Since AI is now smarter than most humans, I posed it a question based on the article.

?Q:is it correct to say then, one nation may have a greater impact on elections than expected?

Based on the current political landscape in early 2026, it is highly accurate to say that One Nation is positioned to have a significantly greater impact than many observers originally predicted.

While many viewed the party as a spent force in recent years, current polling and the specific mechanics of the Australian electoral system have created a "perfect storm" for their influence.

1. The "Double-Digit" Surge
Recent polling (such as the Redbridge data mentioned in your text) indicates that One Nation’s primary vote has surged, in some regions exceeding 25%.
The Federal Impact: At these levels, they are no longer just a "protest vote" but a major block that can strip enough primary votes from the LNP and Labor to force seats into unpredictable preference counts.
The State Impact: In Queensland, where their support is traditionally strongest, they are currently polling at levels not seen since their 1998 peak.

2. The Return of the "Howard Battler" Problem
The text you shared makes a crucial point: Immigration has become the primary driver for One Nation support in 2026.
Because the major parties are seen as failing to link high immigration to the housing crisis and infrastructure strain, One Nation is capturing "mainstream" voters who feel economically squeezed.
Unlike 1998, when the party was driven largely by race and rural grievances, the 2026 surge is being fueled by cost-of-living and housing affordability, which broadens their reach into the suburbs.

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3. The Preference "Kingmaker" Role
Even if One Nation doesn't win a large number of seats outright (due to the difficulty of winning a majority in a single electorate), they dictate who does.
Optional Preferential Voting (OPV): In Queensland, many voters "Just Vote 1." If 20% of the electorate votes for One Nation and doesn't provide preferences, the "exhausted" votes lower the quota needed for someone else to win, often leading to "accidental" winners.
The Toxicity Trap: If David Crisafulli (LNP) courts One Nation preferences to win, he risks losing moderate "Teal-style" voters in the cities. If he ignores them, he risks losing the seats entirely