The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
The Forum - On Line Opinion's article discussion area



Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Main Articles General

Sign In      Register

The Forum > Article Comments > Winning government from opposition: has Colin Barnett got a clue? > Comments

Winning government from opposition: has Colin Barnett got a clue? : Comments

By Peter Tucker, published 15/2/2005

Peter Tucker argues that governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them.

  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. All
Peter, your election theory, that a government loses rather than an opposition wins, is a mildly interesting riff, but it is superficial and lacks any explanatory value, although it is probably of some comfort to the federal Liberal Party at the moment.

If it is the case that we vote out a government simply on "a feeling that the government's time is up", then where does that "feeling" come from, if its not through an aggressive opposition "taking it up" to the government on issues of interest to the electorate and ensuring they get a run in the media?

But I guess the federal ALP agrees with your theory, in rejecting Julia Gillard as opposition leader because she is too "big, scary and hairy-chested". Kim Beazley is merely "big" and not scary for the Howard government at all. A weak opposition, that will never "win" government, is just what the Howard government likes best. Thanks for setting us straight on that one.
Posted by grace pettigrew, Tuesday, 15 February 2005 1:33:31 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Dear Grace, thanks for your comments.

I agree with what you say, to the extent that my article was superficial. The restraints of 800-1000 words means one can't cover everything in detail, and in addition I did not write the article as a scholarly exercise.

I stand by my main point, though, that governments loose rather than oppositions win elections, and I think history in Australia helps support my case.

You ask, where does the "feeling" that a government's time is up come from? Sure, an opposition doing its job has the key role in ensuring the voters get this message. It is exactly what I thought Barnett should have been doing: the government is on the nose and Barnett should have been campaigning on Labor's shortcomings.

I don't think oppositions should just sit around and wait for the election cycle to deliver them government and neither do I believe oppositions are powerless to force electoral change. But I do believe that opposition leaders often mis-judge what the voters want, which is someone they can have confidence in to manage the affairs of state, economic and social. Voters have a look at the premier they’ve got and think, “can we trust the other leader to keep things stable?”

The evidence is that voters do not want to get caught up in opposition grand visions. They are scared by them. The evidence is that voters are pragmatic and self-centred, and prefer, in political management anyway, evolution to revolution. That is what recent past elections indicate, and also what the polls tell us in WA following the Barnett canal announcement.

Again, thanks for the feedback and I appreciate your viewpoint.

Peter Tucker
Posted by Peter Tucker, Wednesday, 16 February 2005 12:12:33 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Peter, I did not mean that your article was superficial (I well appreciate the space contraints), but that the received wisdom about oppositions never winning is superficial. I say this because it only seems to apply to relatively recent elections, and only if you read the mindset of the electorate a certain way. For all the focus groups, demographic analyses and the like, it is not possible to "know" why voters vote the way they do, and that is why electoral politics is both so fascinating and annoying. People are so damned unpredictable, and tomorrow is always another day (in WA too)...but thanks for your courteous and thoughtful response, anyway.
Posted by grace pettigrew, Wednesday, 16 February 2005 3:52:07 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. All

About Us :: Search :: Discuss :: Feedback :: Legals :: Privacy