I agree with John that ethanol and other biofuels can play an important part in the future energy mix. Certainly ehtanol is not the answer to all the problems known to man, but John never said it was. I hope we can farm the cane sustainably and I hope the higher labour costs don’t significantly reduce the energy returned over energy invested ratio if the idea is tried in Australia. I’ve also heard that ethanol powered cars don’t run as well in cold climates as warm. Which is not a big issue in Brazil. I also agree that stabilising population would be a much bigger step towards sustainability, but John does not dispute that in his article.

I still have a lot more confidence in an idea that can produce 15 billion litres per year in one country than other ideas, that have yet to prove commercially and environmentally viable. That doesn’t mean shut the door on new ideas. We need them all, but let's give ethanol its due.

Thanks for taking part in the forum John. It is appreciated, but what is the story on the dark 1950’s black and white horror movie photo?

Could someone please supply us with some information regards our natural gas contract with China which was signed well before the oil crisis.

How much per litre are the Chinese paying?
Is the price indexed to reflect current market prices?
Can we elect to terminate the contract?
What are the penalities for us if we default?

I bet the bureaucrats have sold us short and virtually given our gas away.We will be soon paying 60c a litre for natural gas and I bet the Chinese will be paying close to 1c a litre.

Our Govt has become very silent on this supposedly whizz bang deal which has us obligated for decades.Why sell it so cheaply when we can simply supply our own needs and have a higher living standards.It could certainly reduce our balance of payments deficit.We only have enough for 50 yrs,so why flog it off cheaply?

When it comes to business,the Chinese just run rings around us,"The lazy stupid white trash of Asia."

John and others

Part One

The arguments on what constitutes a short-term-viable or long-term-sustainable solution to mankind's oil gluttony do not take sufficient account of the financial, ecological and lifestyle impact of whatever solution or combination of solutions are pursued.

In future, as we wean ourselves off oil/gas energy we will turn to many substitutes, such as biofuels and wider use of coal, solar, wind or nuclear powered electicity. Based on my research I discount hydrogen and water totally sources for cheaply and safely extracting energy.

We will never again experience a fuel that is as easy to obtain, as safe to transport and as simple to exploit as fossil oil.

Biofuel is possible only in a limited way. Think of the massive amounts of energy required today by modern and emerging societies. It must surely be apparent that the land requirements across tropical regions, replacing cropping land, pasture land or indigenous vegetation will cause major disruptions to ecologies and/or food supplies. Those hurdles will not be overcome without a great deal of tension.

The energy extracted from biofuels, relative to energy inputs, will be far less productive than our experience with cheap oil. Electrical energy can be cheap - but not as potent or as portable as oil
Less energy output will mean more cost per Kw. Inevitably this will lead to long term inflation , with Central Banks challenged to contain it.

Part Two

In the end, we will all have less fuel to do what we have become accustomed to and less money to spend on what we enjoy. Over time economic productivity will decline, unemployment will grow and new economic structures will emerge. One effect will be that, as we will not be able to travel as freely as we do today, we will become closer to local communities. In a similar effect, local food production will grow again too. We will no longer import Californian oranges and won't need to fear imported bananas. Of course, other countries will not be able to import Australian wine, beef or grain as the costs of ocean transport escalates. I would suggest that with the rising lost of natural gas, from which ammonia fertilers are made, we will be lucky to pay for the fertiliser we need in this denuded continent to grow grapes, beef and grain for local consumption.

The real question to me is not what will be a replacement to fossil oil, but how will society adapt to the ructions we face over the next 10-30 years, as our economies and lifestyles return to energy consumption patterns charcterised primarily by the low availability and higher cost of oil type fuels.

How will the overleveraged middle class cope with rising costs? How will our disadvanted lower class cope as unemployment cycles back up again? Never mind the technology, who is working on the economic models that will enable Australians or other western countries to maintain satisfactory living standards as the energy bell curve - steeper on this side of 'peak oil' - slides down again.

I am neither economist nor sociologist, however it seems no more than common sense that our economic, social and political leaders need to acknowledge openly that the cheap energy centuries are over and that the 21st century will be a period of change unlike what we and our recent ancestors experienced. Like global warming, the sooner we prepare, the better off we will be.