Timely article. National and regional power bases have never stopped shifting throughout history, and this situation is not about to change. There is rarely a single reason responsible for any individual 'decline and fall', more often an accumulation of imbalances that eventually undermines the entire edifice.

Previous empires had their own trajectories, but we are once again unable to learn the major lesson of history, which is that such power shifts are an inevitable occurrence. Affluence begets decadence - not specifically in the moral sense, but most certainly in the intellectual sense. It is as if power and control are a drug that affects the ability to see beyond one's own rhetoric - this was as true for the Roman and British Empires as it is now for the US.

However, I don't think it is constructive to point a finger at the leader, whoever he might be at the time, because the myopia is a national characteristic, not an individual one. Nor, I believe, is it appropriate to single out religious fervour as a major ingredient of the process, although it clearly is another example of how thinking can become muddied.

There is no immediate answer to the problem, of course, because it is simply impossible to argue colours with a blind man. Ask any US patriot, and they will tell you that the problem lies with the rest of the world - the Middle East for using their oil as an economic weapon, the Europeans for being such wusses, the Chinese for resisting exchange rate changes etc etc. This is followed by the opinion that if it wasn't for the steady hand of the US, the world would be in chaos.

The only role the rest of the world can adopt that might have some emollient effect is that of mediator, making it clear that while they do not support the US' aggression, whether fiscal or physical, they are willing to help them through this difficult phase. A bit like someone helping a friend come to terms with their alcoholism.

For another perspective on american global hegemony and the fate of nations who pay no attention to growing pressures on their resource base, see Jared Diamond, the author of the highly regarded "Guns, Germs and Steel", and his most recent book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed". The word "choose" in his title is noteworthy.

I agree with Pericles, you can't blame just George W. Bush. Possibly before he was re-elected Americans could say that they did not know what he was getting up to and never approved of it. But since his re-election we have to conclude that Americans generally approve of spending a lot of citizens and money in Iraq.

The attitude that "we know best" is deeply seated in a huge number of Americans, not just GWB. The rest of the world needs to be aware that the next US President may not be much different and make plans accordingly.

Blame George W Bush personally? Hardly, he is just a greedy draft-dodging frat-boy whose only travel outside american before his presidency was to Tijuana in Mexico, and who coasted into the white-house on his father's money and influence after conveniently "finding god".

You might also want to check out "empire of bases" ... http://www.risq.org/article267.html

I agree there Eric,
The last election in the US used electronic voting machines that did not leave a paper trail. Even cash registers leave a paper trail.

Those machines can be programmed to produce whatever result is required, and people have now statistically analysed exit poll data and compared it to election data results.

The result:- It is more than likely that Bush did not win. see…http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE501A.html

However Kerry has hardly raised the issue of whether or not the election was rigged. They all seem as crooked as each other.

Invest in gold.

TIM HAS GOT RELIGION...====> I quote "Invest in God"....... ???
oh... hang on.. "gold" :) sorry Tim, I was really hoping there.

Pericles !!!! You ARE still around. Good. Now.. I have to deliberately disagree with you or Grace will be on me like the proverbial pitbull... because when I agree, it means I'm 'softening you up' for a smuggled in bible verse.... :)

Ok.. very serious now. You have grasped the big picture with amazing accuracy. I would have made pretty much the same comments on it all.
So where does that leave me now ????? Lost for words.
No, that CAN'T be possible.... Ok..here it is. You have aptly described the ebb and flow of human history, and suggested no real alternative, which is fine due to your presuppositions, in fact its COMMENDABLE because there IS no altenative apart from .. 'uknowho' which leads me to one extra comment I'd make on the American scene.

Most empires DO get drunk with power and committ national hari kiri because of their blaze` over-indulgence in 'the flesh'. But now we are seeing an emergence of the evangelicals who are calling them to their foundations. Its a mixed picture, not all are calling in quite the same theological direction, but they are all calling the nation away from decadence. It was the opposite during the closing stages of the Roman and Byzantine era. The other factor in the decline of Empires is of course a world war which bankrupts them, and rising nationalism. External pressures and internal dissent.

Boaz

>>But now we are seeing an emergence of the evangelicals who are calling them to their foundations. Its a mixed picture, not all are calling in quite the same theological direction, but they are all calling the nation away from decadence.<<

Are you saying that the "religious right" - which is, I believe, what most would understand as "evangelicals" - opposes, rather than supports, the US worldview? That they are a force of protest and resistance when their government stomps blindly on the aspirations of people who happen not to be American?

I would have thought that they have shown themselves to be part of the problem, not of the solution.

PERICLES
What I'm saying, is that the religious/evangelical movement comprises a spectrum in itself, from 'ultra' fundamentalists to the more liberal mob. That there would be those who confuse 'biblical Christianity' with 'American identity/culture and manifest destiny' is unavoidable. Then, there would be (are) those like Tony Campolo, who would be more likely to heap scorn on the 'america is right because of might' idea. In general, I observe that the overall momentum is one of support for the spreading of 'freedom' US style.
The goal is noble, the reality may be marred by the involvement of the lurking black hand of the multi-nationals and the Jewish lobby in the political process.

