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Book review: 'The Long Emergency' : Comments
By Peter McMahon, published 11/4/2006James Howard Kunstler, in his book 'The long Emergency', argues humanity needs to respond to declining oil stores - soon.
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I go along with Peter McMahon's comment "we need to construct new ways of interacting that place need over want, scientific evidence over ideology, and to develop an awareness that in this matter we sink or swim together". But, should such construction take place, what scenarios are reasonable, and in what time frame could they be implemented?
In the two centuries of industrialisation, oil - and fossil fuels generally - have enbabled world population to grow from one billion to six and a half; in spite of warfare, disease, and malnutrition. In about two generations from now, if present world population growth rate continues, the world will have about double the present - about 13 billion; although for various reasons demographers point to a peaking at maybe 9 billion.
Inexpensive fossil fuels - and particularly oil - have impacted tremendously on agriculture. They have mechanised it, provided artificial fertilisers, enhanced irrigation, and facilitated distribution of produce. They have not increased resources. Rather, they have enhnaced exploitation of resources which are being seen, increasingly obviously, to be finite.
Courtesy of inexpensive oil, not only have numbers been able to increase, but per-capita consumption is greater than it has ever been. Apart from the pressure upon inexpensive resources, the burden imposed upon the earth's biosphere by human wastes has never been so evident; for land, sea, atmosphere, climate.
Continuing availability of inexpensive energy for present, or increasing, human numbers is just as perilous as its cessation.
The best scenario for Australia (and the world, from which it can not be divorced) would be a steady-state economy and a stable population of a size which is in balance with the resources available.
It is unlikely to be given the nod by a government enmeshed in the fairly-land economics of growth forever, and a society unwilling to elect any other.