Yes, another US-backed regime change which, as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Ukraine, will not end well.

The US has been gunning for Assad's overthrow for many years and has never minded how many terrorists it's supported in the process. With Israel's aggression stretching Iran's defences and NATO and Ukraine stretching Russia's, Biden has grabbed a last ditch opportunity to shore up his flailing empire's global hegemony and its access to the Middle East's resources and trade routes.

Thank goodness Biden's days in power are coming to an end. Surely, he can't do any more damage in that short time. Can he?

It is noticeable with Binoy’s articles that the weaker his logic, the more sneering and condescending adjectives and adverbs he uses, and the more he relies on straw man arguments to make his case.

He says “we read or hear almost nothing about the dominant backers in this latest round of bloodletting”. But the ABC, The Australian, the Guardian and every other news outlet I’ve seen details the fact that Russia, Iran, Turkey and the USA each has a stake in the conflict and has backed major players.

Binoy says “A fascinating omission in much commentary on these advances is Turkey's outsized role”.

This is from the ABS’s website 2 days ago:

“Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometer- (566-mile-) long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

“While Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement, observers believe that the offensive, which appears to be aligned with Turkey’s long-time goals, could not have gone ahead without Ankara’s consent.”

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-stands-opposition-insurgents-advance-neighboring-syria-116521680

He also says that HTS is not a new organisation. Quite so. But no-one has suggested otherwise. What took most analysts by surprise was not the organisation’s existence or objectives but that it capitalised so quickly and successfully on the fact that Russia and Iran are both heavily distracted and the Assad regime’s Hezbollah supporters are profoundly weakened.

This is perhaps the most despicable part of Binoy’s article:

“Then there are the untold consequences of a Syria free of Assad, a fate longed for by the coarsened righteous in Western circles …”

The Assad regime is/was one of the most vile in the world, having killed hundreds of thousands in its efforts to retain power. The future for Syria may not look particularly bright. But if it ever is to have a better future, it must surely be without Assad. Count me a one the “coarsened righteous”.

Good post Rhian! Right on the money.

Its fascinating how often people blame their own lack of knowledge on the media not handing them everything they want to hear (or more precisely, everything they want to believe) all wrapped up in a nice bow.

Assad was a vicious murderous dictator and his passing surely can't be lamented, although the Russophiles in our midst will definitely do so - the friend of my friend thinking dominates in some circles.

Its is possible, even likely, that he'll be replaced by someone or some group that is just as vile, just as murderous. That's the nature of Middle Eastern politics. OTOH it might turn out that Abu Mohammad al-Julani is a man of honour and ability. Surely, eventually, the mohammedan nations have to turn up at least one bloke who has the interests of the nation and its people at heart, rather than tribal politics and their 72 virgins.

" another US-backed regime change "

Honestly, no matter what happens in the world, for some its always the US' fault. Seriously, if I started a thread on the extinction of the dinosaur, we'd eventually get to some point where someone would blame it on Uncle Sam.

I second Mhaze in supporting Rhian.

I see this as a great opportunity for peace between Israel and Syria, something that was not possible for over 76 years.

But alas, while the Syrian dictator is gone, will the present Israeli dictator allow it?

All I've got is a declassified CIA analysis of 10 December 2024:

It looks like NATO and Israeli intelligence agencies have their work cut out clarifying what is happening to the Russian bases and what deals Russia is making with Turkey’s ambitious President Erdoğan [1]. The agencies need all sources and methods: informants in the region, SigInt and satellite imagery.

Turkey’s apparent power over Syria’s new Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime gives Turkey considerable power and latitude. Turkish forces have invaded large parts of northern Syria without HTS resistance (or US complaints?) – in order for Turkey to destroy the Kurds to the extent possible.

HTS’s advance south from Aleppo was so rapid and efficient it is reminiscent of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS‘s) conquest of large parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014 [2]. At worst ISIS elements might be the real power behind HTS.

Like the Arab Spring in 2011 any optimism that the Sunni Jihadist HTS takeover of Syria will bring lasting peace and Western style democracy should be tempered by reality. The Sunni (74% of Syria’s population [3]) HTS regime are liable to round up and eventually kill many of the Shiites (13%) who dominated ex-President Assad’s [4] old regime. Also the 300,000+ Syrian Christians are under threat. The Shiites and Christians may be trying to escape over borders in large numbers.

Generally a bleak picture. One hopes HTS might surprise with continuing moderation. But we shouldn’t bank on it.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Syria see right sidebar

[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad