Warwick, I don't know much about the supply/demand situation with SE Qld housing, but I have been watching what is happening with the urban fringes of Sydney. Sydney's property market is highly segmented at the moment, with inner and middle suburbs rising in price or holding their prices. Outer suburbs are less healthy for the property owners, with prices continuing to fall in many of these areas. It appears demand is soft for new house and land on Sydney's urban fringe. I believe it is similar in Melbourne.

How, then, does this fit with demands upon all state governments to release more land? How would this help in Sydney and Melbourne? Is the price softness on the urban fringes of these cities just a temporary slump in demand for such properties, or does the contrary strenght of inner and middle property suggest that demand is always stronger in such areas and therefore urban consolidation should be preferred over fringe land release?

I have held in other OLO threads that housing price and demand is not a simple matter of supply, given the plethora of government policies, state & federal, that influence both property investors and owner-occupiers. These policies are at least as influential as the quantum of urban fringe land available for housing.

I suspect that whenever there is discussion about real estate and what should be done for 'affordability' or the supply of residential land, the discussion is overshadowed by so many hidden agendas that real menaing and truth is very difficult to discover. Where it can be discovered, it is clear that the 'just release more land' approach, while necessary to some extent, is not a panacea for anything except some more private profit at public expense.

Warwick, what is the AHURI research about the location of employment that you referenced?

Warwick,

I will ask you the same question I asked of Andrew Bartlett over here: http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=4834#53620

In an article entitled "Owning a slice of the action" in the Courier Mail on 23 June, it was predicted by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland that in the next 10 years alone, average house prices would increase from the $365,000, already unreachable for many to the stratospheric figure of $800,000. In order to allow people to pay for this, financial institutions are planning to extend housing mortgage repayment periods to 40 years, or even 50 years.

The vision that the REIQ had for SEQ, as further revealed in the article, further included:

" ... we will be living on smaller blocks as more people move to the southeast corner. ... The current water crisis will mean nature's drop will be rare, ensuring most houses will have minimal lawns and garden. ... A session in entertainment rooms will replace the smell of fresh air and a potter around in the vegie patch. Besides most workers won't be bothered about gardening at the end of a long day at the office."

Is this the sort of future you want for South East Queensland?

If not, please tell us why you believe that the REIQ are wrong and how you believe it can be avoided if the planned growth in the population of SEQ continues.

Also, can you tell us how you think we can stop Morton Bay being lost as a result of being filled up with silt running off from the unprecedented level of building construction activity in SEQ?

I think the solution is three-pronged...

1) Open up land without taxes in regional centres and country towns, especially (for NSW) the Southern Tablelands and the Hunter.

2) Design all new suburbs along traditional norms... a suburb should have a main area of commerce with shop-front retail which encourages small buisness, schools, ovals and churches, to a height of about 3 stories (allows for a shop and house above, or for a mini-office)... then around them town-houses and divided houses which open onto the street... then traditional lots futher out. Local shops (enough for about 5-10 shops, and space for a few small buisnesses) should be positioned 10 minutes walk from one aother (making a walk to the shops only 10 minutes). No apartment towers. No skyscrapers. Traditional architecture would be best. For a suburb on this mould, see most North Shore suburbs of Sydney. For a more central location, invert the ration of town-houses and suburban homes, like seen in the suburbs between the True East of Sydney and the CBD. A suburb should be able to employ at least 50% of those living within it. The other 50% should commute to a central location... hence the need for a trainline to each suburban centre.

3. Create a genuine fast rail (unlike Victoria's recent installations) joining towns to cities, and towns to rural centres.

The problems are threefold...

1. Our states are too centralised.
2. New development is based around malls rather than local shops.
3. Urban consolidation destroys the social fabric and traditions of our cities. Skyscrapers are inhumane because we were not made to live in boxes, and the eye cannot rest aesthetically on anything above a height of 50 metres without it evoking a sense of detachment upon the beholder. That's why traditional European cities are so well loved. Also, modernist and post-modernist styles must be replaced by Australian vernacular, classical and romantic styles which made our cities great. We must acknowledge the last 60 years of architecture to be an unmittigated disaster.

THE ANSWERS ARE IN OUR TRADITION

One of the main problems with virtually every idea about releasing land for housing is transport.

The now almost standard low density housing regime is almost specifically designed so that public transport will not be useable. This is especially so in areas with large numbers of cul-de-sacs.

It is no accident that there is only one rail line in Sydney that doesn't run at a loss, and that is the Eastern Suburbs line, and one bus depot that makes a profit - that is the Waverley Depot. once again in the Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Of course the population in the Eastern suburbs has always recognised that high population densities can be liveable.

So, take your choice - large blocks of land and battleaxe developments with extremely poor transport, or community living close to jobs, shopping and community facilities.

In the meantime, if you choose to live on a block of land far bigger than you really need don't expect me and my ilk to subsidise you.

Hamlet, you say,
“In the meantime, if you choose to live on a block of land far bigger than you really need don't expect me and my ilk to subsidise you!”

Please elaborate, on what you mean. Housing shortage in not only in the City Areas where people flock to for all different reasons, possibly from responding to real-estate hype giving over inflated ideals of way of life. In the area where I live, that is Central Queensland, various difficulties arise.

A friend living in a coastal Retirement Flat, is often doing battle with his landlords, the RSL who are at present entertaining the idea of bulldozing a perfectly useful building to replace with up-market high-rise where their investment will triple, quadruple or more.

Then we have the mining town of Blackwater where rental housing is scarce to no-existent.
The once abundant caravan park space is reduced to donga company style quarters and the smaller park has been sold and 70 odd residents have been told to re-locate. I cannot see them all fitting on my half-acre block in nearby town so I am guessing the government officials will have to come up with a better solution.

http://www.cqnews.com.au/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3700289&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=

Going back in time to earlier this year, Council was jumping up and down as to numbers of residents in one three bedroom rental home. They said, Hessian was used to divide the beds Council claimed if you want to have more than 6 people per house, you must declare it as a boarding house.

Only improvement I have seen in that area is in a local shop you can buy solid room dividers. Seriously, if they want to keep their workers something will have to be done, and done quickly so as to keep these good workers in the town. Travelling back and forward to the coast or sleeping in cars in worse that in the days the park over flowed and spread out across the paddocks.