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The Forum > Article Comments > Covid 19 has hit the economy hard; But where is the recovery going to come from? > Comments

Covid 19 has hit the economy hard; But where is the recovery going to come from? : Comments

By Tristan Ewins, published 3/6/2020

We can't put a price on peoples' lives and peoples' health. But many people will need to sacrifice to 'spread the burden' of funding recovery.

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Who knows where the recovery will come from, if it comes at all. It certainly will come not from the government that caused the problem in the first place. It wasn't the China virus that put so many people out of work and wrecked the economy; it was Scott Morrison's panic and over-reaction to it, based on the advice of 'experts' whose predictions - or wild guesses - were mostly wrong. Now, Morrison has entered into an unholy alliance with communist unions, who represent almost nobody, and big business, ignoring the small business owners who employ the most people, and who have suffered the most through Morrison's incompetence and lack of connection with real people
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 9:18:45 AM
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Hi Tristan,

Does Australia really need fast rail?

Does out sparse population and water difficulties warrant such an expensive exercise given that few interior cities are anywhere near the population levels of other countries where fast railway exists and links the many large cities?

sure, the Sydney to Melbourne corridor is quite busy, even by global standards, but there are few large cities in between.

What I would prefer is a faster rail network, one that is world class rather the embarrassment that is the Albury to Melbourne line, but one which is much cheaper. We can aim for 180-200km per hour rather than just jump to the expensive 300+km/h option which would require much greater infrastructure.

Australia must respond in a sensible way with infrastructure, and one that is within our means that need not emulate the biggest and fastest in the world.

We are not China, with its small ... mentality that wants to lead the world with just about everything.

We are a pragmatic people that builds in accordance to demand, albeit our railways could be a lot better.
Posted by Chris Lewis, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 9:24:22 AM
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I think we need to make daily travel between Bendigo, Albury and Melbourne viable ; and that it would create significant population growth in those areas. That's good because population growth is really straining our infrastructure and creating big problems with transit times. But 200km/hour rail would be a step up.
Posted by Tristan Ewins, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 9:30:25 AM
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Which way will the ball bounce? Stay nimble. That's how to survive in tough times.

Recognise opportunities by looking for them.

That's how populations survive. Stay unified. Divided you fall.

Don't hold cash. It's worthless, otherwise, why are those in charge of the asylum handing it out?

And otherwise, wait patiently for the arrival of hyper inflation from a propped-up property market, and its inevitable crash: And then the end will come.

Dan
Posted by diver dan, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 9:38:21 AM
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yes, but why make regional cities larger without appropriate employment beyond an expansion of the welfare sector and housing investment.

Where would the industry come from, given that farming is much less labour intensive than past decades, and manufacturing has largely gone?

It is great to have ideas, but there has to be a reason why people would move there beyond those who choose to move from large cities after selling their homes or those who want cheaper rent on welfare.
Posted by Chris Lewis, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 9:38:21 AM
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Chris, that is why you have an active industry policy as well. I better hold off on commenting or I'll run out of chances to comment. (limit of 4 a day)
Posted by Tristan Ewins, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 9:42:55 AM
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Here is a suggest Tristan

Do what Trump did and will do again.

Cut business and wage earners tax
Decrease the size of Government
Reduce Regulation.
Spend on big infrastructure projects, renewal not new.

I would add:

Defund universities and academia.
Scrap HECs

but what ever you do keep and increase the Cash Flow Boost.
Posted by imajulianutter, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 10:41:39 AM
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Ttbn,

"Who knows where the recovery will come from, if it comes at all. "

I suppose we will hold you to that. When do you reckon the recovery might come in the US ? This decade ? Different policies, different outcomes.

As for Morrison's policies beng failures, I would have thought that his prompt action and canny collaboration with the states to keep COVID deaths down has been an outstanding success, presaging a relatively rapid economy recovery across the country and promising early commercial link-ups with New Zealand.

