation with his ambassador to Warsaw, M. de Pradt and others, to convince them that things were OK. Cauliancourt wrote: “He told then that the army was still strong in numbers, with more than one hundred and fifty thousand men, which was hardly the truth.” He also told them that “before three months had elapsed he would have an army as strong as when he opened the campaign. His arsenals were full, he had all the essentials in equipment and troops to make a splendid army. From his private study in the Tuileries he could impose his will on Vienna and Berlin better than from army headquarters.” Caulaincourt soon “made notes of the strange conversation I had just heard”.

In early February 1943, Hitler met with a number of Nazi Party officials and spoke about “the events of the winter”, including Stalingrad. Below, his Luftwaffe adjutant, later wrote: “Hitler had designed it in such a way that none of his listeners would have the slightest hint of the catastrophic situation. It contained neither uncertainties nor expressions of disappointment. Without beating round the bush, he admitted the Russian successes and set out his programme for clearing up the mess. I was astonished at how this approach convinced them. … His audience left visibly happier and returned home full of enthusiasm for the fray.

Lapkin's attempt to discredit the estimate of Iraqui post-invasion casualties is similar to the neocon/right attempts to discredit global warming - bandy about the term 'psuedo science', obfuscate, attack methods often in a nit-picking way, but fail to come up with any independent data to replace the findings that are the subject of attack.

Whatever way you look at it, murder and mayhem now rule in large parts of Iraq, and the 'coalition of the (undoubtedly now much less) willing' and their puppet Iraqui government are powerless to stop it. The invasion has been a disaster for Iraq and for the invaders, and no amount of propaganda to discredit this study will hide that inescapable conclusion.

The curtain is starting to come down on the period where US voters were prepared to believe Bush and his neocon coterie. The Bush administration will now scramble to exit Iraq with a few shreds of dignity while probably leaving Iraq unstable and ungovernable for years to come, a breeding ground for Jihad, just the sort of thing the invasion was supposed to be about preventing.

Bush supporters including Howard should be hiding right now and for some time to come. They have completely bungled the 'war on terror' through the Iraq invasion, escalating, not reducing, future threats to countries like Australia from terrorists,

When it comes to problems in the world it seems that most people on this board support the opinion of

1. Put head in sand.
2. Put head in sand.
or
3. Put head in sand.

These were the same views championed by like minded idiots up until September the 2 1939.

They were heard to say
"Hitler is a good man he wants peace"
"Chamberlin and Curtin are war monger who want a war"

Some times you just have to act before the problem festers out of control. I mean if John George and Tony had not done anything and Iraq/Iran used a Nuke on either a western country or on another Arab state the first people to evoke criticism would be the same people who today label John Howard and George Bush war criminals. I can hear them saying "They should have stopped him back in 2001 when they had a chance"

You people are all cowards!

We are lucky to have brave leaders who are willing to do the right thing even if the loud whaa whaa squad complains every time we act in the best interest of the world.

Bushbred - Isreal has never said it wants to wipe Iran off the map. If it had any intention of using them it would have a long time ago.
If Iran gets them who knows where or in who's hands they may end up in.

For those interested in Steven E. Moore's qualities as a "political statistician" you might look here http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Steven_E._Moore . I'd therefore suggest Ted that before accusing others of "fanning the flames of partisan suspicion" you might remember that people in glass houses....

My apologies for an ad hominen attack on Moore, but I'm sure Ted won't mind. After all ad hominen is Ted's favorite debating strategy.

Response to Easytimes:

Don't you mean "they should have stopped him back in 1991 when they had a chance."

I'll go further: "They should have not backed him in the Iran-Iraq war or supplied chemical weapons during the 1980's." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq_War#Chemical_Weapons)

You seem to be keeping quiet on North Korea obtaining nuclear weapons? I feel you are trying to convince us that Kim Jong-il is a good man.

You have not mentioned Osama bin Laden? When you try to distract us with false Iraqi nuclear weapons claims, you give implicit cover and support for the Al-Qaeda terrorist network. You seem unaware that this group perpetrated the attack on the World Trade Centre in 2001.

Response to Fencepost:
"Garbage in - Garbage out". You are completely right. But the same applies to any statistic. You personally conclude the number is beyond credibility, but that is surely opinion. There is no suggestion that the inputs have been doctored, so until a group does a more exhaustive survey, this the only estimate of its type that exists and should be taken for what it is.

"By all means let us engage in a national debate on the wisdom of Australia policy in the Middle East. But we owe it to ourselves to ensure that our arguments are based on fact, rather than fable."

The entire war was based on fable rather than fact.
As to Australia's policy in the Mid East, it comes directly from the USA.
How many people have died in Iraq since the war and even prior with sanctions and bombing raids, I would think a lot.

As to why they aren't cheering their liberation? i don't know?

Peace everyone