Peter,
How do you see the economic position of low income earners and pensioners in 2006? It is becoming increasingly costly in Australia to be poor, re accompying artice today from Julie Edwards.

Shonga, I support your position in your other post.

Yet I suggest that to expect a response from an 'Economic rationalist' to a member of the 'left behind' class is like waiting for an apology to the 'stolen generation'.

Economics linked with liberalism ideology is about making money, heaps of it, and if anyone gets left behind, well, its their fault and the church charities, like St Vincents and the Brotherhood of St Lawrence, can look after them.

I hope 2006 will be good for you , me and all other marginalised and poor. And hope that in 2007, an election year, changes can be made that will ameliorate the growing problem of the 'have n have nots'.

I doubt it though.

Coyote,
I have nothing against making money, just wish you and I had enough of the stuff to live on. Thank you for your support mate, we must stick together, or we are lost. 2007 you never know mate, we can hope for change, the question is will an ALP Government be any better for us, they are not making enough noise under Beazley.

With a bright economic outlook forecast, it should be possible to cater to the needs of ordinary people whoever is in power, I agree with you that our chances are increased under a Labor Government, however for that to be a real prospect, they need a leadership and policy change urgently.

Get off the System posters.

The system accomodates achievers, and let me tell you, if we cant make something for ourselves in Australia of all places, we are in trouble.

Dont think the government controls your hip pocket. you do.

Good Article.

Indeed, chaos factors will destroy any outlook we have, especially in the 5-10 year range.

House prices will not fall in Australia to critical levels, as john Howard knows the property market (and the majority of wealth for Australians)is at a knifes edge if things change, rates lift etc etc.

But it will be interesting to see the impact of the DEFINITE IRAN war.

come 2009, the ball will begin to roll for Australia again. Howard (Hopefully) will kickstart the property market with a new batch of incentives. A new world structure, wages increasing and mini sector booms will ensure the cycles keep as envisagad.

A question to the Author:

What do you think the impact of a terrorist attack on Australian Soil will do?

I fear that socially, which flows through economically, our backs will break and their will be revolt. The cronulla riots have alluded to what angry Australians do

Economically Jonson's article was sound. It is interesting that both Germany and Japan appear to be mounting an economic resurgence simultaneously with the election of a conservative government and the implementation of conservative fiscal policies respectively. It is also interesting that consumer sentiment in both countries is rising accordingly. Lower taxes and more vocational/ skilled training regimes are the key.

However I couldn't help but feel that some of the 'low probability events' he refers to are not that improbable and could well dampen the markets. A confrontation in Iran would be disasterous for oil prices, particularly as we see a resurgence of anti-American political sentiment in Central/ South America. Oil could possibly even break the $100USD a barrell mark!

Sorry Shonga and Coyote but you left yourselves wide open-I'd say the 'left behind' class you refer to has been left behind because of all the whinging you do. It seems every post you come up with on OLO contains a reference to your great class battle or 'marginalisation'. It seems to me you do a pretty good job of marginalising yourselves- if you can't make it in Australia you can't make it anywhere.

I can only say that if the maniac running Iran gets his act together this year who knows where we will be.

O for goodness sake. Everything looks rosy, so let business continue as normal. Let’s just keep on promoting economic growth and kidding ourselves that Australia’s resource boom will continue, despite our ever-sicker resource base, with an ever-greater demand being placed on it.

Peter Jonson is probably pretty close to right with his one-year forecast, notwithstanding possible large-scale effects from the wild cards that he mentions. But this message is just so terribly misleading in the slightly longer term. We desperately need to be preparing for the huge and massively disruptive resource crisis that peak oil will bring.

I don’t mean the actual peak in oil production, I mean the rising prices caused by the rapidly diverging demand and supply capability, as peak production approaches (or maybe we have already reached it). This is happening NOW! In all probability it won’t be very long at all before fuel prices rise to the point that they really start to change our whole economy and society.

Instead of worrying too much about how the economies of China, US, Japan and Europe might affect Australia, let’s worry about how to get through the forthcoming oil shock. This is a million times more important.

The LAST thing we need is more of the same economic approach for the next 12 months.

WRE,
You are wrong again as usual, we have been "left behind" by selfish, uncaring businesses like yours, who have no respect for their employees, in my case after a 21 year employment record which included more than 2 years worth of unpaid overtime. Making people like you richer, and people like me poorer, there was no "loyality" shown to me, of the type employees are expected to show their employer. This is why we are in the position we are in, blame your ilk, not ours, we keep our side of the bargain.

Still, we have not had the benefit of the paranoid ramblings of Khmer Rouge yet, so I guess we will wait for the possessor of all knowledge to arrive and set us straight, of course before he seeks medical care for his illness.

Hope there is a nice big tax cut for the parasites....

Shonga,

I sypmathise. You are right, businesses these days generally do not have loyalty for long term employees.

I wish it were different.

You cannot tell me though, in 21 years you did not at some point along the way realise that you were flogging a dead horse?

