The covid-19 virus does mutate but to date more slowly than the seasonal flu, Dr Brendan. Specialist in infectious disease!?

At least that would seem to be the case as I read the article.

So, Two English tourists were allowed into N.Z.? And ruined the attempt eradication?

And proves the case for mandatory quarantining of all inward bound arrivals, whether infected or not!

Severe recession? Understated! And a global reality.

Our problem has been our foreign capital dependant economic model and a determination to remain in a time warp, big end of town, 50's style economically, and overly dependant on foreign money, investment and control!

Our claimed humanitarian sanctuary for Hong Kongers seems to be very selective on a few very well heeled entrepreneurs?

Tried to sell everything not nailed down and privatise or corporate all else! Created a virtual army of bureaucrats to try and make the most incompetent government on earth, full of career pollies, look halfway competent.

I mean you side of ultra-conservative politics, Dr Brendan, has not tumbled to the fact that the recovery and debt repayment is dependant on cooperative capitalism. And just a it was when we came out of the Great Depression also burdened by massive debt! Which simply went away with unprecedented economic growth! And the path forward this time if we can just get roadblocks like yourself out of the way and stop you and yours from selling the family silverware and our children's heritage!

Properly fashioned and implemented, cooperative capitalism will ensure we keep what we have, return our economic sovereignty and make every one dollar do the work of at least seven.

And dependant on sidelining Monday morning experts like you highly "medically qualified", infectious disease experts, like yourself!
Alan B.

"The shutdown also helped, but was less important".

The shutdown threw people out of work, wiped out for good many businesses, and ruined the economy - all over a severe bout of the 'flu, which hasn't killed as many people (oldies) as the normal one does. Save people already on death's doorstep, and to hell with the cost, has been the mad, mad scheme. And now the lunacy has started again in Victoria, and people are still crossing our international borders instead of being told to see it out in some s..thole they thought it was chic to visit. And all our nutty politicians are doing is at long last making them pay for their own confinement accommodation. Real tough guys!

Describing the effects of what the bungling PM, who claims to be advised by "experts", as 'disastrous' is actually a compliment for the damage he has done and is doing as he swills beer at the rugby.

The consensus among people who should have been consulted on the economic aspects of the CCP virus - but who were not - is that it will take a generation, a quarter of a century, for Australia to recover, presenting another victory in passing to Communist China. There is still nothing to say that those bastards didn't deliberately release their virus.

The West is buckling under this gift from China; and Third World countries on the African continent are dying, ripe for "help" from the Communists.

As the author says, we have got off relatively lightly because we are an "international travel backwater", not because of anything our idiot politicians have done. And the operators of the pissy little trade that adds a pissy little 10% only to our GDP are making the most noise. The same applies to the education sector, whining about the loss of Chinese students - plants of the CCP as well as health hazards.

What a mess we are in. Morons voting for even bigger morons to ruin our country and our lives.

On the positive side the danger of unlimited government's being revealed to more people at once than most's living memory.

The recession has only just started, big companies and the government are starting to restructure and retrench staff to prepare for whats going to happen by the end of the year. Recessions dont happen overnight, generally takes a year before the big crash comes. The recovery will take at least 5 years, probably 10. We havent gotten off lightly, the big economic pain is yet to come. A large proportion of people are hooked into debt they cannot repay, when the government support ends there will be a huge number of people defaulting. All that credit card debt that paid for Chinese consumer goods that the banks are carrying will not be able to be paid. Our standard of living in this country will have to drop substantially.

I forgot to add that I do not believe that the CCP deliberately released this virus initially but I do believe that they concealed the outbreak and allowed international travel knowing that it was highly contagious.

thanks Brendon. Our Pollies made the mistake to listen to the wrong 'experts'. Not one public health official or public servant has lost their job or income and yet still continue to push for lock downs. You would think they have learn't the limitations of 'experts' over the last 40 years with the hopelessly flawed gw predictions. The 'deniers' who called for sensible lockdowns and protection of the vulnerable at the start will again be shown to be far 'smarter' than the control freaks and fearmongers'. Those with tightest lockdowns have done no better than the others. And then we have the Mayor of NY sending covid into nursing homes. What can you say? If the West survives this stupidity our grandkids will wonder how so many 'edcuated' made such dumb decisions.

Where is Paul 1405? Where is Foxy? First one saying what a wonderful job Chinese Andrews has done in Victoria and the second one saying "Obey the Dear Leader" lol!
You could not make this up! We are on the edge of a cliff and about to crash down and are worrying about two 90 year olds dying?
The outcomes will be catastrophic and take years to pan out. I think we will see so many people ruined it will be a rerun of the Great Depression which was bad enough.
My real fear is that this will take years to stop as there is already talk of another new virus so permanent lock down? Lots of people would prefer to be Chinese slaves perhaps they should all be rounded up and sent one way to the gulags.

If all states had locked down properly from the beginning then there would be zero cases of community transmission in Australia. Now we have that idiot NSW premier refusing to lockdown as the virus spreads in Sydney. This is now going to be much more prolonged, have a greater detrimental effect on the economy than if states had locked down to start with. W.A. has had zero cases of community transmission for months. Australia was in a very good if not unique position to eradicate this entirely. And lets not forget NSW let the virus in to start with. Berejiklian needs to be sacked for incompetence and charged with wilful negligence. And now the answer coming from idiots is let the virus free. A poster on this forum even advocating what basically amounts to euthanasia for the old, disabled and infirm. Trump is happy because the virus is decreasing the social security bill. People in the middle ages handled the black plague better than we are handling this.

jimmy2shoes

'If all states had locked down properly from the beginning then there would be zero cases of community transmission in Australia.'

feel free to move to Victoria where they had Wuhan type lockdowns. Stay there for years if you want but don't try your idiotic experiments on the rest of us. Many of us have lived through many flu seasons without destroying our economies. I suspect strongly you are on the public purse.

