Peter, most of the electoral analyses I have seen to date would support your line that Gallop may well lose this election. However, there are two major and probably unique factors operating against the WA ALP government which I think you have either failed to mention, or underestimated.

The first is the lack of media diversity in WA. Whenever I visit Perth I am struck by the poor quality of the local tabloid newspaper and its deeply conservative reportage and editorials. Anyone who wants more substantial daily fare, is forced over to the Australian newspaper, where the editorial line is equally if not more conservative. How the ALP government got elected in the first place, with such powerful opinion ranged against it, is amazing in itself.

Secondly, you mention but make no mileage out of the electoral malapportionment in WA, and how it stacks up against the ALP. This is a disgrace to the nation, where rural (mostly conservative) votes in WA are worth some nine(?) times more than a metropolitan vote. What century is this? My recollection is that Gallop tried to do something about it while he was in opposition, taking a case to the High Court, but lost on the basis that electoral malapportionment is not unconstitutional, but a matter for the local legislature. Well, the legislature should have done something about this a long time ago, although I understand that because the ALP lost control of the upper house early in its term its bill to change the system was defeated. If the ALP loses this time, will it be another century before electoral democracy finds a home in WA?

Correction to the above post, it was McGinty, not Gallop, who took the case to the High Court...