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Will Albanese walk in the footsteps of Whitlam? : Comments
By Graham Young, published 1/3/2023So all the conditions for stagflation - rapidly increasing government expenditure, skyrocketing energy prices, an inflexible economy, and low productivity growth - are in place as they were for Whitlam, coupled with similarly ambitious social policies.
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The Australia Institute’s analysis compares profits with December 2019, just before the pandemic, which seems to me a reasonable starting point. The AI used national accounts data to September 2022 (the latest then available) so the numbers are a little different to the ones in the business indicators survey, but the pattern is similar.
According to the ABS data, between the December quarters of 2019 and 2022 (seasonally adjusted):
Mining profits rose by 126%, to $65 billion
Total profits rose by 76%, to $119 billion
So non-mining profits rose by 39%, to $55 billion, and mining accounted for more than half of all corporate profits during the quarter.
Over the same period:
Mining sales of goods and services rose by 69%, to $131 billion
Total sales of goods and services rose by 28%, to $948 billion
So non-mining sales of goods and services rose by 23%, to $817 billion
In December 2022
Mining profits were 48.3% of sales, compared to 37% in December 2019
Total profits were 12.6% of sales, compared to 9.2% in December 2019
Non-mining profits were 6.7% of sales compared to 5.9% in December 2019
So yes, there was a small increase in non-mining profit margins, but this measure is quite volatile and 6.7% is comfortably within its range of 4.6% to 7.4% in the 10 years to December 2019. The AI’s claims of a “profit-price spiral” do not stack up.