An excellent article Con

If enough Iraqi leaders and voters dissociate the movement towards democracy from the presence of Coalition (particularly US forces) then democratic government will have a chance of succeeding.

Clemons should not be surprised that voters, including Sunni’s vote in the hope that their concerns (eg. personal security) will be represented in government.

There must be a large body of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds who DO see the advantages of democracy as being preferable to “trible instincts” that pull Iraq towards civil war.

As the Shiites have the numbers they need to realise that they cannot “roll” the Sunnis simply because the Sunnis are in a minority. The Sunnis have powerful allies within Saudi Aribia and other states with inexhaustible amounts of money to either subsidise the insurgency or support Sunni political movements.

As you say an early withdrawal from Iraq may produce a “strongman”. Certainly I think the US would wish to install or encourage a form of government that was not free to become radically Islamic. The US would not wish to see an alliance between Iraq and Iran either. So, even if the US pulled out it would want an Iraq receptive to US interests.

I agree that “Turning points in history are not made instantly, nor by a spectacular event. They are made in a long hard building process.”

I think that while beating the terrorist in Iraq is a crucial objective for the US I don’t think it is pivotal in the “War on Terror”. I believe the “heartland” of terror threat is bin Laden and his senior partners. Many of whom are former middle class Saudi’s alienated by the “decadence” of the House of Saud. It could be that the main terror network is decentralised in Afghanistan, Pakistan and within Saudi Arabia itself.

COMMENTS PART 2

The Saudi common denominator, as revealed by 9/11, has been very much underestimated (almost wilfully so) – I won’t muddy the discussion by proposing why. So I think rolling up the Saudi terrorists (and associated Arabs) is the main game in conquering this terrorist outbreak.

Regarding an example to “rogue states” – unhappily North Korea will continue along its nasty nuclear path unhindered.

However my last points aside. I think democracy is the best vehicle for peace in Iraq and perhaps, one day, in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world. If any country could make this happen it’s the US and then many Americans and many more Iraqi's would not have died in vain.

I think you've argued the case for democracy clearly and strongly.

Pete
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com/

When democracy delivers power to Hamas, doesn't that undermine the claim that we must be pushing democracy at all costs?

DFXK

The Palestinian result is a victory for Democracy.

Hamas won an overwhelming victory. They've a majority. But there is also an opposition...an alternative. Hamas have a history of supporting not only a military attack on Israel but also they've built a network of social support for their people. They'd be aware of the reasons for their victory. It wasn't built on Palestinian's desire to destroy Irsael. It's based on Palestianian's appreciation of Hama's activities at ensuring their welfare, Palestinians desire to rid themselves of and to punish the criminality, corruption and nepotism of Arafat's Fatah... Also significant is a desire to see an end to the Israeli settlements in the West Bank. I expect a Hamas dominated Palestinian Government to attempt to improve the lot of the average Palestinian. If it does so in preference to sending bombers into Israel it will govern indefinitely. Fatah during Yarafat's reign showed little regard for Palestinians. It was centered on the interests of Fatah(Yarafat). Fatah will renew and re-invent itself and provide an alternative. It still has members of the calibre of Erakat and Ashrawi.
I expect an Hamas dominated Parliament to force the Israelis to not 'tear down that wall' but to move that land stealing wall.
Israel will teeter. It is no longer dealing with a corrupt despot and his cronies. It will look antoganistic if it does not accept the will of Palestinians and treats Hamas and Palestinians as it has in the past. The moment Isreal attempts suppression of Hamas, it's legitimate claims or attacks the Parliament of Palestine or members of that Parliament they will be roundly condemned by every democracy across the world...deservedly so...bombers or no bombers.

I'd expect a lessening of the bombers attacks. Why? Hamas won't want to upset it's electoral support base. That support base has already indicated it wants peaceful co-existance with Israel.

This could be the turning point for peace in the middle east and the watershed for democracy in the region. The US intervention in Iraq probably led the way.

Good luck to Hamas in Government.

Interesting and mostly well-balanced article this ... Until the last paragraph where Mr. George-Kotzabasis manages to lose himself in utter hyperbole.

"will turn the world of the terrorists and their state sponsors on its head" and "By defeating the insurgency in Iraq it will also defeat by proxy all other rogue states, as Libya has shown, and hasten the defeat of global terror"

Wow. A lot of very big calls there. Frankly, its hard to see Iraq becoming a Free and Fair democracy in less than 10 years, if indeed at all. So I doubt we're going to see anything positive coming out of there any time soon.

Secondly, sure Iraq being a democracy would piss off a lot of the terrorists - but Iraq is merely the current rallying point, Al Qaeda was carrying out terrorist attacks long before Dubbya was even in the White House.

Finally, and this point hardly even needs to be made, Iraq becoming a democracy will mean almost nothing to most of the despots out there. Why would the dictators of Russia, China, Pakistan, Cuba etc. etc. care one whit about Iraq? Iraq is a democracy created through US invasion, something unlikely to happen anywhere else in the near future - dictators only really get scared when they see popular uprisings, witness the fear in Russia after the recent 'Colour' Revolutions of the ex-Soviet Republics.

the hamas victory says one thing clearly. The palestinians voted for people they knew were killers. whether or not they do lots of charity work, the voters knew they were killers.

I would like to see all western aid stopped, they would soon realize thier mistake. I would also like to see absolutely noone talk to them (except of course their terrorist state sponsers in the arab world). After being ignored for four or three years, and starved due to thier stupidity and hubris, lets see if the voters would still pick a group of terrorists as their representatives.

"Oh they might get hurt". say the leftist idiots. listen, how can they expect our help and cooperation when a majority of the population vote for terrorists. We have to show how much we believe the terrorist way of change is unacceptable. We killed millions with sanctions on iraq, most of you lefties would love it if they were still dying. Don't tell me we can't get their attention, both for how much we supported them with aid, and how disgusting thier attitude towards terrorism is.

Whenever we say or imply that these people might be legitimate freedom fighters, "the israeli's oppress them", what you are really saying is, "there are times when you can go and blow up a bus full of children, and it is morrally acceptable". It never can be. If these hamas rednecks had any morals at all, they would attack the army, even if the odds were against them. Surely thier vaunted God would give them victory, oh, thats right, they stole our God, and totally misunderstood Him.