If you were not moving inside the organisation, or your pay wasnt, why stay?

You are certainly intelligent enough, so why not get out of your comfort zone and achieve your goals.

Just dont be narky at the system. It is a fruitless, pointless excercise. At least you know the parameters of the system and you can milk it for what its worth, and control your own destiny.

Best of luck, poeak oil is a problem, but until the price doubles from its current, it will not effect things as much as the doomsdayers say.

I wont tell you the progress made in fuel cells i am sure you all know, but the race is on in this climate to start churning out new energy. think of it as computers in the 1970's, and we know where we are headed. Conspiracy theorists say oil companies etc will stop progress, but now they are leading the charge in securing their product placement for the future.

Realist, you write; “peak oil is a problem, but until the price doubles from its current, it will not effect things as much as the doomsdayers say.”

How long do you think it will be before the price doubles? Not very long at all. Don’t you think that there are likely to be considerable consequences before it doubles? I can’t imagine things being just as they are now when it hits 2$/litre.

Those you call doomsdayers are realists, and those who ignore peak oil are doomsdayers.

Realist,
Thank you for your kind words, I have always given 100% plus some to my employer's. Sadly my 21 year last employer was the worst type there is, the reason I didn't leave was that I had been belittled in front of customers and staff, emotionally blackmailed with the sack, if I did not make the boss a cup of coffee, the boss knowing that I had a mortage to maintain, or I would lose everything I had worked so hard to achieve for my family. I was even psyically assulted by one of my Manager's untill I developed what Premier Gallop has, arond 15 years ago. I recovered from the first nervous breakdown, however couldn't recover from the second I had recently. Along with being made redundant, as the purchasing section in all Queensland branches was moved to Brisbane. I suffer from Chronic Major Depression, Generalised Anxiety Disorder, Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and Insommnia. A fairly high individual price for hard work, from where I sit. Especially when I was classed at a level below what I should have been classed at by the award, and as a result recieved $40 p.w. less than I should have been paid. Which is why I now speak out on behalf of those who are unable to speak for themselves, the exploited. I realise that some employer's are good people, however I have only met 2 in my lifetime, I am now 50, and started work at 14. I am very much in favor of workers and small business, although that does not come accross here.

Peter, talking as a farm director, it seems that these days with China on the economic up and up with finance available to purchase our iron ore and other pitstock resources, produce such as wheat and wool which were our mainstays not so long ago in real time, have lost their importance. As in the Roaring Twenties Big Biz is now ruling the roost in the shape of corporatism, now investing heavily in low wage areas such as China and India keeping the global economy on the cheap supply side, as well as keeping even our low wage earners reasonably happy with cheap clothing, etc, etc.

Again talking as a farm director, Peter, with our modern labour-saving equipment, we not only need less workers, but the country needs less farm owners, which unfortunately leaves less farm voters to have their say in the government to protect not only farm businesses but a farmer’s way of country life.

It seems that now in this crazy world of extreme market capitalism, when money is not so much being made from production, but from changing hands, country life has lost its flair. Also in farming properties closer to the cities there is despair with dairy farmers selling out and taking advantage of high land prices while their luck is in. Also many fruit growers are following the dairy farmers as bi-lateral trade dumps far cheaper imported fruit in shops not far from their boundaries.

The worry is that you as a top consultant, Peter, seem to take these present agricultural problems so lightly. I guess you must realise that our former Country Party. now the National Party, apart from in Queensland probably, is so close to the Howard government right now in policy, it has become a dead loss to the cockies. I guess you must know that Mark Vaile, now our Deputy Prime Minister, as a farmer’s rep’ is just a joke. Did you know that Mark was formerly not a farmer, but a real estate agent.

Part Two

Sounds like typical bush grizzling, Peter, but the truth is, that farmer’s sons these days are better off working for a big corporate than staying on the land. Farmer’s sons now inclined to stay on the land would be better off to follow their grand-dads and become agrarian socialists, forming boards, etc, to protect their own interests mainly because both our Liberal and our Labour governments have lost so much interest in the bush owing to lack of votes through a decreasing bush population. .

There is an old historical saying, Peter, that if you forget about the peasants as you guys and our government seem to be doing you could have a revolution on your hands.

It is not that farms are not producing well, Peter, wheat yields in good years breaking records even in marginal areas. But when you have a Prime Minister who seems to adore a US President who abuses a friendship by having allowed 80 billion dollars in farming subsidies over the next ten years mainly to gain the votes of the American mid-West, thus possibly even keeping the Republicans in for a third term, should put a strain on our US Aussie friendship just more than a little.

What we are asking Peter, as farmers, is that you give us a clearer regime of the future of farms that are not only suffering through bi-lateral trade dumping but also the dumping of grainstocks both from the EU as well as the USA. Just ask any grain farmer in South America, and we could certainly add South Korea, as proven in the last WTO conference.

George C. WA - Bushbred