Umm which people are having their aspirations stomped on ? Iraq ? come now. If u do mean that, u should be saying the "Aspirations of the Sunni minority who are fearful of losing their previously entrenched privileges"

P, why are u speaking about 'solution/problem' now ? I would have thought that based on your last very insightful post about how empires ebb and flow, that you would not see such a thing in those terms.

Boaz, you ask >>why are u speaking about 'solution/problem' now ?<<

You are right, this was a careless simplification on my part. We are discussing a book-length issue, and contribute only sound-bites.

This was shorthand for a chapter entitled "As a society diminishes in moral leadership, what internal forces are in play." Intellectual corruption starts with the belief that "our way is the only way", and in this the US mirrors uncannily the late-Victorian attitudes of the British. This "problem" permeates society, and is self-perpetuating. Although the "solution" - humility mixed with a willingness to adjust ones aspiratiions in the face of inevitable decline - doesn't change the outcome, it would prevent enormous pain along the way. My concern here is that by flailing around in denial of their inevitable marginalization as we progress through this century, the US will cause severe damage to others. Or perhaps that should be, continue to cause severe damage.

It was in this context that I made the comment that the "evangelicals" appear to be exacerbating the issue. In their armoury are some powerful messages on the importance of humility, and the essential duty to love ones fellow man. They appear instead to be concentrating on the strictures that apply to "our religion, or no religion".

As for "whose aspirations", the force of this is "anybody else's", rather than pick one particular faction in one particular country at one particular time. After all, as we saw with their adventure in Afghanistan, and the cavalier way they have picked sides between Iran and Iraq over the years, the only notable characteristic in which they are consistent is their expediency.

This is all observed, by the way, more in sadness than in anger. I have lived and worked in the US in the past, and I know them to be at heart a warm and generous people.

Pericles
"Amen" to pretty much all of that.

What kind of work did u do in the States ?

Pericles Americans are generally a warm caring people.

And those who show the most compassion tend to be the evangelicals in the so called red states where GWB has large support base.

Check out http://www.catalogueforphilanthropy.org/cfp/db/generosity.php?year=2004

It shows the top ten most generous states are all red while nine out of the bottom ten are blue.

Pericles
I note your comment about 'our way is the only way'= moral corruption. But I don't agree completely. It has an element of truth though. I think all political parties have this view, thats why they get elected, because of their 'way'.
It becomes a problem when there are no checks and balances, i.e. totalitarianism.
With this in mind, may I urge further consideration to the nature of the calling to be 'Christs-one'.. it is 2 fold, to be Salt (to preserve against decay) and Light (to show the way). The Christian role is Biblically more one of the prophetic call to justice than to form a government. It is to call any government to do right. I glance at the preaching of John the Baptist is most instructive in this regard.

~~~

10“What should we do then?” the crowd asked.

11John answered, “The man with two tunics should share with him who has none, and the one who has food should do the same.”

12Tax collectors also came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

13“Don't collect any more than you are required to,” he told

them. 14Then some soldiers asked him, “And what should we do?”

He replied, “Don't extort money and don't accuse people falsely–be content with your pay.”

~~~

This is the nature of the kingdom of God. when God 'rules', so does Justice.

This is the kind of background which underpins the 'warm heartedness' u detect in Americans I feel.


SUSPECT. I note your comments. While watching News this morning, I saw that Green groups now are seeking to form alliances with Evangelicals because of their increasing outspokenness on the Environment, (preserving it, not wrecking it). I'm so glad, but a little regretful that we didn't make our voice heard much earlier.

Paul Kelly editor of “The Australian” newspaper - predicts that the present war on terror, will be a long-running one. He also predicts that Western nations such as Australia face the prospect of an exceedingly difficult challenge, a challenge with the military only playing a supporting role

Paul Kelly cites David Kilcullen, keynote speaker last weekend on the theme of “War and Conflict in the 21st Century.” Kilcullen, who has only recently returned from the US as a special adviser on counter-terrorism, believes the US is in a dilemma. It must maintain military superiority to contain the rise of problem states, yet the core threat America faces, apparently needs far more strong intellectual understanding.
.
Kilcullen’s diagnosis is that two epic trends drive the new warfare, neo-liberal globalisation and US imperialist military dominance.

. Globalisation and the return of the 19th century free-market, has created the already, well-known term, blowback. G8 protestors, environmental extremists, and narco-insurgents, opposing the American neo-liberal model, yet the model disrupting all their lives in different ways - the extreme of the protestors ready to fight the US and its allies where the massive military combination is weak, in the combination’s own lodgings and in its own streets by the use of increasingly successful suicide bombing..

Suicidal warfare as being played now by the Muslims, is cheap, difficult to counter and often effective - as also agreed upon by Keith Suter, who in an Online essay not long ago, cited the successful suicide attacks by the Tamil Tigers, which caused a worried Sri-Lankan government to grant them independence. Also the Americans were forced to remove their troops from Lebanon after more than 250 American marines were killed in one suicide-actuated explosion. Many other examples can be cited, the more recent one in Spain, causing Spain to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Kilcullen’s three-point victory programme is daunting to the extreme. A need for a road map to guide democratic societies under assault. However, the debate post-London is so marked by community revulsion, there is still yet a profound strategic uncertainty.