I think it is a bit over the top to say that the Greens were “big losers” in Gaven. Considering that that the non-major party vote went from 13% in 2004 to 20% in the by-election, a small slip in our primary vote is to be expected. Actually, we had a slight swing to us in the votes cast on the day, and would have made up most of the ground on absentee votes had it not been a by-election and so many enrolled voters did not vote.

I think the Spit was a non-issue in the campaign and had a net zero effect on the Green vote. We gained some votes on the issue from those who see the cruise ship issue as primarily an environmental one, and maybe lost some due to the National Party running pretty hard against us on our preferencing decision. The Greens poorest booths compared to 2004 were the stronger ALP booths where Daren Riley picked up most of the anti-major party vote and a few ALP voters probably swung back to Labor rather than giving first preference to the Greens due to the perception late in the campaign that the ALP might have had a chance of winning.

One of our best swings was at the North Helensvale booth which would normally be a strong Liberal booth. This suggests that we were considered as a good option for a Liberal protest vote. This would also explain our unusual preference flows.

The result in the 2006 general State Election demonstrates what a load of bollocks is written by so called experts.