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The Forum > Article Comments > Why Crisafulli should study Borbidge govt, not Newman government > Comments

Why Crisafulli should study Borbidge govt, not Newman government : Comments

By Graham Young, published 10/2/2026

Queensland history offers a warning: competent one-term governments still lose. Borbidge shows how silence, One Nation, and misread voters can undo reform—unless Crisafulli learns the right lesson.

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Since AI is now smarter than most humans, I posed it a question based on the article.

?Q:is it correct to say then, one nation may have a greater impact on elections than expected?

Based on the current political landscape in early 2026, it is highly accurate to say that One Nation is positioned to have a significantly greater impact than many observers originally predicted.

While many viewed the party as a spent force in recent years, current polling and the specific mechanics of the Australian electoral system have created a "perfect storm" for their influence.

1. The "Double-Digit" Surge
Recent polling (such as the Redbridge data mentioned in your text) indicates that One Nation’s primary vote has surged, in some regions exceeding 25%.
The Federal Impact: At these levels, they are no longer just a "protest vote" but a major block that can strip enough primary votes from the LNP and Labor to force seats into unpredictable preference counts.
The State Impact: In Queensland, where their support is traditionally strongest, they are currently polling at levels not seen since their 1998 peak.

2. The Return of the "Howard Battler" Problem
The text you shared makes a crucial point: Immigration has become the primary driver for One Nation support in 2026.
Because the major parties are seen as failing to link high immigration to the housing crisis and infrastructure strain, One Nation is capturing "mainstream" voters who feel economically squeezed.
Unlike 1998, when the party was driven largely by race and rural grievances, the 2026 surge is being fueled by cost-of-living and housing affordability, which broadens their reach into the suburbs.

Cont.,
.
Posted by diver dan, Tuesday, 10 February 2026 8:05:25 AM
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Cont.,

3. The Preference "Kingmaker" Role
Even if One Nation doesn't win a large number of seats outright (due to the difficulty of winning a majority in a single electorate), they dictate who does.
Optional Preferential Voting (OPV): In Queensland, many voters "Just Vote 1." If 20% of the electorate votes for One Nation and doesn't provide preferences, the "exhausted" votes lower the quota needed for someone else to win, often leading to "accidental" winners.
The Toxicity Trap: If David Crisafulli (LNP) courts One Nation preferences to win, he risks losing moderate "Teal-style" voters in the cities. If he ignores them, he risks losing the seats entirely
Posted by diver dan, Tuesday, 10 February 2026 8:05:31 AM
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Has the Crisafulli administration made any move to phase out Woke indoctrination in schools & put Labor biased teachers on notice ?
Posted by Indyvidual, Tuesday, 10 February 2026 12:53:35 PM
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Indyvidual

#… Has the Crisafulli administration made any move to phase out Woke indoctrination in schools & put Labor biased teachers on notice ?…#

These are the niggling issues that annoy the voters; but as AI above points out beautifully, the major parties a jammed between a rock and a hard place trying to appease everybody across the political spectrum. It’s what Hanson has meticulously avoided by narrowing her interests, major parties can’t do that successfully, because it means a major reset to their age-old cult.

They either cave in to everybody’s interests, and become what they are, effectively useless to anyone but their own interests, or they simply use tax payers funds to buy them off: What is a vote worth in dollar terms.
Dictatorships work because the people’s choice is scrubbed out.

The alternative to dictatorship is what we have with Albanese; dictatorship-light.(Authoritarianism).

Hope I haven’t bored you Indyvidual, with what you and most others recognise instinctively
Posted by diver dan, Tuesday, 10 February 2026 1:30:30 PM
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