I totally agree Peakro

So with this horrible scenario, especially the ever-more desperate state of the US to prop up its lifestyle, is the situation in Australia even grimmer than we or Kunstler make out?

Could it be that we are in very real danger of having our share of imported oil taken by more powerful players, and of being pressured to boost our exports of coal and uranium to the maximum level, at minimum prices, under the threat of larger players just coming and taking over if we don’t agree?

Even if we were to effect the transition to alternative energies relatively smoothly, would external forces continue to make life very hard for us?

Are we in immediate danger of having our imported oil being "taken away"? I would welcome such a development as it would be a great catalyst for change. Is it a horrible scenario - the beginning of the end of the carbon economy?

It really depends on too many contingencies to make the sort of predictions Kunstler indulges in. This is always the problem of prediction, it is easy to go spectacularly wrong.

Should we view the break down of the current world order as the end of the world, or an opportunity to push for change. I just totally disagree that peak oil is going to push us off the "oldavai cliff" and send us back to medieval feudalism.

The situation in Australia is not grim, we are geographically isolated from the worst trouble in the world, we have vast (in relation to our own population) untapped resources in the form of great insolation and wind regimes, a world class pool of knowledge about utilising these resources within our universities, low population densities, the largest area of organic agricultural production in the world (and steadily growing), huge potential to reinvigorate our regional areas with cutting edge biomass schemes that would promote the replanting of forests and diversification of our primary industries, etc, etc.

The problem is one of politics and entrenched vested interests, these are huge hurdles to overcome but they are not insurmountable. World events, expensive oil, and growing acceptance of climate change are beginning to conspire against the status-quo, welcome the developments and get active in promoting positive futures.

“Are we in immediate danger of having our imported oil being "taken away"? I would welcome such a development as it would be a great catalyst for change.”

I don’t think we are in immediate danger of this, but you never know what might happen when things get really desperate. A very sudden change like that would not be a good thing. We really need a slow weaning off of oil. A sudden change may bring about the new ‘equilibrium’ more quickly, but with a lot more pain….. and many more people falling by the wayside.

“Is it a horrible scenario - the beginning of the end of the carbon economy?”

No, not in itself. But management of the transition will have to be very tight…or the transition will have to be long and gentle. There are no good indications about governmental management. Just the opposite looks likely: a failure of governmental control and indeed of law and order per se. And there are strong indications that it is not going to be a gentle transition.

“It really depends on too many contingencies to make the sort of predictions Kunstler indulges in. This is always the problem of prediction, it is easy to go spectacularly wrong.”

Predictions are educated guesses. Just because there are many ‘contingencies’ doesn’t mean that the predictions are flawed. Kunstler is by no means alone in making these sorts of predictions. Anyway, we should very seriously consider the worst-case scenario.

“The situation in Australia is not grim.”

I think our situation IS grim, because we are so profoundly dependent on oil. Such a massive change is going to be required, and that cannot possibly happen without large-scale major disadvantage to many people. You list a whole lot of advantages that we have. Thank goodness for those, but the simple fact is that the economics of alternative energies completely don’t stack up to those of oil….. and that means massive societal disruption.

Good on you, Peakro, our bush newspaper The Countryman last week gave cover and front page all about Westralian grain and oilseed cockies being on a goldmine in twenty years time. Looking at Brazil right now, it might be so, especially with them pretty well on full reliance now on power alco and bio mass.

Might tell you back in the late 196o's early 70s when we became hit with grain quotas, many farmers in our Dalwallnu district spent thousands of pounds or dollars on shares in Graincol, our factory set-up becoming a full concern till our rotten Federal Government with its non-seeing future eyes, suggested we close it down.

We happen to be too old to gain by another oil shortage, Peakro, so if you are young enough don't believe that Big Biz or governemnts like John Howard's will help any farmer investment run by themselves alone.

From one who has done a lot of research in his retirement, the advice for smallholders especially, is to get together and go agrarian social, as we did during the Great Depression, for Big Biz will never help you only steer governments towards the corporates to take it from you.

They'd be already well into planning it, Peakro, and with any Jew Boys with them. Hasn't changed much really from the 1920s and thirties, Peakro, so look out, mate.

Finally, never believe that agrarianism is Commo', Peakro,
can be left or right, as proven when Stalin knocked off most of the Kulaks because they wanted to run their own farms as Lenin had promised them. So whatch out for bloody government promises, matey.

George C, WA - Bushbred

George

I’m right with you re: small-scale agrarian adaptation, bypassing ‘Big Biz’, and grain and oilseed becoming major high-profit biofuel crops.

But I think your timeframe of 20 years is a little long. We also need to realise that with a major switch from fossil fuels to biofuels, the costs are going to be very much greater and hence the whole economics very different. Nothing comes within a million miles of the incredibly cheap and potent energy package that liquid fossil fuels hold. Hence the need for small-scale localised operations.

The more fuel crops we grow, the less food we grow. This could go as far as essentially eliminating wheat and other food-crop exports and only growing enough for domestic consumption, with all other agricultural land turned over to biofuel production.

With other western countries doing the same, the millions of people that rely on these food sources could be hard-pressed for their very survival.

--

Ah Dalwallinu… my old botanical haunting ground of the 70s. One of the most amazingly biodiverse areas of the world. An incredible initiation for a young botanist. I picked up more than 100 unnamed species of Acacia in the WA wheatbelt and associated areas, the centre of diversity being in the Dalwallinu area. Most have been formally described now, one named after me. And yet the area is one of the most totally cleared landscapes in Australia. What a crying shame. Makes my heart ache.

A different perspective to your agricultural outlook….just coz I felt like expressing it. Nothing to do with the subject. But there you go!

Nice to make your aquaintance, Ludwig, specially as you know about our district's natural production - wildflowers. Crying shame really, to have so much clearing, the only uncleared country mostly left, is along railways and roadsides. When you drive north on a hill before you reach Wubin from Dally', is still said to be some of the most interesting wildflowers in the state.

Nothing to what was on some of our properties, Ludwig. Fact is, with the grandkids wanting to stay on the land we own a big stretch now. They are still using our joint name G&M Counsel and adding a Co.

Been retired now nearly 32 years, Ludwig. Still helped on the farm for a few years, in between playing golf and bowls. But my wife said I was hanging around the club bars too much - so she got me finishing my schooling - not that I drank that much, but liked the company.

Though was picked for a scholarship close to harvest time in 1933, had to leave school to drive a wagon team hauling bagged wheat. Looking back after all my studies during retirement, part of which is Honours in International Relations
based on the old Tea Economy in India and Sri-Lanka - now of course its the Oil Economy - it's been possibly the most interesting part of my life. Bloody changed me though, I guess from a know-all bush barstard into a bleeding heart. Though seeing my wife has always been a bit of a greenie as far as looking after the bush is concerned, as our friends tell me. Surely it must have been her.

Anyway, Ludwig, must have just about run out of Poster space - hope we can keep in touch.

George C, WA - Bushbred