Off Topic:

A Western entity has encouraged me to do an analysis of the EDEN-MONARO (E-M) By-Election result and to share it with you, using less formal wording.

SUMMARY

Main takeaways are that Labor won on an increased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). Main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Government's Bushfire performance – especially ScoMo’s holiday.

IN DETAIL

It is not surprising Labor won because in this situation. If the Libs won it would have be the first Fed Gov win beating an Opposition held seat candidate, in a by-election, for 100 years.

Looking at: http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-25820-117.htm

- Labor only won due to preferences. Most significantly/oddly from the SFFP. Libs would have won if they negotiated the usual preference deal with SFFP. A significant number of SFFP voters have likely been burned out, or very threatened, by the bushfires (holidaying ScoMo's main mistake).

- Labor won with just over 2,000 FEWER First Preference votes than the Libs

- Labor won on a margin of less than 1% (ie. 0.41% or 766 TPP votes - so far - as postal votes still being counted). Labor won E-M in 2019 by an even slimmer margin, only 0.15% TPP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Eden-Monaro_by-election#Two-party-preferred_history_since_1996.

- The Lib candidate speaks/presents well. She needed more media airtime to display that during the campaign.

All seems a case, in E-M, of Labor going more to the centre-right (virtually no left-union concerns in E-M, as only significant union activity seems to the nurses) and ScoMo government going to a COVID stimulus centre-left major policy (which may have picked up some young JobKeeper and JobSeeker votes).

So could be said Albo is popular, but only just. Shorten may snatch leadership back in time for 2022 Election. Or Shorten may wait for Albo to lose 2022 Election then Shorten takes the helm again as Labor leader.

Pete

CORRECTION:

Off Topic Again with Eden-Monaro's 2019 TPP margin corrected:

A Western entity has encouraged me to do an analysis of the EDEN-MONARO (E-M) By-Election result and to share it with you, using less formal wording.

SUMMARY

Main takeaways are that Labor are winning by a decreased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor are only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). Main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Government's Bushfire performance – especially ScoMo’s holiday.

IN DETAIL

It is not surprising Labor won because in this situation. If the Libs won it would have been the first Fed Gov win beating an Opposition held seat candidate, in a by-election, for 100 years.

Looking at: http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-25820-117.htm

- Labor only won due to preferences. Most significantly/oddly from the SFFP. Libs would have won if they negotiated the usual preference deal with SFFP. A significant number of SFFP voters have likely been burned out, or very threatened, by the bushfires (holidaying ScoMo's main mistake).

- Labor won with just over 2,000 FEWER First Preference votes than the Libs

- Labor won on a margin of less than 1% (ie. 0.41% or 766 TPP votes - so far - as postal votes still being counted). Labor won E-M in 2019 by a slightly larger margin, of 0.85% TPP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Eden-Monaro_by-election#Two-party-preferred_history_since_1996.

- The Lib candidate speaks/presents well. She needed more media airtime to display that during the campaign.

All seems a case, in E-M, of Labor going more to the centre-right (virtually no left-union concerns in E-M, as only significant union activity seems to the nurses) and ScoMo government going to a COVID stimulus centre-left major policy (which may have picked up some young JobKeeper and JobSeeker votes).

So could be said Albo is popular, but only just and by a decreased projected majority. Shorten may snatch leadership back in time for 2022 Election of may wait for Albo to lose 2022 Election then Shorten takes the helm again as Labor leader.

Pete

MrO

*..Alison Jane is in the pro-China camp...*

She is not alone of course. The whole of Government is with her.

And like all good liers, the lie is fed out in bite sized pieces.

The biggest lie of course is one chinaman is different from another. Great lie.

The latest formulation being fed out, is the bad Chinese are communists.

No...bad Chinese are simply Chinese per se. But the propaganda machine is wound up and the tap to the caldron of lies is open. Good Chinese are those from Hong Kong.

Bad Chinese? Bad Chinese are those with an allegiance to the communist party.

How to tell the difference? Ask them for a truthful answer.

The public are not the fool for having the lie fed to them: The fools are the gormless believievers of the obvious lie fed to them from the propaganda machine.

And from further into the evil smelling cauldron, we have the bite sized pieces disguised with the flavour of salvation.
Save the persecuted from Hong Kong.

What that means of course will be, save the wealthy cashed up Chinese from Hong Kong, who will naturally prop up the values in the pathetically wharped and manipulated housing market: The balance being the poor communist sympathisers, we don't want them.

My view is, leave them all there to face the wrath of the communist dictators, who happen to be the rightful owners and rulers of Hong Kong in the new Chinese age.

Plantagenet:

Yes it is off topic, and is actually irrelevant to most Australians.

Dan

Hi diver dan

Do you ALSO suspect:

1. The Federal Coalition Government want to allow in a greater number of Hong Kong Chinese to come here and become Australian citizens

BECAUSE they are most likely to express their thanks and have the class-wealth orientation to vote for the Federal Coalition Government in elections?

AND

2. Likewise, did not Labor (eg Keating 1983-1991) stack Western Sydney state and federal seats with south Lebanon Christian and Muslim immigrants because they were more likely to express their thanks by voting Labor?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/dfat-changes-travel-advice-for-australians-in-china/12431134

wow, it is heating up now.

It is sad about Hong Kong. But we don't want more foreigners taking the jobs that Aussie kids could get.
As it is, Chinese (and Indians) dominate the selective and private schools in Sydney. And those schools get large Federal subsidies.

Hard to say what might work with China when they seem to have limitless resources and we 're in a depression, thanks to a virus that started in.......China