THE REALITY OF ICU BED NUMBERS

1. Without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of ALL ages.

ICU wards are always heavily used/catered for - for all causes from women birth complications, infant illnesses, heart cases of 50y/old men, post cancer surgery, to increased normal flu cases (right now) in Winter.

Unlike severe flu viruses and other covids COVID-19 doesn't make most spreaders really ill. Without isolation-quarantine measures COVID-19 spreads quickly in a comparatively undetectable way.
__________________________________________

2. Source "Surge capacity of Australian intensive care units associated with COVID-19 admissions" published 30 March 2020 at http://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/surge-capacity-australian-intensive-care-units-associated-covid-19-admissions

This is the simple but deadly numbers game:

- There are 191 ICUs in Australia with available ICU beds = 2,378

Maximal estimate surge of ICU beds (an 191% increase) = 4,258

This surge would require:

- a 325% increase in senior doctors = 4092

and

- a 365% increase in ICU nurses = 42,720
________________________________________________

3. Source "IMPACT OF COVID-19: Theoretical modelling of how the health system can respond" at http://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond-summary-report.pdf

(i) modelling of an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak requires ICU beds = 35,000

(which would greatly exceed Australia’s expanded capacity of <7,000 ICU beds.)

(ii) With cases isolation and quarantine, demand is reduced to ICU beds = 17,000

(still well above expanded ICU bed capacity).

(iii) With isolation, quarantine and social distancing daily
demand is less than 5,000.
______________________________________

CONCLUSION

So without cases isolation, quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will OVERWHELM

the number of ICU beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of ALL ages.

Runner, look at what is happening in the US in some states where any lockdown was ignored. Their medical systems are being overwhelmed, in the UK there is strong evidence that many patients in nursing homes were effectively euthanised by administration of the drug Midazolam after catching Covid. The resources just arent there , as Plantagenet shows it will quickly overwhelm medical resources if it gets out of control. It is not a normal flu however much you think it to be so. What you need to realise is that this virus has will continue to mutate just like others . The next version may very well target middle aged grumpy old men who post on political forums.

Plantagenet what drugs are you on?
We have empty hospitals and medico's sitting around twiddling their thumbs. This nonsense is costing so many cancer patients to end up losing their lives next year. Plus so many people wanting "Elective" surgery will have their quality of life trashed because of all this stupidity.
I am sure we can get our ABC to make up scenes of crowded hospital wards and moan and groan and claim a brazilian people have died BUT! Let's see how many people have died this year compared to the previous ten years. In the UK the death rate is less and I will bet ours is too.
I always know when I am being lied to because you get strained and tired faces (All pretty bad acting usually, see Chinese Andrews) banging on about hard work and death. Truth is a couple of 90 year olds died but thousands are losing wages, jobs and eventually their houses. Andrews gives everybody including idiot medico's a big fat pay rise! The facts are avoided especially by the totally corrupt ABC and the idiot MSM.
You people make me sick, really really make me sick. I am not alone either.

JBowyer, all Plantagenet did was post actual factual information. What on earth is wrong with you people? Whats next? Book burning?

Jimmy, Plantagent posted no facts just rubbish! Covid has put twenty people in ICU where there is only 4,000 beds , what a joke.
We are being had mate.

"NO AVAILABLE BEDS IN 50 FLORIDA HOSPITAL ICU UNITS"

Florida has done all the wrong things that some of Australia's LIBERTARIAN COVID "experts" have been suggesting. Florida's Trump friendly "lets just have COVID-Lite measures, ie. don't worry about them, because the Economy comes first" campaign is now reaping the "benefit".

That "benefit" being COVID cases filling ICU beds - leaving no available beds for the usual diseases and accident caseloads.
_______________________________________

Voice of America News, 20th July 2020 reports http://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/no-available-beds-50-florida-hospital-icu-units

"The coronavirus outbreak in Florida grew more dire Sunday as nearly 50 hospitals throughout the state say they have no available beds in their intensive care units.

The state is not only the COVID epicenter in the United States, it is one of the world’s hot spots, with more than 12,000 new cases reported Sunday – the fifth straight day that number exceeded 10,000.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is making mask wearing in public mandatory.

Starting Monday, anyone without a face covering gets an immediate $50 fine. A third offense brings a $500 fine."
______________________________________

Florida's past ignorance COVID-Lite measures seems to be the future some COVID-Libertarians are wishing on Victoria.

plantagenet TDS

Florida deaths 22 per 100000 people 17 July
New York deaths 167 per 100000 people 17 July

I suspect plantagenet can only receive info from the fake lying left liberal media. Oh well I have seen what TDS has done to Joe! NMo surprises.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=which+state+does+florida+belong+to&form=ANNTH1&refig=2a1d69075f5e46aa8ae33ffa00b69131&sp=-1&pq=which+state+does+florida+belong+to&sc=1-34&qs=n&sk=&cvid=2a1d69075f5e46aa8ae33ffa00b69131

Dearest runner

As if it were Holy Scripture of your God of WrathNess - read this VOA string http://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/no-available-beds-50-florida-hospital-icu-units

VOA know more than your brain spurts. As they're writing about their own country.