Compared to what, you might ask ? Indeed: perhaps compared to the US, with its 106,000 deaths and another 1000-1200 each day, our (i.e. Morrison's) total of just over 100 deaths and single-figure and zero new cases each day look pretty good. Of course, the comparison is unfair, given the utter incompetence of the US leadership: to advise a relaxation of the COVID restrictions while active cases are in the hundreds of thousands is either sheer stupidity or pure evil; take your pick.

And thanks to Morrison (as a leftie, what am I saying ?!), Australia will be back in business while the US is wallowing in the disasters of its second COVID wave, maybe before the end of this year.

Joe
Posted by loudmouth2, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 10:59:27 AM
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I agree the government's handled covid 19 reasonably well so far. But they don't have a plan for recovery.
Posted by Tristan Ewins, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 11:21:29 AM
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Yes, Joe. The fact that you and other lefties are praising Morrison shows what an-out-of-place misfit he is. He gets more like Turnbull every day: Mr. Stand For Nothing, believing in nothing.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 11:28:44 AM
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Ttbn,

And we'll hold you to that too :)

Joe
Posted by loudmouth2, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 11:34:03 AM
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No sacrifice need be made by anyone except ideologues like you Tristan, from both sides of the aisle. From your side by all those who like you, mindlessly oppose any form of nuclear power and by virtue of completely bogus, fearmongering ignorance writ large.

And scientific fact ignored because for all the idealogues, scientific facts can be unpalatable and or inconvenient to the established narrative? Or those puppet masters pulling their strings? Murdoch? Newscorp? This or that terrorising shock jock? Next weeks poll?

Recovery? MSR thorium and the world's cheapest power! If you do not understand the implications of energy in the economy and the intended recovery? Then get out of the way and make room at the top for someone who does.

I mean, how long is this vital information to be censored so as to allow the control freak to turn a silk purse into a sow's ear.

Sacrifice? Is that your very best idea?

God give me strength!

Where do these hopeless folk get the idea, they can lead anyone anywhere as long as they wear their self imposed ideological blindfolds and ear stoppers?

Cannot imagine what million-plus, annual medical tourists, would do for rural and regional Australia, the recovery?

Given that would require a changed mindset! Cannot imagine there could be something vastly superior to their preferred renewables given like the coal lobby, there would seem to be, vast vested interest in particular outcomes

And therefore the recovery can go hang itself.

I'll be alright jack and so will the PM with his half a mill plus, annual salary.

Power that costs pennies and an inexhaustible water supply wherever we need it plus inexhaustible gas that we can never ever run out of. Cooperative capitalism as created by the government, employee co-ops! And millions put back to work in import replacing industry!

These are not new ideas by any means, just ignored by those at the top with their grubby grimy hands on the economic levers? Ably assisted by their know nothing advisors?

Go figure?
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Wednesday, 3 June 2020 12:14:25 PM
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Nuclear energy I hear you say? That's at least 20 years down the track given the build time, even if we started now?

Wrong, we could build one inside two years! The other 18 required to get the insane self-imposed prohibitions repealed/overcome the endless mindless, bogus rejections/political/profit-motivated interference?

Walk away safe, carbon-free, MSR thorium SMR's could be perfected inside a year! Then mass-produced as factory-built, shipping container-sized SMR's we could deploy virtually anywhere, even currently waterless desert!

One can turn turbines with just hot air and the venturi effect.

Moreover, the inventor and patent holder of the first nuclear reactor, Alvin Weinberg was neither an idiot nor scientifically challenged.

If Alvin liked and preferred MSR and thorium? And he clearly did and was sacked for it!

Then we should take a good long hard look at it

I mean, just 8 grams of thorium contains enough energy to power your house and car for 100 years! The cost of mining and refining that 8 grams? Around $100.00 That's just $1.00 a year.

Step outside into your yard, fill a cubic metre box with yours/almost any dirt anywhere on the planet, you'll be able to recover around 8 grams of thorium!

Imagine that powering multiple desalination projects
all over the joint!

Imagine one of the final waste decay products, alpha particle bismuth 213, being able to create massive medical tourism as annual milllions queue for their repeal from otherwise, death sentence cancer?

Given this, all but free waste product, has proved itself time and again, in numerous trials around the world as a miracle cancer cure! And if rolled out here to aid an intended recovery, may well send big pharma to the wall?

