um, yeah, the BOM often gets it wrong, hardly a surprise to anyone.

My memory, although as a lay person watching Landline, is that the BOM did predict a dry 2019 and more normal rain from Autumn 2020.

So what are you saying, get rid of the BOM and have no one try and predict future weather patterns?

Maybe we should go back to the days of ancient kings who relied on astrologists.

Weather predictions are becoming harder to predict by obvious reasons. The only way to fix it is predictions have to be made more frequently.

Airports get updated predictions every 10 minutes.

It's called climate change.

Winds maybe up to 40% stronger & waves may be up to twice the height !
I wonder if the cutting of large Jets flying over the past three months has had any positive impact on our weather ?
BOM are doing a good job but I do wonder at the costs of the inaccuracies.
Plus, people who mainly contribute nothing to anything are the ones who demand 100% performance from others !

Good on you Brendan, before I even start reading! It is my sincere belief that the BOM is the most useless department ever to attach itself to the taxpayer teat. It can't even get day to day forecasts right, but insists on telling us what will happen in 2030 or 2050. Your title says it all.

According to someone who does know what he is talking about, on most subjects, Rowan Dean, the whole world has kicked off the year colder than it's been since the early 19th century; and that includes the northern hemisphere, where summer is beginning. BOMs all over the world missed out on seeing that coming.

I don't watch or listen to weather 'forecasts' these days. I see what things look like when I put up the blind in the morning, and tap my barometer on the way to the bathroom. I'm too old to get any pleasure watching some bimbo pointing at a map and talking as if she invented the weather, and my wife doesn't like the language I use to describe the wild guesses.

Chris
You say that "My memory, is that the BOM did predict a dry 2019 and more normal rain from Autumn 2020".

It is true that the BOM did predict the dry spring and summer of 2019. You, however, fail to mention that there was already two and a half years of (unpredicted) very severe drought at this stage. The Bureau also in its seasonal forecasts did not predict the widespread rain that fell between February and April 2020. It only changed its tune after the season had broken.

I am not saying that no meteorologist should try to make medium or long term predictions or than we should abolish the BOM and use astrology instead.

I am saying that seasonal or long term forecasts should only be publicised and promoted where they are reliable (which they currently are not). Alternatively the BOM could emphasise that such forecasts are experimental and of low reliability.

There is no point, for example, in BOM trying to predict whether Christmas Day 2020 in Sydney or wherever will be a sunny day. The BOM can't predict that far ahead. They should stick to 7 day or at most 14 day forecasts until the accuracy of their long term forecasts improves.

Bren, yes I get your point.

I actually only consider next two days with regard to BOM predictions.

But I do defend BOM on basis that it is obviously hard to predict weather patterns.

It may well be that global warming and its effects make this task is even more unpredictable.

Hence, we should be looking for ways that can improve forecasts; I hope the BOM is doing that.

models, models, models. Only as good as the information put in them. So far whether they are health or gw models the 'experts' have failed miserably.

Localised weather reports are amazingly accurate IMO.

I trust BOM predictions which are safely reliable when predicting ocean weather and conditions, which includes currents and current speeds and sea swell, wind changes and speeds. Using BOM radar images as confirmation is an available tool.

Admittedly, these are predictions spanning days not seasons.
Obviously, the longer the predictive path, the more unreliable. The short term predictions are not to be scoffed at.

Dan

Meteorologists? We may be in line for a slightly wetter than normal winter/some really good rain, early summer?

One expects a hotter climate, maybe even record heat waves during a waxing phase of the sun as has happened before during just such events?

But never ever during a normal, cyclical waning phase, when in the past a waning phase has lead to advancing ice/cooler climate

2017 was the then second hotted year on record and during a typical la Nina/waning phase. Should've allowed even the insane coal boosting cohort, a chance to reflect, examine the evidence, the scientific consensus, then change their minds?

Coal could still figure prominently in our future if we were to use the gas we could extract from it as a transitory transport fuel using the waste heat from MSR thorium as the essential/almost costless heat source from that endeavour, ensure that coal as a viable if limited future (30 years?) as we transition out of all fossil fuels.

Scrubbed coal gas can be fed into ceramic fuel cells to make domestic/industrial electricity and given we did? Ensure that the exhaust product was mostly pristine water vapour!

Could be used in steel production as the reduction agent instead of coal that would reduce the amount of CO2 (about60%?) this industry creates!

Hydrogen used instead all but eliminate CO emission from steel production?

Coal gas can be compressed, used as CNG for all ground transport or passed through a simple catalytic conversion process to convert it to liquid methanol to replace liquid high octane petrol. in racing cars/prop planes?

Time to get real about climate change, use the essential transition to quite massively boost/turbocharge the economy/our manufacturing sector.

Do just this much, unprecedented economic growth and essential tax reform will ensure our young folk have a very nice future where they can follow their dreams/just let the economic growth take care of the necessary debt burden
Alan B.

Obviously, the longer the predictive path, the more unreliable. The short term predictions are not to be scoffed at
diver dan,
Well said, I totally agree with that !

Nobody or organisation is perfect, except perhaps for Brendan.

Bring back Monty.......

What nonsense and all who wasted their time in commenting INCLUDING me.. Duuuhh!

An interesting article about the weather.

As we read the article, and the comments, please do remember that 'weather' is the day-by-day changes to temperature, wind, rain and other things while 'climate' is the decade-by-decade or century-by-century changes to all the things that make up the daily weather.

The weather can be all over the place while the climate is a smoother curve and it is easier to read long-term changes in climate.

Did anyone forecast snow in California at the beginning go the northern hemisphere summer (late) while it was snowing before winter (early) in as, Vic and NSW?