Why do you think we haven't got it, genius?

A recovery you say? Sacrifice you say?

Well, first cab of the sacrifice rank has to be, the mindless, ignorance personified, anti-nuclear stance of labor! And boy geniuses like yourself, Tristan.

We could spend another ten years debating an energy policy, you think?
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Wednesday, 3 June 2020 1:22:48 PM
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Only a lefty could think ripping more money out of the private sector to feed an even more bloated public sector could ever support a recovery. Government needs to step back, reduce spending on bureaucrats, & let the money saved flow to the private sector which is the only area capable of creating real growth.

Halving the public sector, & most definitely the funding of the ABC is the starting point of a recovery.

If the Victorians think an assured permanent loss making project such as fast rail is a good thing for Victoria, then let Victoria fund both the building & continued losses itself. Just keep the rest of the country out of such a definite quagmire.

Stop any & I mean any & all forms of immigration, until every Ozzie who really wants a job has one, & then keep the numbers down to 1950 levels there after. If the only way to create enough employment is building houses, by all means build houses, but for Ozzies, not immigrants & most definitely not so called refugees. There are enough Ozzies needing housing to fill any migrant gap.

I believe the definition of a refugee is the side of an internal struggle that lost, & we don't need that sort of people here to build houses for, & feed welfare to.

The very last thing we need is big construction projects which will merely feed large corporations & their already overpaid unionists work force. It certainly won't help the little people, particularly in the country out of sight of the big capitals.
Posted by Hasbeen, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 5:08:16 PM
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Tristan, really fast rail should be just that, not something that's already obsolete before its completion and should be still the fastest safest form of passenger travel 100 years from now.

And fully funded if the corridor is resumed as the very first step and a mile wide.

Once complete, land around stations along the way can be rezoned, subdivided and sold as urban house blocks, CBD's and industrial estates.

And means if we're smart? The profits made from the resale of newly rezoned land, will foot the entire construction bill!

And if constructed along the eastern seaboard, able to take full advantage of the third busiest transport corridor in the world!

And unbeatable in cost and inherent safety.

It's a project which will, if powered by MSR thorium, be the most affordable transport option in that space and for the next century and beyond as VLT!

VLT is faster than a 747 and will cruise at 900 klms.

How many transport options would transport you from Melbourne to Brisbane, CBD to CBD inside 3 express, no stops, hours? Or Sydney to Newcastle or Wollongong inside a very slick 20 minutes.

I've heard all the Monday morning experts tell us we can't/shouldn't do it, choose an option that allows CO2 spewing jets to patrol friendly skies. And because they just do not understand the transformative effect of an impossible project! We could not/should not have built the Snowy mountains project, because it was way too expensive way too big, etc, etc!

Likewise, the very same white elephant arguments were mounted by the same bean counters, when the Now famous Sydney Harbour Bridge was built and as suitable for today's traffic and volume by our then visionary leaders!

As opposed to the (rabbit in the spotlight) career pollies/hacks making all the decisions now with a level of competence that'd be sorely tried inside local government? We/they've been talking about very fast trains for over twenty years!

The end result? Something that'll cost four times as much today, even when adjusted for inflation!

Its how we've always done stuff here!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Wednesday, 3 June 2020 5:08:17 PM
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Any profits from any land sale should go to those who own the land, not some government resumption. Talk about robber baron, no thanks.
Posted by Hasbeen, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 5:34:41 PM
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Hi Tristen - you state

"Some have suggested a 'HECS-style loan' for those unemployed as a consequence of this crisis.

Because this discriminates, it is unfair. Richard Denniss – speaking on ABC radio – is correct about this. Though I think he is wrong about HECS more broadly. Income contingent loans to pay for government support of individuals during the crisis would mean a veritable 'labour market lottery' as to who was left with debt. Denniss agrees with this much. But also 'income contingent loans' have a longer history of losing their progressivity as governments reduce thresholds to help pay for other endeavours – such as ubiquitous corporate welfare."

So I ask quite simply - why to Australians continue to have to pay for HECS debt?

Seriously - please investigate the amount of taxpayers dollars NOT being refunded to Government (Aussie taxpayers) under the HECS debt
system.

Please investigate those under HECS "students" who have no intention of repaying debt, and just take out another "course".

It may be of much relevance - now you can investigate.
Posted by SAINTS, Thursday, 4 June 2020 2:58:47 AM
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The problem is that many students never get a well-paid job despite their HECS debts. Distributing the cost through Company Tax and income tax means people pay in proportion to the gains made ; including by corporations who exploit skilled labour. The problem is that repayment thresholds have been reduced well below average wages.
Posted by Tristan Ewins, Thursday, 4 June 2020 11:49:21 AM
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"Covid 19 has hit the economy hard"

The economy is not a sentient being, so hit is as hard as you want, it will never hurt!

The problem is that government (and others) are too attached to the economy-thing and addicted to its ghostly statistics (such as GDP, employment-rate and inflation-rate), so whenever the economy is hit they cry "Ouch" as if they were hit themselves.

COVID-19 could teach us to relax and have a fresh look. No one was hungry and in the absence of tourists, even those who previously lived in the streets suddenly found themselves in hotel rooms. There is no need to return to the old rat-race where everyone had to fight for a "job" just to be able to survive, regardless whether that job was ethical or contributed anything real to our quality of life. Even now there are still so many "employed" people around who could be contributing more to our well-being by becoming "unemployed".
Posted by Yuyutsu, Friday, 5 June 2020 1:16:15 AM
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Tristen you state -
"The problem is that many students never get a well-paid job despite their HECS debts. Distributing the cost through Company Tax and income tax means people pay in proportion to the gains made ; including by corporations who exploit skilled labour. The problem is that repayment thresholds have been reduced well below average wages."

My response - so why are students going to University in the first place. They are aware of HECS debt.

Let's get to the basics - University entrance was "lowered" to enable tertiary entrance for lower levels.

Over the years these students didn't continue for whatever reason - however Australian Taxpayers still repaying this debt.

The fault being the "entrance level" into University Education into Australia and the courses aspiring students take up.

The course/s offered to any student should be reviewed by Government being relevant to student being able to employed by any company in Australia.

This review is seriously overdue.
Posted by SAINTS, Friday, 5 June 2020 9:23:54 PM
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Some courses are valuable just in the sense of promoting critical thinking and helping society reflect and act upon its condition. As well as supporting public intellectuals who contribute to the public sphere.

Some people will also experience big setbacks - accidents/disability - and may never be able to pay off debt.
Posted by Tristan Ewins, Saturday, 6 June 2020 11:07:14 AM
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Dear SAINTS,

«My response - so why are students going to University in the first place.»

For a variety of reasons: to have fun, to find romantic partners, to avoid having to work, to live away from their family, to satisfy the wishes and expectations of their parents (as was in my case). Only a minority are there because they wish to find a good job.

---

Dear Tristan,

«Some courses are valuable just in the sense of promoting critical thinking and helping society reflect and act upon its condition.»

Don't we all do this anyway?
Nevertheless, we are not paid for it, nor expect to be paid.

«As well as supporting public intellectuals who contribute to the public sphere.»

Would you feel comfortable about supporting, out of your own hard-earned tax-money, also such public intellectuals whose views greatly differ from yours?
Posted by Yuyutsu, Saturday, 6 June 2020 8:45:19 PM
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Hey tristan,

"We can't put a price on peoples' lives and peoples' health. But many people will need to sacrifice to 'spread the burden' of funding recovery."

Doubt we'll ever get you to plow any fields or harvest and crops right Tristan?
In your socialist utopia do you wear the Chairman Mao pantsuit?

Tell me, what's the most you ever got your hands dirty in your entire life?
When mum made you take the bins out and bring the shopping in?

How much of this 'burden' are you planning taking upon yourself?
- Or are you just directing and supervising this effort?

...since YOU mentioned it, and all.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 7 June 2020 7:24:14 PM
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AC ; I suppose you'd rather the government do nothing and we end up with a a Depression of 1930s proportions?
Posted by Tristan Ewins, Sunday, 7 June 2020 7:49:20 PM
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